No images? Click here 19 October 2022Blinken: China’s Taiwan invasion expected on “a much faster timeline”Chinese President Xi Jinping’s promise to reclaim Taiwan by “all measures necessary” took the stage of the 20th Communist Party Congress this week as he made the case for a historic third term. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the Biden administration sees Beijing’s recent rhetoric and actions on Taiwan as an escalated threat, saying Beijing wants to take control, “on a much faster timeline” than anticipated after China determined that “the status quo was no longer acceptable.” Blinken’s remarks evoke his warnings ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. Russian President Putin’s actions almost exactly mirrored the play-by-play Blinken outlined at the time. President Xi has been paying attention to Putin and adopting lessons learned to hone his approach to Taiwan. Analysts will disagree whether the lesson is invasions are risky —or strike hard and fast. His remarks at the Party Congress may hold some clues. Ahead of the US midterms, the USSC commissioned polling on a range of issues that will be impacted by the election – including US, Australian and Japanese sentiment toward how to respond to a Taiwan invasion. This polling will be released one week from today, but to make sure you don’t miss it, subscribe to our research alerts here and visit our Midterms Hub. We will also take a deep dive into AUKUS, emerging technology, a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan and more at our midterms conference next week. Register to join the livestream here. CONFERENCE LIVESTREAMUS Midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the allianceThe United States Studies Centre invites you to a livestream event (via Zoom) for the launch of its publication, US Midterms 2022: The stakes for Australia and the alliance. The presumption of a red wave in the US November midterms elections has been tempered by setbacks on the Republican agenda and significant legislative victories for Democrats. But the winner of the US House and Senate elections impacts far more than US domestic politics. The US posture toward China, defence funding, trade agreements and more all hinge on the makeup of Congress. For Australia, the stakes have never been higher in a US midterms election. To explore these topics, USSC commissioned polling on public opinion in the United States, Australia and Japan on issues ranging from sentiment toward AUKUS and the stationing of US troops in allied nations to alignment on climate change and priorities for the next US Congress. The report launch will present novel findings, documenting and analysing these challenges and their implications for Australia. It will feature discussions with USSC experts and special guests including:
WHEN COST If you would like to attend the conference in Canberra in person, please email ussc.events@sydney.edu.au an expression of interest with your name, organisation and title. NEWS WRAPRecord breaking early voting
ANALYSISThe United States is gearing up for midterm elections. What are they and what’s at stake?Associate Professor David Smith Midterm elections in the United States elect the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and thousands of state legislative and executive offices. For all their magnitude and importance, these elections attract far less attention than presidential elections and have much lower turnout. But the November 8 2022 midterms, taking place in one of the most closely divided Congresses in history, could have far-reaching consequences. What could happen in the elections? Democrats currently hold the House of Representatives by a margin of just 10 seats out of 435. This is the narrowest House majority since 1955. They have no majority at all in the Senate, which is split 50-50, relying on the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. This makes it historically unlikely that the Democrats will hold on to the House. Since the Civil War, the president’s party has lost seats at every midterm election except for 1934 (the Great Depression), 1998 (Bill Clinton’s impeachment) and 2002 (the first election after the September 11 terrorist attacks). Republicans only need to gain five seats to take the House. This outcome is widely expected but far from certain, and Democrats can take some comfort from some encouraging results in special elections earlier in the year. The Senate could be more favourable to Democrats, despite Republicans needing just one seat to flip it. Because only a third of Senate seats are contested at each election, one party often needs to defend far more of its seats than the other. This year Republicans are defending 20 seats compared to the Democrats’ 14, and a lot of these races are extremely close. Under these circumstances, some forecasts slightly favour Democrats to retain control of the Senate. But given the tightness of key races, it could well come down to contingencies that are hard to predict. This is an excerpt from The United States is gearing up for midterm elections. What are they and what’s at stake? published on The Conversation, 18 October 2022. ![]() The wheels of history are rolling on towards China’s reunification. Complete reunification of our country must be realised, and it can without a doubt be realised. Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 20th Communist Party Congress | 16 October, 2022 BY THE NUMBERS Sneak peek | US midterms polling: Collaborating with the United States on climate changeA vast majority of Australian (77 per cent) and Japanese (81 per cent) respondents to the USSC midterms polling support collaboration with the United States on climate change. This is reflective of the broader desire to increase the scope of the alliance to address critical issues. For Australian and Japanese respondents, climate change is viewed as a top issue for the alliance agenda. While slightly more Japanese respondents felt it was either somewhat or very important, the sentiment was stronger with Australians. Nearly half (48 per cent) of Australian respondents felt collaboration with the United States on climate change was very important. This highlights an area where actions by the United States will have an outsized impact in terms of positive sentiment with allies. Heading into the summit season, a number of US allies want to see this at the top of the agenda. Want to find out what percentage of Americans, Australians and Japanese respondents are against Japan joining AUKUS? Or the surprising amount of Trump voters who want the United States to rejoin an agreement like the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Subscribe to USSC research alerts to be the first to receive our upcoming report on these issues and join our report launch. VIDEOBlackness and China: Tensions and solidarityDuring the Cold War, America’s ideological competition with authoritarian regimes compelled American leaders to address their country’s own longstanding racial inequities, a frequent source of criticism by communist nations. While the Chinese Communist Party expressed solidarity with ideas of equality for African Americans, tensions as well as tropes around African Americans persisted in China. What do Sino-African American and Sino-Black relations look like today? What roles do ideas of race and ethnicity have in US-China relations? What does this mean for a multi-cultural Australia? To discuss these issues, the USSC hosted a webinar featuring USSC Visiting Fellow Dr Keisha A. Brown, an Associate Professor of History at Tennessee State University and expert on modern Chinese history and Sino-Black relations, followed by a discussion with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green. Catch more podcast and video analysis on the United States here. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |