NEWS WRAP

Breyer to reti-yer

• Learning from Ginsberg | After 30 years on the bench of the US Supreme Court, Justice Stephen Breyer announced his retirement. One of only three liberal-leaning justices on the nine-member body, Breyer’s retirement comes at a crucial moment in the electoral calendar with the Democrats triple hold of the executive and legislative branches before the 2022 midterms; and as Democrats defend significant progressive pieces of legislation, like voting and abortion rights. President Biden is expected to announce a Black woman as his nominated successor soon. READ MORE HERE
   

• G’day Blinky | Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit Australia for the Quad summit later this month. The announcement comes as tensions ramp up in Europe, with Blinken running constant negotiations with Russia’s foreign minister. Yet, the upcoming arrival of Secretary Blinken suggests the administration is retaining its focus on balancing China in the Indo-Pacific and working with allies towards promoting liberal democratic interests in the region. READ MORE HERE
   

• Sanctions for Russia, with love | Another week of tension along Ukraine’s border with Russia led the United States and its allies to prepare targeted sanctions for several Russian elites ahead of the latest meeting for the UN Security Council. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky requested the United States and allies cool their panic to avoid Western overreaction escalating the situation. While negotiations remain ongoing, President Biden urged the world to “speak with one voice” in its rebuke of Russia’s escalatory military build-up on the border. READ MORE HERE
   

• The 45th and 47th POTUS? | During a Texas rally on Saturday, former President Donald Trump promised to pardon those prosecuted for the Jan 6 riots on the US Capitol and encouraged protests in Atlanta and New York – two cities with district attorneys who have initiated investigations into potential fraud in his businesses. Trump is the polling frontrunner for 2024 and boasts over US$122 million in campaign funds. READ MORE HERE
   

• Pfizer for under fives | Pfizer and BioNTech are expected to submit requests for emergency-use authorisation of its vaccines for US children under five years old. Should the Food and Drug Administration approve the request, the world’s first two-shot vaccine program for children under five would be rolled out much sooner than expected. The number of COVID cases among children has increased dramatically with the Omicron variant, with 3.5 million child cases in January. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Biden's year of living perilously

Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, United States Studies Centre

The new year is well underway for US President Joe Biden. It’s not pretty. The Russians are coming at Ukraine. The pandemic is not under control; America this year will come close to one million dead from Covid-19. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Biden’s sweeping legislation on social programs and climate change is dying in the Senate. He has been unable to unlock the shackles on voting rights legislation, angering his base of black voters that helped sweep him into the White House. At 42 per cent, Biden’s job approval is the worst of any modern president—save for Donald Trump. The November midterm elections look like a disaster, with the Republicans all but certain to take over the House of Representatives, and perhaps the Senate as well. There’s already talk the House Republicans will impeach Biden in 2023. (Spoiler alert: they will.)

So, what does the president of the United States do? The answer is simple: his job. Get as much done as he is capable of achieving.

In terms of Washington business, the issues are straightforward. Federal funding of the government (‘supply’, in Australian terms) expires on 18 February and must be extended. A deal will be reached.

There’s major legislation to rebuild America’s capabilities in high technology, scientific research and development, and semiconductors. The urgency of meeting what China is projecting across the Indo-Pacific in these fields means that enacting the bill is imperative, and this will get done too.

Discussions will reopen on the stalled Biden ‘Build Back Better’ agenda with the Democratic Senator who has stymied it so far, Joe Manchin of West Virginia. The gulf between the two men is significant. Manchin is a conservative Democrat in a state Trump carried by nearly 70 per cent of the vote. West Virginia is coal, and the heart of Biden’s climate program is renewables.

At stake are Biden’s pledges to ensure that American households have the resources to meet the basic costs of childcare, education, healthcare and care for seniors. Covid exposed the absence of safety and security for tens of millions of Americans when catastrophe strikes. The Biden programs are immensely popular. From the Obama years, Biden and the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate understand that they must find unity and win or be consumed by differences within their ranks and lose. Democrats need to show that in these times they can do big things. They can’t win if they can’t govern. That is what November is all about.

This is an excerpt from an article first published by The Strategist

BY THE NUMBERS

Medalling in the era of icy competition

As tensions between Biden and Putin escalate, the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic games will likely re-ignite the sporting rivalry between the two powers. While the USSR dominated the Winter games for much of the Cold War, the United States has beaten Russia (and the Russian Olympic Committee) in the medal tally in four of the last five Winter games. While Putin plans to attend the opening ceremony in Beijing, no US officials or delegates will be in attendance as they, along with Australia and a number of other countries, are boycotting due to China's human rights abuses.

Read more By the numbers analysis here

VIDEO

NATO Expert Talks | NATO's arms-control agenda

As part of the jointly presented USSC and NATO expert talks series, NATO’s Acting Director of the Arms Control, Disarmament, and WMD Non-Proliferation Centre Ms Eirini Lemos-Maniati spoke with the United States Studies Centre's Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic about NATO's approach to arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation. As disarmament is at the crux of Russia's demands for NATO to prevent an invasion into Ukraine, this conversation from late last year provides a robust overview of NATO's arms control agenda.

Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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