No images? Click here 10 January 2024New year, new questions about Trump fateBy Victoria Cooper, Research Editor While some ring in the new year with hopes of a fresh start, recent days are a reminder of just how much baggage is set to feature in the new (election) year of US politics. In December, Colorado’s Supreme Court and Maine’s secretary of state took steps to bar Donald Trump from their states’ primary electoral ballots under the untried insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. The possibility of Trump’s disqualification in these states compels the US Supreme Court to swiftly answer difficult questions about the Civil War-era amendment and its application to the events of January 6, 2021. Were the Capitol Hill attacks an insurrection? Was the former president engaged in the event? Does this disqualify him from being able to hold presidential office under the US Constitution? President Biden’s scathing speech marking the third anniversary of the 6 January riots might attempt an early answer to those questions: “Trump’s mob wasn’t a peaceful protest. It was a violent assault. They were insurrectionists, not patriots. They weren’t there to uphold the Constitution; they were there to destroy the Constitution.” But ahead of the first of the year’s election contests — next week’s Iowa caucuses on 15 January — Republican primary voters appear impervious to Biden’s case and unperturbed by the Colorado and Maine decisions, with Trump maintaining a more than 30-point lead as preferred candidate in the state. All this reignites debate about whether the court of law or of public opinion will first determine the fate of Trump’s presidential ambitions, and indeed which of these courts will provide the most democratically-spirited result. As history and future collide in 2024, it’s all but guaranteed that this new year and election season will be like no other. NEWS WRAPSecretary Austin MIA
![]() "The president has a unique constitutional role but he is not above the law." Prosecutor James Pearce during Trump appeal in Washington DC | 10 January 2024 DID YOU USSC?
EVENT Election Watch 2024: Trump v. Biden redux?The Iowa caucuses on 15 January will be the first test of whether any GOP challengers can make a dent on former president Trump’s dominating lead in the Republican race to be the presidential nominee. From February, the primary races will accelerate in the lead up to a climactic Super Tuesday set to occur around the same time as some of the pending Trump trials. In the midst of this, President Biden will deliver possibly his final State of the Union address, making a direct appeal to the American people about his accomplishments and vision for the future. Can President Biden cut through the noise around the Trump campaign? Do any GOP challengers have a shot at dethroning Trump? What should we expect in the lead up to Super Tuesday? To discuss these issues, please join us for a live panel discussion with USSC experts. We’ll give a readout on the Iowa caucus results and what it portends for the year ahead. WHEN TYPE BY THE NUMBERS Republicans' softening view on Trump's involvement in Jan. 6By Victoria Cooper, Research Editor Three years on from the January 6 attack on the Capitol, attitudes towards the culpability of former president Donald Trump are softening among Republican voters. Amid new questions about the former president’s eligibility to appear on primary ballots due to his alleged engagement in the events of January 6, the latest polling reveals 53 per cent of Americans (down from 60 per cent in 2021) say Donald Trump bears a great deal or good amount of blame for the January 6 Capitol Hill attack. The seven-point decline in those convinced of Trump’s culpability is largely driven by Republicans’ softening perspective, with the number of Republicans assigning Trump fault declining by14 percentage points since 2021. Since 2021, nearly 1,300 Jan. 6 rioters have been arrested in connection with the attack and 64 per cent of those who have been convicted at trial have faced prison time. The former president may also face prison time in charges brought by the Justice Department relating to his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election. While a majority (57 per cent) of American adults say Trump should be held accountable for the charges, an overwhelming 77 per cent of Republicans and 83 per cent of Trump voters say the DOJ is unfairly targeting Trump for political reasons, with 68 per cent of Republican voters saying the former president is innocent. Republicans’ softening view of Trump’s involvement in the Jan 6 attack and faith in the former president’s innocence has no doubt helped Trump secure an historic lead in the race for the Republican nomination. The primaries may indeed prove an easy fight for the former president. But, the reality is the majority of Americans believe President Biden was legitimately elected, Trump is guilty of attempting to overturn the 2020 election result and that he should be held accountable for such action. So, while Trump might appear to have secured the hearts and minds of Republicans, convincing the majority before the November general election will be a whole separate battle. Manage your email preferences | Forward this email to a friend United States Studies Centre |