CONFERENCE LIVESTREAM

US Midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance

The United States Studies Centre invites you to a livestream event (via Zoom) for the launch of its publication, US Midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance.

The presumption of a red wave in the US November midterms elections has been tempered by setbacks on the Republican agenda and significant legislative victories for Democrats. But the winner of the US House and Senate elections impacts far more than US domestic politics. The US posture toward China, defence funding, trade agreements and more all hinge on the makeup of Congress. For Australia, the stakes have never been higher in a US midterms election.

To explore these topics, USSC commissioned polling on public opinion in the United States, Australia and Japan on issues ranging from sentiment toward AUKUS and the stationing of US troops in allied nations to alignment on climate change and priorities for the next US Congress.

The report launch will present novel findings, documenting and analysing these challenges and their implications for Australia. It will feature discussions with USSC experts and special guests including:

• Jane Coaston from The New York Times,
• Ron Brownstein from CNN and The Atlantic,
• USSC CEO Dr Michael Green,
• USSC Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Prof. Peter Dean,
• Director of Emerging Technology Dr Miah Hammond-Errey and
• Report authors: USSC Director of Research Jared Mondschein and USSC Research Associate Victoria Cooper.

WHEN
CANBERRA: Wednesday, 26 October, 8.30am-1.30pm AEDT
WASHINGTON DC: Tuesday, 25 October, 5.30-10.30pm EDT
KYOTO: Wednesday, 26 October, 6.30–11.30am JST

COST
Free, but registration is essential

If you would like to attend the conference in Canberra in person, please email ussc.events@sydney.edu.au an expression of interest with your name, organisation and title.

NEWS WRAP

Record breaking early voting

• Midterms on Georgia's mind | Early voting is now open, and on its first day mail-in votes already were already higher than in 2018's record breaking turnout. With more than 100,000 Georgia voters, they surpassed the previous day one record of 72,000 votes. A major swing state, Georgia’s Senate race between Raphael Warnock and former footballer Herschel Walker remains too close to call. READ MORE HERE
   

• Trump 2022 | While midterms are often considered a referendum on the president’s first two years, in the 2022 midterms they seem as much a referendum on the previous president. Most Republican candidates running for national or state roles have publicly said they believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, and nearly two-thirds of those who questioned Biden’s election are favoured to win their races. READ MORE HERE
   

• The future of Jan 6 investigations | Last week, the House Jan. 6 Committee voted unanimously to subpoena former President Trump for his role in leading the insurrection at the Capitol in 2021. The former president is not expected to appear before the committee, which could lead to a contempt of Congress charge. If the Republican party win control of the House in November however, the committee’s subpoena could be withdrawn and the investigation disbanded. READ MORE HERE
   
• Support for Ukraine | As the Russian invasion of Ukraine wears on, seeing the possibility of a European energy crisis, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said a Republican-led House would continue US support for Ukraine while encouraging NATO members to step up should his party take the House at the midterms. The comments may not be enough to curb doubts though after 57 House Republicans voted against a major aid package in May, and the leader was clear that his party would not write “blank checks” to Ukraine while the country is heading toward recession. READ MORE HERE
   

• Ohio heats up | The great replacement theory was just one of the controversial topics Ohio Senate candidates JD Vance and incumbent Democrat Tim Ryan sparred over during their Ohio Senate debate on Monday night. Vance is slightly ahead of Ryan, 47 per cent to 45 per cent in the latest polls. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

The United States is gearing up for midterm elections. What are they and what’s at stake?

Associate Professor David Smith
Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, United States Studies Centre

Midterm elections in the United States elect the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and thousands of state legislative and executive offices. For all their magnitude and importance, these elections attract far less attention than presidential elections and have much lower turnout.

But the November 8 2022 midterms, taking place in one of the most closely divided Congresses in history, could have far-reaching consequences.

What could happen in the elections?

Democrats currently hold the House of Representatives by a margin of just 10 seats out of 435. This is the narrowest House majority since 1955. They have no majority at all in the Senate, which is split 50-50, relying on the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.

This makes it historically unlikely that the Democrats will hold on to the House. Since the Civil War, the president’s party has lost seats at every midterm election except for 1934 (the Great Depression), 1998 (Bill Clinton’s impeachment) and 2002 (the first election after the September 11 terrorist attacks). Republicans only need to gain five seats to take the House. This outcome is widely expected but far from certain, and Democrats can take some comfort from some encouraging results in special elections earlier in the year.

The Senate could be more favourable to Democrats, despite Republicans needing just one seat to flip it. Because only a third of Senate seats are contested at each election, one party often needs to defend far more of its seats than the other. This year Republicans are defending 20 seats compared to the Democrats’ 14, and a lot of these races are extremely close.

Under these circumstances, some forecasts slightly favour Democrats to retain control of the Senate. But given the tightness of key races, it could well come down to contingencies that are hard to predict.

This is an excerpt from The United States is gearing up for midterm elections. What are they and what’s at stake? published on The Conversation, 18 October 2022.

BY THE NUMBERS

Sneak peek | US midterms polling: Collaborating with the United States on climate change

A vast majority of Australian (77 per cent) and Japanese (81 per cent) respondents to the USSC midterms polling support collaboration with the United States on climate change. This is reflective of the broader desire to increase the scope of the alliance to address critical issues. For Australian and Japanese respondents, climate change is viewed as a top issue for the alliance agenda. While slightly more Japanese respondents felt it was either somewhat or very important, the sentiment was stronger with Australians. Nearly half (48 per cent) of Australian respondents felt collaboration with the United States on climate change was very important. This highlights an area where actions by the United States will have an outsized impact in terms of positive sentiment with allies. Heading into the summit season, a number of US allies want to see this at the top of the agenda.

Want to find out what percentage of Americans, Australians and Japanese respondents are against Japan joining AUKUS? Or the surprising amount of Trump voters who want the United States to rejoin an agreement like the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Subscribe to USSC research alerts to be the first to receive our upcoming report on these issues and join our report launch.

VIDEO

Blackness and China: Tensions and solidarity

During the Cold War, America’s ideological competition with authoritarian regimes compelled American leaders to address their country’s own longstanding racial inequities, a frequent source of criticism by communist nations. While the Chinese Communist Party expressed solidarity with ideas of equality for African Americans, tensions as well as tropes around African Americans persisted in China. What do Sino-African American and Sino-Black relations look like today? What roles do ideas of race and ethnicity have in US-China relations? What does this mean for a multi-cultural Australia?

To discuss these issues, the USSC hosted a webinar featuring USSC Visiting Fellow Dr Keisha A. Brown, an Associate Professor of History at Tennessee State University and expert on modern Chinese history and Sino-Black relations, followed by a discussion with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.

Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#Jan6thCommitteeonTrump