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Summary
Models indicate a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD) for January to March 2026, meaning extreme wet or dry conditions are unlikely, although a broad range of rainfall outcomes remains possible. Both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal for January to March 2026 and February to April 2026.
Recent conditions:
- December rainfall was below average for the SWLD. Maximum temperatures very much above average and minimum temperatures average to above average.
- Since November there have been 3 tropical cyclones in the Australian region, Fina, Bakung and Hayley. Occasionally tropical cyclones (such as Seroja in April 2021) track south. During La Nina years, more cyclones form, and these systems are more likely to track further south as tropical lows. For more information on the Australian tropical cyclone season check the Bureau of Meteorology webpage.
Rainfall summary
Rainfall from 1 November 2025 to 4 January 2026 was above average in parts of the SWLD due to a series of low-pressure systems and several troughs drawing tropical moisture southward. The highest total since November was 136 mm at the Bureau’s Kimberley weather station near Denmark, while the lowest was 3 mm at Lancelin East. The rainfall decile map shows mixed deciles ranks for the SWLD.
Figure 1: Rainfall (mm) totals for 1 November 2025 to 4 January 2026 in the SWLD. Kimberley has recorded the highest total of 136 mm, the lowest was Lancelin East with 3 mm.
Figure 2: Rainfall decile map for 1 November 2025 to 4 January 2026 in the SWLD. Map indicates mixed rainfall deciles for the SWLD.
Rainfall outlooks
Three-month and single-month rainfall outlooks are derived from a range of national and international climate models. The outlooks are presented as the probability of rainfall being below, above, or neutral relative to the median rainfall (Note: A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible). To provide a more localised perspective, the SWLD has been divided into 2 regions, allowing for tailored rainfall outlooks specific to each area.
Figure 3: Rainfall outlooks are in 2 sections based on location in the SWLD ̶ first group includes Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, second group includes Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts.
Rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for January 2026. This neutral model consensus applies up until June 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. Forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 4: Single month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to June 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for January to June. Forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for January to March 2026; 10 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. This neutral outlook continues until April to June 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible.
Figure 5: Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to April to June 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. Forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for January 2026. This neutral model consensus continues up until May 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. For June 2026, below median rainfall is suggested, however only 3 models forecast this far ahead and have very little skill.
Figure 6: Single month model summaries of rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to June 2026. Model consensus is for a neutral outlook up until May. June currently has a below median outlook. Forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for January to March 2026; 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. This neutral outlook continues until April to June 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible. Forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 7: Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to April to June 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. Forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Important disclaimer
The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.
Copyright © State of Western Australia (Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development), 2026
