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10 January 2024
New year, new questions about Trump fate
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
While some ring in the new year with hopes of a fresh start, recent days are a reminder of just how much baggage is set to feature in the new (election) year of US politics.
In December, Colorado’s Supreme Court and Maine’s secretary of state took steps to bar Donald Trump from their states’ primary electoral ballots under the untried insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. The possibility of Trump’s disqualification in these states compels the US Supreme Court to swiftly answer difficult questions about the Civil War-era amendment and its application to the events of January 6, 2021. Were the Capitol Hill attacks an insurrection? Was the former president engaged in the event? Does this disqualify him from being able to hold presidential office under the US Constitution?
President Biden’s scathing speech marking the third anniversary of the 6 January riots might attempt an early answer to those questions: “Trump’s mob wasn’t a peaceful protest. It was a violent assault. They were insurrectionists, not patriots. They weren’t there to uphold the Constitution; they were there to destroy the Constitution.”
But ahead of the first of the year’s election contests — next week’s Iowa caucuses on 15 January — Republican primary voters appear impervious to Biden’s case and unperturbed by the Colorado and Maine decisions, with Trump maintaining a more than 30-point lead as preferred candidate in the state.
All this reignites debate about whether the court of law or of public opinion will first determine the fate of Trump’s presidential ambitions, and indeed which of these courts will provide the most democratically-spirited result.
As history and future collide in 2024, it’s all but guaranteed that this new year and election season will be like no other.
NEWS WRAP
Secretary Austin MIA
DOD goes MIA | Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and the Pentagon are facing scrutiny for not properly communicating Austin’s whereabouts during a prolonged hospitalisation relating to a prostate cancer treatment late last month. The White House, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks and senior members of the military chain of command were said to be left in the dark about Austin’s condition, leading some to call for his resignation. President Biden said he would not accept a resignation if offered. READ MORE HERE
Déjà vu for spending fight | With Congress returning this week after its three-week recess, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Mike Johnson are tasked with passing four spending bills before a 19 January deadline and a further eight before 2 February. While both leaders agreed to a topline spending figure of US$1.59 trillion, conservative votes in the House and a deal on the border next week are still far from guaranteed. READ MORE HERE
Trump’s immunity play | Three judges in the Washington DC Court of Appeals expressed doubts about Donald Trump’s argument that he cannot be prosecuted for alleged acts while in office because of presidential immunity. The former president chose to attend the hearing, despite being days away from the first Republican primary caucus, demonstrating the unique role the criminal trials are likely to play in his election campaigning. READ MORE HERE
A diplomatic push for lasting peace | US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel for his fourth visit since war erupted in October 2023, with aims to prevent the escalation of conflict. Blinken urged Israel to make “hard choices” to pave the way for Palestine’s regional integration and promote lasting and sustainable peace. It follows a series of US talks with Israel’s Arab neighbours about a long-term approach to resolve ongoing Israel-Palestine conflicts. READ MORE HERE
FAA pulls the (door) plug | The Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) has grounded all Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft in the United States following an in-flight blowout of a door plug over Portland last week. US airline United Airlines has since discovered loose hardware in some of its grounded planes. The grounding has led to hundreds of, mostly domestic, flight cancellations and a 7.3 per cent loss of Boeing shares. READ MORE HERE
"The president has a unique constitutional role but he is not above the law."
Prosecutor James Pearce during Trump appeal in Washington DC | 10 January 2024
DID YOU USSC?
- COMMENTARY | Trump insurrection didn't end on January 6. That's just when it began
"There has been no coming together of the American people on the legacy of January 6" argues Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe in the Sydney Morning Herald. The events of the Capitol attack now form the basis for many of the questions surrounding Trump's fate heading into the 2024 presidential election. READ MORE HERE
- PODCAST | The Asia Chessboard, Cold Rivals
CEO Dr Michael J. Green and co-host Jude Blanchette are joined by Georgetown University's Evan Medeiros to discuss the successes and failures of US engagement towards China and forecast what the strained US-China relationship may hold in the coming years. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
- PODCAST | USSC Briefing Room, Religious Persecution and Political Order in the United States with Associate Professor David Smith
The USSC Briefing Room continues its book talk series with Associate Professor David Smith. In this episode, we discuss Professor Smith's latest research on the persecution of religious minorities in the United States, as well as the role of religion in US political order and social cohesion. LISTEN TO THE EPISODE
- REPORT | AUKUS inflection point: Building the ecosystem for workforce development
A new report by Director of Foreign Policy and Defence Professor Peter Dean and Research Associate Alice Nason, with Research Associates Sophie Mayo and Samuel Garrett, evaluates what it will take for the Australian Government to deliver the specialised workforce required for the AUKUS agreement. READ MORE HERE
EVENT
Election Watch 2024: Trump v. Biden redux?
The Iowa caucuses on 15 January will be the first test of whether any GOP challengers can make a dent on former president Trump’s dominating lead in the Republican race to be the presidential nominee. From February, the primary races will accelerate in the lead up to a climactic Super Tuesday set to occur around the same time as some of the pending Trump trials. In the midst of this, President Biden will deliver possibly his final State of the Union address, making a direct appeal to the American people about his accomplishments and vision for the future.
Can President Biden cut through the noise around the Trump campaign? Do any GOP challengers have a shot at dethroning Trump? What should we expect in the lead up to Super Tuesday?
To discuss these issues, please join us for a live panel discussion with USSC experts. We’ll give a readout on the Iowa caucus results and what it portends for the year ahead.
WHEN
30 January 2024, 6-7pm AEDT
TYPE
Live panel discussion
WHERE
Auditorium, The Michael Spence Building (F23),
Corner of Eastern Avenue and City Road,
The University of Sydney NSW 2006
BY THE NUMBERS
Republicans' softening view on Trump's involvement in Jan. 6
By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor
Three years on from the January 6 attack on the Capitol, attitudes towards the culpability of former president Donald Trump are softening among Republican voters.
Amid new questions about the former president’s eligibility to appear on primary ballots due to his alleged engagement in the events of January 6, the latest polling reveals 53 per cent of Americans (down from 60 per cent in 2021) say Donald Trump bears a great deal or good amount of blame for the January 6 Capitol Hill attack. The seven-point decline in those convinced of Trump’s culpability is largely driven by Republicans’ softening perspective, with the number of Republicans assigning Trump fault declining by14 percentage points since 2021.
Since 2021, nearly 1,300 Jan. 6 rioters have been arrested in connection with the attack and 64 per cent of those who have been convicted at trial have faced prison time. The former president may also face prison time in charges brought by the Justice Department relating to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election. While a majority (57 per cent) of American adults say Trump should be held accountable for the charges, an overwhelming 77 per cent of Republicans and 83 per cent of Trump voters say the DOJ is unfairly targeting Trump for political reasons, with 68 per cent of Republican voters saying the former president is innocent.
Republicans’ softening view of Trump’s involvement in the Jan 6 attack and faith in the former president’s innocence has no doubt helped Trump secure an historic lead in the race for the Republican nomination. The primaries may indeed prove an easy fight for the former president. But, the reality is the majority of Americans believe President Biden was legitimately elected, Trump is guilty of attempting to overturn the 2020 election result and that he should be held accountable for such action. So, while Trump might appear to have secured the hearts and minds of Republicans, convincing the majority before the November general election will be a whole separate battle.
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
