22 July 2026

Less than a month after the memorandum of understanding to end the Iran war was signed, hostilities again broke out between the United States and Iran. In the past week, three American service members were killed by Iranian missile and drone strikes in the region. On 7 July, President Trump wrote to Congress to inform them that fighting resumed, starting the clock on a new 60-day window for military activity that is not subject to congressional approval.

While Iran and the United States have traded fire almost every day since then, US actions indicate a level of restraint that may be keeping the door open to further diplomacy. The rhetoric from the Trump administration is toned down from the height of the war when President Trump posted that “a whole civilisation will die tonight.” Now he is focused on getting back to negotiations, saying, “We're going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”

Another key aspect is the scope — the US efforts are more tightly focused on the Strait of Hormuz. They began attacking again after US forces said Iran was attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Even as Iran has struck sites across the region, particularly US-linked facilities in the region, the US response has largely stayed on the strait.

However, this may be shifting as President Trump announced US forces would strike Pickaxe Mountain “pretty soon”, where it is believed Iran moved many of its nuclear centrifuges. As with many aspects of the war, this stage between ceasefire and full-scale war has been a moveable feast. As USSC Research Director Jared Mondschein told ABC News, the current US fighting seems to signal a new status quo that is neither full-scale war nor peace; however, this will face the looming reality of midterm elections in the United States.

Congressional decisions to either prolong or end the war (or a failure to do either) will implicate each of the roughly 400 members of Congress who are running for re-election in November.

President Trump has said the midterms “won’t have any impact on me” and won’t change his plans in Iran, but as even more Republicans openly break with Trump, it will be a factor in deciding votes and the make-up of the next Congress.

Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact

Lead image: Workers clean up wreckage around a damaged bridge, following US airstrikes carried out a day earlier, on 17 July 2026 in the southern Hormozgan Province, Iran.
(Handout Photo by Morteza Akhoundi via Getty Images)

"We're not finished at all, but if we left right now, it would take them a long time, years, years, to rebuild."

President Trump speaking to the press | 21 July 2026

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Upcoming events

SEMINAR

Public health, Science and trust in the Trump era

In this public seminar co-hosted by the University of Sydney Law School, Sydney Infectious Diseases and the United States Studies Centre, Professor Lawrence Gostin, Distinguished University Professor at Georgetown University, will review the impact of the second Trump administration’s policies on public health in the United States, and on global health. Following his keynote presentation, Professor Gostin will be joined by a panel of two eminent Australian public health experts, Professor Julie Leask AO, and Professor Andrew Wilson AO, to discuss the implications of the US retreat from global health for Australia.

How vulnerable is Australia to loss of trust in our own public health institutions, and in science itself? Are falling vaccination rates a symptom of this? What can be done?

USSC CEO Dr Michael Green will moderate the discussion and the seminar will feature opportunities for Q&A with the audience.

DATE AND TIME

22 July 2026
6.00pm–7.45pm AEST

WHERE

Sydney Law School, Law Foyer (Level 2 - street level entrance), New Law Building F10, University of Sydney

DETAILS

Free, but registration is essential

Register

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The Hon. Randall Schriver | Chairman of the Board at The Institute for Indo-Pacific Security and former US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs
Peter Varghese AO | Chancellor at the University of Queensland and former Secretary of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Bilahari Kausikan | Singaporean academic and former Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore
Assoc. Prof. Sheena Chestnut Greitens | Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and Director of the University of Texas’ Asia Policy Program