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31 July 2024

The 46th | Kamala hits the ground running, gets bounce in the polls

In a sign that more Americans could be warming to Kamala Harris, new polls show the presumptive Democratic nominee enjoying a bounce in favourability.

Riding a surge in enthusiasm from her party after the exit of President Joe Biden from the presidential race, a Wall Street Journal poll among others has found Harris virtually tied with Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The Harris campaign has hit the ground running since President Biden’s departure, reportedly raising US$200 million and tailoring outreach to key Democratic constituencies, white women and young people.

Harris is expected to pick her running mate in the next week, with NBC News reporting that her campaign has sent vetting material to Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

While polls show public support cooling slightly for Republican nominee Donald Trump, polling experts say it is too soon to tell if Harris’ “honeymoon” poll bump will stick.

The Trump campaign has nonetheless found itself on the backfoot, with Trump’s running mate JD Vance under fire for comments he made in 2021 calling prominent Democrats, including Vice President Kamala Harris, “childless cat ladies” who have no “direct stake” in America’s future.

Harris and her surrogates have returned the fire, repeatedly labelling Trump and Vance “weird.”

 

NEWS WRAP

Supreme Court in crosshairs

  • Biden targets Supreme Court | President Joe Biden proposed a slate of reforms to the Supreme Court including 18-year term limits for justices, an enforceable code of ethics, and a constitutional amendment stripping former presidents of criminal immunity. Legal scholars said it would be near impossible to pass the reforms requiring constitutional amendment, making much of the proposal dead on arrival. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Trump to talk to FBI | The FBI will interview former president Donald Trump as part of its investigation into the attempt on his life at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13. “It is a standard victim interview, like we would do,” Kevin Rojek, the head of the FBI’s Pittsburgh field office told reporters. The bureau has compiled a portrait of the gunman as a loner who secretly made scores of online weapon purchases without his parents’ knowledge. READ MORE HERE
     

  • United States tries to head off war | US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called for a diplomatic resolution to escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah after Israel retaliated to a deadly rocket attack by Hezbollah by striking an urban neighbourhood in Beirut. Austin also said that the United States would “help Israel defend itself” if attacked. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Bombers off Alaskan coast | US and Canadian fighter jets intercepted two Russian TU-95 Bear and two Chinese H-6 bombers conducting a joint military exercise off the Alaskan coast.  The interception of the planes came days after US Defense Department officials described “troubling” evidence of increased Chinese and Russian military and commercial cooperation in the resource-rich region. READ MORE HERE
     

  • Gaping holes in NATO’s air defences | NATO officials have acknowledged chronic shortfalls in their air defences and other areas, including ammunition, long-range missiles and troop numbers, reports Reuters. The officials said defence spending may have to exceed two per cent of GDP to address the shortfalls. READ MORE HERE

 

“[Trump’s] stuck with [JD Vance] now and I think these comments by Vance are really the 2024 counterpart of Hillary Clinton’s famous statement in the 2016 election where she called Trump’s supporters 'deplorables.'”

Former Trump National Security Adviser John Bolton on JD Vance's 'cat lady' comments | 26 July 2024

 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

Did you USSC?

  • COMMENTARY | A reader’s guide to the US election: an expert recommends the best books, journals, podcasts and commentators
    USSC Professor of US politics Brendon O'Connor on how to follow the US election. READ HERE
     
  • POLICY BRIEF | Financing AUKUS Pillar II: Building a multi-sovereign public-private innovation fund
    USSC Research Associate Sophie Mayo on how to fund AUKUS' advanced technologies at pace and scale. READ HERE
     
  • COMMENTARY | Canberra has no excuses for failing to prepare for Trump 2.0
    USSC Non-Resident Fellow Jennifer Jackett on how Australia can navigate a second Trump presidency. READ HERE
     
  • COMMENTARY | Harris vs Trump: How the US can survive bitter polarisation
    USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Professor Benjamin Reilly on the importance of electoral system design. READ HERE
     
  • COMMENTARY | What would a Kamala Harris presidency mean for Australia?
    USSC Research Associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett and Research Intern Annabel Bendavid on Kamala Harris' domestic and foreign policy record.
     
  • COMMENTARY | Harris, Trump and the fight for America’s soul
    USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe on whether Kamala Harris can prosecute her case for the presidency. READ HERE
     
  • COMMENTARY | Does Donald Trump really want to be a dictator?
    USSC Associate Professor of US Politics David Smith on Donald Trump's appeal to Christians. READ HERE
     
  • USSC PODCAST | The Harris 2024 Campaign is official: DC insiders on what's next
    USSC's Non-Resident Fellows Bruce Wolpe and Lester Munson talk to the USSC Briefing Room about Kamala Harris' chances. LISTEN HERE 
 

BY THE NUMBERS

Defence innovation uptick

By Sophie Mayo, Research Associate

Since 2021, there has been an uptick in venture capital investment in defence technology start-ups in the United States. This reflects a growing understanding among investors of the changed strategic environment, both due to the war in Ukraine and shifting regional dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. It is welcome news for AUKUS Pillar II  – the delivery of advanced technologies –  which AUKUS governments have repeatedly said will need private capital investment to deliver at pace and scale. While private capital in Australia and the United Kingdom has historically been weary of the defence market, this is starting to change. In my new USSC policy brief out today, I argue for the establishment of a multi-sovereign public-private innovation fund for Pillar II and draw key lessons from the NATO Innovation Fund for the AUKUS partners. Download the policy brief here.

 

EVENT

Election Watch 2024: New Cold Wars in a year like no other

Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times journalist David Sanger will join USSC CEO Dr Michael Green on a live panel to discuss the implications of the US election on the future of US leadership worldwide at a time of intense strategic competition between the United States and China. 

Sanger is a veteran political reporter who has covered seven presidential administrations from Washington DC for the Times. His latest book New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West, considers America’s global position at this pivotal moment.

WHEN
5 August 2024, 6.00pm–7.30pm AEST

WHERE
Holme Building, Science Rd, University of Sydney NSW 2006

COST 
Free but registration is essential

REGISTER HERE
 

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economic security, emerging technology, politics, society and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds awareness of the dynamics shaping America , their implications for Australia – and critically – solutions for the Alliance.


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