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15 January 2025
Pulse check on Biden’s final days
As President Joe Biden finishes his last few days in office there are several major international issues where there may be progress before he hands over the keys to president-elect Trump.
Ceasefire in Gaza
Envoys for both Biden and Trump attended talks with Qatar seeking to establish a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of further hostages. Spokespeople for both Israel and Hamas confirmed progress and recent drafts of the deal included the release of up to 33 Israeli hostages. A major announcement is expected ahead of Trump’s inauguration on 20 January.
War in Ukraine
Even with Ukraine fighting into Russia, little has shifted in the war in Ukraine as it approaches the third anniversary of the start of fighting. On Monday, Biden spoke of the “potential for a bright future” in Ukraine. However, questions swirl about president-elect Trump’s approach, with his most recent estimate saying he hoped to resolve the conflict “long before six months.”
Competition with China
In one of his last acts in office, President Biden implemented new restrictions on the export of AI-powering microchips, in a move that aims to limit China’s military and industrial growth. The new global export framework has three tiers of regulations for AI chips and technology, but partner countries including Australia and Japan face no restrictions.
NEWS WRAP
Immigration flares tensions in Trump team
Musk vs MAGA | Chief MAGA proponent of the first Trump administration, Steve Bannon, has lashed out at Elon Musk, saying he is, “a truly evil, very bad guy.” The clash is an escalation of tensions over immigration policy, with MAGA supporters calling for a hard line on immigration while Musk backs the H-1B visa program to bring skilled immigrants to the United States. READ HERE
Midwinter fires | At least 24 people, including an Australian, have been killed in wildfires in California. Australia and the United States regularly partner on firefighting and Australian officials have pledged support, but said that none has been requested yet. Fires burning in the middle of the California winter are a new phenomenon and threaten to stretch resources during Australia’s peak fire season. READ HERE
Special counsel report released | Even though former special counsel Jack Smith chose to end his prosecution of President-elect Trump and resign just days before Trump's inauguration, the Justice Department has released the first volume of the investigation into Trump’s actions to attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The report says it, “assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial” but the policy not to prosecute a sitting president led him to drop the case. READ HERE
200,000 expected in DC for inauguration | While fewer attended in 2016 than expected, 25,000 military and law enforcement personnel will be in Washington DC to help maintain order as officials prepare for about a quarter of a million people, both supporters and protesters, for President-elect Trump’s inauguration next week. This follows the most turbulent and violent election cycle in modern history. READ HERE
Hegseth grilled by Senate | Trump’s pick to head the Department of Defense, former Fox News anchor Pete Hegseth, faced tough questioning from the Senate Armed Services Committee. Questions centred around his lack of experience, history with drinking and opposition to women in combat. READ HERE
"Thanks to our administration, the United States is winning the worldwide competition."
President Biden in a State Department speech | 13 January 2025
BY THE NUMBERS
3% of GDP new target for defence spending in Australia
Australian military spending has always lagged behind US defence spending as a portion of GDP. It usually hovers around 2% compared to 3.5-4% of GDP for US spending. Last week, President-elect Trump said NATO members should lift their defence spending targets to 5% of GDP. The Australian Government has vowed to raise defence spending to 3% by the end of the decade and, as USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Prof. Peter Dean told the Australian Financial Review, 3% of GDP is a level supported by many experts.
Stay tuned…new look coming soon
The US administration is changing and so is the 46th. Stay tuned for a new title and new look, coming soon. This newsletter will continue to deliver weekly insights on the latest US news and politics straight to your inbox. It will be your playbook to help navigate the next four years.
Geopolitical trends to watch in 2025
On Monday, 20 January 2025, President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. He has said he’ll end the war in Ukraine before he takes office and war continues to escalate in the Middle East. Australia itself will host a federal election in 2025 which may shift international relationships.
What sort of impact would Trump’s economic, trade, and technology policies have on Australian businesses? How do the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East impact the Indo-Pacific? What are the key international watch points for Australia in 2025?
To discuss these issues and provide a briefing on geopolitical trends and what they mean for government and business, United States Studies Centre (USSC) CEO Dr Michael Green and Director of Economic Security Hayley Channer will host a public briefing followed by audience Q&A.
Dr Michael Green and Hayley Channer are also leaders of the University of Sydney | Sydney Executive Plus+ Geopolitics and business sprint. Registrations now open for the 20 March – 03 April 2025 cohort. Download a sprint outline here.
WHEN
6:00-7:00pm AEDT
Thursday, 30 January 2025
WHERE
The Michael Spence Building (F23) at the Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney
COST
Free, but registration is essential
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
