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20 March 2024
Democrats' 2024 Senate stakes
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
With each party’s presidential nomination already secured by President Biden and former president Trump, today’s presidential primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio might not be getting their typical level of election season attention or voter turnout. But, the handful of down-ballot races now in the limelight are an important reminder of the highly consequential congressional races set to take place alongside the race for the White House this November.
As it stands, Democrats have a one-seat majority in the Senate. This November election, every House seat and 34 Senate seats will be up for election; and of those 34 Senate seats, 23 are currently held by Democrats and 11 are held by Republicans. That means, to maintain their majority in the Senate, Democrats cannot afford to lose more seats than they gain.
This won’t be easy. Senator Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat is primed for a Republican pickup and at least three other seats are considered a toss-up. One of those is in Ohio, where today’s primary determined the Republican (Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno) who will take on Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and possibly lead Republicans to a Senate majority from 2025.
Legislative stagnation in Congress over the last two years – difficulty passing bills that impact AUKUS, the US debt ceiling, and aid for Ukraine and Gaza – demonstrates that the composition of Congress can be just as consequential for US foreign policy as the personality of the president. While the nominees for both major parties are decided, the implications of the 2024 US election are far from sure.
NEWS WRAP
Amb. Kevin Rudd meets Trump's ire
‘Nasty’ AmboRudd | In an interview with GB News, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump called Kevin Rudd, Australian Ambassador to the United States, “nasty” over Rudd’s 2020 tweet that said Trump was “the most destructive president in history.” Trump admitted to not knowing much about Rudd and warned he would not keep his ambassadorial position for long if Trump is re-elected. READ MORE HERE
No deal | Thirty surety companies have rejected Donald Trump’s effort to secure a bond to cover a nearly half-billion-dollar judgment brought against him in a New York fraud case. Regardless of whether he appeals the decision, Trump must post the US$454 million sum or a bond by 25 March to prevent the state’s seizure of his assets. READ MORE HERE
Biden’s Rafah red line | The White House is working to provide alternatives to an Israeli invasion of Rafah, a southern city in Gaza currently sheltering a million displaced Palestinians. Tensions between President Biden and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu have grown as the humanitarian situation worsens in Gaza and Biden faces increased pressure to call for a ceasefire. READ MORE HERE
Trump’s “absolute immunity” | Ahead of his US Supreme Court case on 25 April, Trump has argued the president enjoys “absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for his official acts.” The court will soon adjudicate whether the former president is shielded from criminal prosecution regarding his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election loss. READ MORE HERE
Texas border arrests continue | The US Supreme Court voted 5-4 to allow Texas state police to continue to arrest people suspected to have illegally crossed the Texas-Mexico border. The controversial Texas law permitting arrests was on hold over concerns it encroached on the federal authority over immigration. READ MORE HERE
“Kevin Rudd is doing a good job as Australia’s Ambassador to the United States.”
Australian Department Foreign Affairs and Trade spokesperson | 20 March 2024
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Did you USSC?
BRIEF | Linking up with business on undersea cables
Economic Security Director Hayley Channer provides recommendations for Australia, the United States and Japan to better cooperate with the private sector on cables in a more contested Indo-Pacific. READ MORE HERE
EXPLAINER | Trump’s VP shortlist: What Australians should know
Research Associates Ava Kalinauskas and Samuel Garrett dive deep on the contenders for Trump's vice presidential running mate and what Australians need to know about them. READ MORE HERE
- IN THE MEDIA | Donald Trump criticises Australia's US Ambassador Kevin Rudd
Non-Resident Fellow Bruce Wolpe, responding to Trump's comments about Ambassador Kevin Rudd on ABC Radio, says Australia did "an excellent job" of managing the Australia-US relationship during Trump's presidential term and would seek to do so again if he secures another term in office. LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW
BY THE NUMBERS
Only 16 per cent of American TikTok users support a ban
By Georgia Edmonstone, Research Associate Economic Security
On 13 March 2024, the US House of Representatives passed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act which would require the Chinese-owned company ByteDance to sell its popular app TikTok or face a US-wide ban. Bolstered by national security concerns, the act passed with rare bipartisan consensus (352-65) and has the support of President Joe Biden, although it still needs a majority in the Senate to become law.
TikTok launched in 2017 and exploded in popularity. There are now reportedly 149 million TikTok users aged 18 and above in the United States, the app’s largest market. In 2023, 33 per cent of American adults had used TikTok, up from 21 per cent in 2021.
But as its popularity has grown, so have concerns around the large-scale collection of personal data that could potentially be shared with the Chinese Government. Many have called for the app to be banned completely in the United States. Notably, TikTok is already banned nationwide in the world’s two largest countries, India and China (ByteDance operates a similar app, Douyin, in China), and several other states, including Australia, have introduced partial bans on the social media site.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
