NEWS WRAP

Republicans react to potential Trump arrest

• Republicans rally around Trump as potential arrest looms | Rather than focusing on the party’s policy agenda at a retreat in Florida, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had to pivot to focus on former President Trump. As a grand jury meets in New York while Trump warns of an imminent arrest, Republicans are preparing investigations into the District Attorney targeting Trump. READ MORE HERE
   
• Xi meets ‘dear friend’ Putin with United States on his mind | Chinese President Xi Jinping met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin this week, ostensibly to discuss Xi’s 12-point peace plan for Ukraine. However, even his shoring-up of ties with Putin is inextricably linked with a hypothetical conflict with the United States in the Indo-Pacific.
  READ MORE HERE
   
• SVB collapse leading to tighter controls in Australia | As the post-mortem continues on Silicon Valley Bank and the near-failure of Credit Suisse, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has started to request more information from banks about start-ups and crypto investments to mitigate risks. READ MORE HERE
   
• Russian jet reportedly scrambled to intercept US bombers | Two bombers approaching Russia’s border led the Russian Federation to scramble a jet as a response. Russia claims they were US B-52 bombers approaching the border, but the United States has yet to respond. READ MORE HERE
   
• Twenty years since US pre-emptive invasion of Iraq | Monday marked 20 years since former President George W. Bush announced the US military conducted a pre-emptive strike on Iraq “to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger.” READ MORE HERE

EVENT

The fight for democracy in Asia

The United States Studies Centre and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) will host a special event to hear from leaders across the region about the state of play for democracy and how aligned countries can work together. The event will feature a keynote address followed by a panel discussion.

Australian economist Professor Sean Turnell spent much of his professional career studying the Myanmar economy and moved there to advise the State Counsellor of Myanmar Aung San Suu Kyi. After the February 2021 coup d’état toppled the democratically-elected government and the military assumed control of the country, Turnell was detained and imprisoned for nearly two years along with almost 6,000 others while more than 800 people were killed in the violent uprising.

Panel discussion: Regional approaches to supporting democracy

• Dr Marty Natalegawa, Former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Republic of Indonesia
• Ambassador Yukio Takasu, Chair, Future of Democracy Study Project and Former Permanent Representative of Japan to the United Nations
• Dr Sook Jong Lee, President Emeritus, Senior Fellow and Professor of Public Administration, Sungkyunkwan University
• Dr Henry Ivarature, Deputy Director, Strategic Engagement, Australia Pacific Security College, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
• Moderated by Dr Michael Green, CEO, United States Studies Centre 

WHEN
PUBLIC FORUM | Tuesday, 4 April, 5:00pm–6:30pm AEST

WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building, Administration Building (F23), Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road, The University of Sydney Camperdown NSW 2006

COST
Free, but registration is essential

EXPLAINER

AUKUS' economics: The price of a megaproject

Hayley Channer, Director, Economic Security, United States Studies Centre

The rationale and intent of AUKUS is sound. However, it will be costly and present ongoing opportunity costs and trade-offs, not only for defence but for broader national resources.

While the first two phases of AUKUS Pillar I – rotations of US and UK submarines in Australia in the 2020s followed by purchasing US nuclear-powered submarines in the 2030s – are by no means small endeavours, the third phase will be by far the largest component of the A$286 - $368 billion cost. Phase Three involves the Australia-UK co-design of a new ‘AUKUS class’ submarine and the domestic build of eight boats in Australia.

It is possible that future governments, in the face of other mounting financial pressures, may explore modifications to or other options for Phase Three. In that scenario, there could be opportunities to better structure the deal to procure submarines more cheaply and increase the economic and defence industry benefits for Australia.

This is an excerpt from an explainer by Hayley Channer on the USSC website.

BY THE NUMBERS

AUKUS | Sub costs by the numbers

The AUKUS announcement reveals the shifting estimated costs of a submarine program in Australia, as this USSC explainer unpacks.

• 2016: $50b build cost for 12 Attack-class submarines
• 2020: $90–100b revised build cost for 12 Attack-class submarines and $145b sustainment cost ($235–$245b total) with an estimated arrival of the first submarines in the early 2040s
• 2021: $77–171b build cost for eight nuclear-powered submarines with an estimated launch of the first submarines in the 2040s
• 2023: $286–$386b total build and sustainment cost for up to five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines and up to eight SSN AUKUS submarines with the first Virginia-class submarines launching from the early 2030s.

In the latest figures the Australian Government has been up-front about the total build and sustainment cost with a wide range commensurate with the level of uncertainty in forecasting over this prolonged period. The AUKUS 'optimal pathway' will start delivering much more powerful submarines either at the same time or sooner than the Attack-class submarine plan from 2016.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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