No images? Click here

Logo
 

18 September 2024

Second Trump attack unlikely to move the needle

In the wildest election cycle in living memory, former president Donald Trump survived a second attempt on his life – this time at his private golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

The would-be assassin, 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh, allegedly aimed an assault weapon at Trump through the fence of the golf club before he was spotted by Secret Service agents. A man with a history of criminal convictions and mental health issues, Routh was reportedly carrying a GoPro camera to broadcast the murder.

Political watchers hesitated to say whether the incident will have any significant impact on the polls. In a deeply polarised country, voter opinion - following a string of election shocks - appears to have has "calcified." While Trump received an outpouring of sympathy and a bump in the polls after a shooter targeted him at a televised rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July, analysts note that it was only small.

While an important poll out of Iowa shows Vice President Kamala Harris with significant momentum in that solidly red state – only trailing Trump by 4 points, compared to President Joe Biden who trailed Trump by 18 points in June – polling averages in 7 critical swing states show the race is still extremely close and within the standard margin of error.

 

NEWS WRAP

War of words over AUKUS

  • Defence experts criticise ex-Labor leaders | USSC Professor Peter Dean responded to claims by former Labor statesmen Paul Keating, Gareth Evans and Bob Carr that AUKUS will undermine Australia’s sovereignty, alongside other top defence experts in The Australian. Recent USSC polling showed that 51% of Australians continue to support the AUKUS submarine pact, compared to 19% who disagree. READ MORE HERE  
     

  • Ukraine eyes long-range missiles | President Biden is weighing up whether to grant Kyiv Western-made long-range missiles that would allow it to strike deep into Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the decision “will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are “at war” with Russia. READ MORE HERE
     

  • US commandos in West Africa | The United States is expanding its footprint on the coast of West Africa in a counterinsurgency campaign against Islamist militants in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The militants have caused 38,000 fatalities there since 2017, according to the Pentagon’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies. READ MORE HERE
     

  • US diplomats face pay cut | A partisan fight over government funding could lead to a permanent average pay cut of US$21,000 for thousands of American diplomats next month, if lawmakers fail to reach a funding agreement. Congress has until 1 October to avoid a government shutdown. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Hate mail for Taylor Swift | Former president Donald Trump declared his “hate” for Taylor Swift on his social media account, after the pop icon endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris on Instagram. Swift’s post reportedly drove over 400,000 people to a voter registration website. READ MORE HERE

 

“I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!”

Former president Donald Trump on Truth Social | 16 September 2024

 

EVENT

Two weeks after the US elects its next president, the United States Studies Centre will host its flagship conference, the Sydney International Strategy Forum – bringing together key national security strategists from the Biden-Harris and Trump-Pence administrations, along with other experts and senior policymakers from the United States, Australia, Japan, Korea and elsewhere – to assess the outcome of the election and its impact on the world.

The forum will dive into how the next US administration will address challenges such as China’s rising influence, regional security architecture, and economic integration in the Indo-Pacific. It will also provide unrivalled insight into the next steps on AUKUS and defence cooperation, US trade policy and the decoupling debate.

WHEN
20 November 2024

WHERE
The Fullerton Hotel, 1 Martin Place, Sydney, NSW 2000

COST 
Standard ticket $750, student ticket $400

BOOK HERE
 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Did you USSC?

  • REPORT | Expanding the National Security Innovation Base: How Australia and the United States can collaborate to harness their commercial technology ecosystems
    USSC Research Associate Sophie Mayo on how to incentivise commercial tech companies to produce cutting-edge military technology for AUKUS. READ HERE
     
  • REPORT | Engaging with reality in the Indian Ocean
    Dr Arzan Tarapore on how India, Australia and the United States must deepen their naval cooperation to offset China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean. READ HERE
     
  • COMMENTARY | Trump and Harris trade insults and competing visions: Experts give their verdicts on the US presidential debate
    USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein on the first Trump-Harris debate. READ HERE
     
  • COMMENTARY | The ghosts of 1968 are haunting America, and it will get more spooky
    USSC Non-Resident Fellow Bruce Wolpe on a wild election year. READ HERE
     
  • COMMENTARY | Another assassination attempt, baseless claims about pets, and Taylor Swift: The US election is wild, but does any of it matter?
    USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein on the calcification of the American electorate. READ HERE
 

BY THE NUMBERS

Americans and allies alarmed by political violence in the United States 

Polling from the USSC's Allies and partners poll 2024 found that Americans and their allies remain worried about political unrest in the United States. Over three-quarters of Americans (79%) and Australians (76%) said they were concerned about the threat of political violence in the United States. Only 12% of Australians and 11% of Americans reported being "not at all concerned," with roughly 10% in both countries uncertain. 

The USSC's full polling report, which also covers views on the functioning of US democracy, the effectiveness of Congress, and the impact of partisan polarisation, is available here. 

 

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#AUKUSAnniversary

FOLLOW USSC ON X

Manage your email preferences  |  Forward this email to a friend

United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006

​www.ussc.edu.au  |  us-studies@sydney.edu.au

TwitterFacebookLinkedInInstagramYouTube
 
 
 

The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economic security, emerging technology, politics, society and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds awareness of the dynamics shaping America , their implications for Australia – and critically – solutions for the Alliance.


CRICOS Number: 00026A

Unsubscribe