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Iran, alliances and what comes next
1 April 2026
History is littered with premature conclusions about the implications of certain events, particularly when made during the fog of war. Nonetheless, some key takeaways remain increasingly apparent in the nearly five weeks since the United States and Israel conducted a surprise attack on Iran.
The “CRINKs” are down but certainly not out. As USSC Foreign Policy & Defence Program Director Lavina Lee argues in today's Australian Financial Review, the alignment of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea is “offering Iran less direct military assistance than Tehran might have hoped” but it is also “helping each other fight against democratic states – which is more than some first-world allies are doing for each other.”
US allies in Asia remain concerned. In addition to the diversion of US attention and military assets from Asia, US allies are contending with dramatically increased energy prices. However, USSC CEO Michael Green argues that the 19 March Trump-Takaichi summit and Japan’s adept leadership makes clear that “expectations in Beijing or Pyongyang that alliances in Asia might fracture are likely to be disappointed.”
The US-Australian alliance faces pressure. President Trump said he was surprised that Australia was not forthcoming with more support in opening the Strait of Hormuz. USSC Chairman and former Australian Ambassador to the United States Arthur Sinodinos said, “It’s important to keep doing things which engage the US in the region, and that means showing that we’re a reliable defence partner, that we take our obligations seriously, and that we will live up to them.”
History does not portend well for Republicans in the midterm elections. USSC Non-Resident Fellow Lester Munson argues that a US victory in Iran may not even be enough to get a political victory, saying, “In 1992, Bill Clinton defeated incumbent president George H W Bush after Bush dramatically and convincingly won a war in Iraq.” The key to victory in 2026 may be the same that President Clinton campaigned on: “it’s the economy, stupid.”
Ultimately, President Trump’s White House address scheduled for midday tomorrow (AEDT) will likely give us more indication on the pathway ahead.
Jared Mondschein
Director, Research
Lead photo: Rocket trails are seen in the sky above the Israeli coastal city of Netanya on 27 March 2026 (photo by Jack Guez via Getty).
"You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us."
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In the news
SBS | 'A significant gamble': Is the US planning to seize Iran's 'forbidden island'?
It's only around double the size of Sydney Airport, but Kharg Island, Iran's oil "lifeline", is emerging as a potential first target for US boots on the ground during the ongoing war in the Middle East. Multiple media reports, citing sources connected to US intelligence, have reported that the United States is sending thousands more soldiers to the Middle East.
USSC Associate Professor David Smith spoke with SBS News on these developments and what a US seizure of Kharg Island could mean for the war.
Australian Financial Review | Under Trump, Australia juggles a precarious alliance it can’t replace
The Sydney Morning Herald took a deep dive into the background of US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. USSC CEO Dr Michael Green, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith and Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe were quoted in this article.
By the numbers
Key outcomes from the WTO's 14th Ministerial Conference
On Monday, the World Trade Organization (WTO) concluded the 14th Ministerial meeting in Cameroon. As the WTO's highest decision-making body, the WTO Ministerial convenes trade ministers and senior officials from member countries every other year.
This meeting came at a time when the WTO faces serious questions about its effectiveness, relevance and what its future could look like. With serious reforms on the table, WTO Director-General Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala opened the ministerial by calling it a “turning point." From the outside, it appears the meeting made some progress, albeit limited, with several topics facing deadlock due to a lack of consensus.
A notable outcome was the decision to bring the E-Commerce Agreement, a plurilateral agreement establishing rules on digital trade, into force among 66 consenting members, including Australia. This decision is significant as it is a step closer to implementing global trade rules on digital trade — an area not currently covered by existing WTO rules. While this outcome is definitely a sign of progress, it is also reflective of the challenges the WTO faces in efforts to modernise legislation, with the consensus-based model allowing any member an effective veto over reform proposals.
Sahara Hoff
Research Associate, Economic Security
Upcoming events
The geopolitics and business briefing: Impacts of the Iran war
The ongoing war in Iran is the sort of major global event that’s hard enough to process on a human level, let alone figure out how it affects different aspects of your business.
As the conflict continues, more questions are raised: Will this lead to a global economic crisis? When and how will it end? In what ways is Australia in particular affected?
It’s easy for the signal to get lost in all the noise. Join a free webinar from Sydney Executive Plus and the United States Studies Centre.
Through a mix of discussion and Q&A, this geopolitics and business briefing will offer clarity and practical considerations for business leaders.
Speakers:
Hayley Channer, Director of Economic Security, United States Studies Centre
Jon Berry, Geopolitics Lead, KPMG South ASPAC
Merriden Varrall, Geopolitics expert
Thursday, 2 April 2026
11:00am-11:30am AEDT
Webinar: OnlineCost: Free, but registration is essential to receive the link
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