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6 November 2024
Election day reflections from USSC’s Director of Research
The Australian appetite for US politics can often seem insatiable. In 2016, when Australia and the United States both held nationwide elections, Australians sought out information about the US election at twice the rate they did their own. And in 2020, despite a once-in-a-century pandemic and complex lockdowns, Australians still searched Google for information about the US election more than anything else.
As an American living in Australia and the director of research at the US Studies Centre, this election feels no different. I’ve been endlessly asked about today’s outcome, from the moment that the last presidential election was decided four years ago.
I continue to disappoint journalists, familu and friends alike when I say that I’m honestly not sure who will win – the polling remains simply too close to call it. But as exasperated as journalists may be with my non-answer, they are even further irritated when I say that, ultimately, this US election outcome doesn’t change very much for Australia.
Across a vast array of issues – from trade and industry policy to military spending and Asia policy – Australians would be mistaken in thinking the US will choose one of two very polar opposite paths in November. They would also be wrong in thinking that they would have any less influence in a second Biden or Trump term of office: regardless of who wins today’s race, Australia is better placed than practically any other US ally to do well under the next US administration.
Australia’s free trade agreement with the US affords it stable access to the US market as well as to many of the new US Government programs from which non-free trade partners – including all of Europe – are excluded. Australia’s middle-power diplomacy, alongside Japan, in support of a rules-based economic order in Asia affords it quiet US support for maintaining regional stability when domestic political pressures limit US economic leadership.
But perhaps most importantly, as a long-time US treaty ally now making unprecedented investments in its defence capabilities – including paying billions of dollars to the US for nuclear-powered submarine technology – Australia has earned more influence in Washington than perhaps ever before.
Ultimately, while this election may not cause seismic shifts for Australia, that doesn’t mean that there won’t continue to be a long and ambitious agenda for Australia and other US allies and partners when it comes to cooperation for the years to come. I hope that you will join us for our signature conference on 20 November to help set it — and chart the path forward for US allies and partners, regardless of the election result.
Jared Mondschein
Director of Research, United States Studies Centre
Looking for an expert on US politics? Contact us on:
Email: ussc.media@sydney.edu.au
Phone: +61 468 480 165
NEWS WRAP
DC on lockdown
DC braces for election | Over 3,000 Capitol police will be on duty in Washington DC over the election, to prevent any possible repeat of the violence that occurred on January 6, 2021. Businesses boarded up their shopfronts and fences were erected around the White House in anticipation of potential protests on election day. READ MORE HERE
Iowa poll surprise | The Des Moines Register released its Iowa Poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a three-point lead over former president Donald Trump among likely voters. The nationally recognised poll reportedly came as a surprise to Iowa Democrats in the reliably Republican-leaning state. READ MORE HERE
Russia targets US election | US intelligence agencies have warned of increasing efforts by Russia to undermine the legitimacy of the US election, including the circulation of a fake video online making claims of election fraud in Arizona. Targeting swing states, the influence operations are designed to “stoke divisions among Americans,” said a joint statement from various agencies. READ MORE HERE
Musk wins lottery case | A Philadelphia judge gave tech billionaire Elon Musk a green light to continue giving away US$1 million daily to Pennsylvania voters, refusing a request from Philadelphia’s district attorney to stop the cash lottery. Musk has already given away 17 cheques to voters who signed his online petition to support the US Constitution. READ MORE HERE
Quincy Jones dies | Legendary US musician and record producer Quincy Jones died in California at the age of 91. In a career spanning 70 years and multiple genres, Jones collaborated with everyone from Frank Sinatra to Michael Jackson, producing the latter’s chart-topping albums: “Off The Wall,” “Thriller” and “Bad.” READ MORE HERE
We're going have the greatest victory in the history of our country.
Former president Donald Trump at his final rally in Pennsylvania | 4 November 2024
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Did you USSC?
- COMMENTARY | The US presidential election is too close to call. Don’t blame the polls
USSC Research Associate Samuel Garrett on what to make of the polls. READ HERE
- BRIEF | Australia’s shipbuilding ambitions and South Korea’s experience
Non-Resident Fellow Dr Peter K. Lee on what Australia could learn from South Korea's shipbuilding industry. READ HERE
- DEBATE PAPER | Is the United States headed for a second January 6?
The USSC invited former US congresswoman Barbara Comstock and Dr Alexander Cohen to discuss whether the United States is headed for a repeat of January 6, 2021. READ HERE
- EVENT | Who will be America's next president?
The USSC hosted an exclusive event featuring the Sydney Morning Herald's top reporters to discuss the likely implications of a Trump or Harris presidency. WATCH HERE
- COMMENTARY | Trump 2.0 would turn Aussie women off AUKUS
USSC Senior Research Associate Alice Nason and Research Associate Ava Kalinauskas discuss the Australian gender gap mirroring sentiment in the United States. READ HERE
- WEBINAR | Understanding the 2024 US Election: A webinar for educators
The USSC presented a panel of experts to explain the workings and implications of the election featuring the USSC's CEO Dr Michael Green, Dr Kathryn Robison and Professor Brendon O’Connor. WATCH HERE
- COMMENTARY | Will the Gaza War cost Kamala Harris the White House?
USSC Non-Resident Fellow Lester Munson on how the conflict in the Middle East could dampen turnout for the Democrats. READ HERE
BY THE NUMBERS
Will polls underestimate Trump in 2024?
While public opinion polls were off the mark in 2016, they underestimated Donald Trump's support in 2020 by even larger margins. RealClearPolitics polling averages in 2020 heading into election day estimated that Joe Biden had a 7.2% lead over Trump in the national vote – yet Biden's final margin once the votes were tallied was just 4.5%. In swing state Wisconsin, Biden was believed to have a 6.7% lead, but ultimately won the state by a razor-thin 0.7% margin.
With Kamala Harris underperforming Biden's 2020 performance in all seven swing states, Democrats are concerned that marginal leads in the polls will not translate to a win on election day. But polling errors are unpredictable and historically don't favour one party over another. In addition, pollsters have changed their methodologies in ways that may now instead be underestimating Harris' support. Only once the votes are counted will we know whether the polls were right, or if the mistakes of 2016 and 2020 have been repeated once again.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
