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The pivotal next phase of the
AUKUS debate
3 June 2026
AUKUS sceptics have raised questions about Australia’s largest defence procurement in history since it was first announced in September 2021. Yet, all three AUKUS countries have changed government since the first announcement and have re-endorsed their support. Nearly five years after the original announcement the United States and the United Kingdom have conducted reviews into the program and both doubled-down on the agreement. While there continues to be a strong consensus in the Australian strategic community that there is no better alternative to the deterrence offered by long-range, stealthy nuclear-powered attack submarines. However, two developments this week highlight key challenges to the AUKUS agreement in its next phase: production levels for Virginia-class SSNs and questions around social licence within Australia.
Virginia-class submarine production
The three AUKUS defence leads met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue last week and announced Australia would now be receiving three used Virginia-class SSNs under AUKUS, rather than the planned two used and one new boat. Senior Adviser for Defence Strategy Prof. Peter Dean and Non-Resident Fellow Alice Nason highlighted that “workforce shortages are endemic to the US submarine industrial base” in their 2025 report. Given the persistent lag in US submarine production, the Australian Government said this approach likely will “streamline” delivery. However, the changes in the AUKUS timeline will put more weight on production of the AUKUS-class SSNs that Australia and the United Kingdom are building together – the first of which is expected to come online in the 2040s.
Public messaging
This week, former Australian Environment, Minister and Midnight Oil frontman and AUKUS critic Peter Garrett announced he would be leading a crowd-funded community inquiry into AUKUS. USSC polling on the topic shows a nuanced picture:
- 51% of Australian respondents still agree that “it is a good idea for Australia to have nuclear-powered submarines” – compared to 20% who disagree.
- A plurality of respondents (44%) believe AUKUS “makes Asia safer” – compared to 13% who disagree.
- Only 17% of Australians think AUKUS should be cancelled –compared to more than double (44%) who disagree with cancelling AUKUS.
- 27% of Australians think “the Australian Government has properly explained why Australia needs nuclear-powered submarines.”
On all these questions 30-44% of respondents were uncertain. As Dean and Nason argued in their report, for the Australian Government to build confidence in the Australian national community, they need to “make a sovereign strategic case for AUKUS capabilities to the public.” So far, AUKUS has been “full steam ahead” with no deliverables missed, but with so many Australians undecided, this next phase of the AUKUS discussion could be pivotal.
Mari Koeck
Director of Engagement and Impact
Lead image: US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles and UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healey met in Singapore on 30 May and re-affirmed their commitment to delivering the AUKUS partnership (photo by US Embassy, Singapore).
"Australia is stepping up. Together, we are expanding the rotational presence of US forces and collaborating to ensure our defence industrial bases build and sustain weapons required for a high-end fight."
Recent content
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building (H03)
University of Sydney NSW 2006