5 August 2026

As the on-again-off-again US negotiations and fighting with Iran continue, recent polls are showing even support for the war amongst Republicans is starting to wane. A Politico poll found a 13% drop, from 50% to 37%, of self-identified MAGA Trump voters who think the United States should continue fighting with Iran, regardless of the impact on costs in the United States. At the same time, there was a 7% rise, from 12%-19%, of the same cohort who think the war should not continue, regardless of costs. The following week, an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found GOP support for the war dropped by 10% since June.

These views are extending beyond sentiment as a new anti-Trump, anti-Iran war segment of the MAGA movement is beginning to coalesce, as talk grows of forming a new political party. Over the weekend, former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X, condemning the war and President Trump and announcing, “The movement has begun,” accompanied by a photo with MAGA Trump critics. Led by former Fox News star Tucker Carlson, who said he no longer supports the Republican Party, the group in the photo also includes outgoing Congressman Thomas Massie and former director of the National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent.

This group signifies the wider cracks that have been forming as MAGA draws closer to a post-Trump future. The Heritage Foundation, responsible for Project 2025, has seen dozens of staff exit over rifts in the direction of the organisation. And the fully Republican-controlled Congress is pushing back on the controversial “anti-weaponisation” package and look unlikely to progress the SAVE America Act, two of the top priorities for the Trump administration in 2026.

Congress will look quite different after the midterms, with most Trump critics gone and Democrats likely picking up a number of seats. However, as President Trump approaches the lame-duck phase of his presidency, the questions of who carries the MAGA mantle and what MAGA looks like after Trump will be hotly contested.

Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact

Lead image: Senator Mitch McConnell at a senate vote in June 2026 at the US Capitol
in Washington, DC. (Photo by Nathan Posner via Getty Images)

"My REAL Polling Numbers, not those made up by the Fake News Media, are the best they have ever been."

President Trump on Truth Social | 4 August 2026

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This is an excerpt of Here's one way that the Pentagon is buying drones faster by Research Associate Tara Luckock.

Tara Luckock
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Upcoming event

CONFERENCE

Sydney International Strategy Forum 2026

From the Iran War to energy markets and Chinese ballistic missile tests in the Pacific, 2026 has been a year marked by disruption and disorder. In its 75th year, the ANZUS Treaty remains a source of stability enhanced by strengthened ties among like-minded partners across the Indo-Pacific. Yet questions are also growing about the trajectory of American power, Chinese intentions towards Taiwan, the impact of the trans-Atlantic rift, and the growing weaponisation of economic interdependence.

Will ANZUS and the alliances in the Indo-Pacific be overwhelmed by this disorder or stand as a collective breakwater?

Join us to analyse, debate and interpret these dynamics in real time with leading experts from the United States, Australia and the Indo-Pacific at the 4th annual Sydney International Strategy Forum. Confirmed speakers include:

Dr Kurt Campbell | Chairman and Co-Founder of The Asia Group and former US Deputy Secretary of State
Dr Janine Davidson | President of Metropolitan State University of Denver and former US Under Secretary of the Navy
The Hon. Randall Schriver | Chairman of the Board at The Institute for Indo-Pacific Security and former US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs
Peter Varghese AO | Chancellor at the University of Queensland and former Secretary of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Bilahari Kausikan | Singaporean academic and former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore
Assoc. Prof. Sheena Chestnut Greitens | Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and Director of the University of Texas’ Asia Policy Program