USSC Insider | Tides turning on US Ukraine involvement

16 July 2025

This week, President Trump announced the resumption and expansion of sending weapons to support Ukraine. Whether this shift in rhetoric will lead to sustained policy changes remains to be seen.

Notably, in this new agreement, while the United States will supply the weaponry, NATO allies will foot the bill. This is another significant step forward for US-NATO relations following June’s NATO Summit where the allies agreed to lift individual defence spending to 5% of GDP.

President Trump has been more vocal in criticisms of Vladimir Putin, this week saying that he, “talks nice but then he bombs everything in the evening.” Trump has also threatened significant new sanctions on Russia and countries that do business with Russia, “if we don’t have a deal in 50 days.”

Key Republicans in Congress have been pushing for new sanctions on Russia and seem to finally have gotten buy-in from the president. Senator Lindsay Graham said their current sanctions bill, “would give President Trump the ability to impose 500% tariffs on any country that helps Russia.”

This support comes at a critical moment for Ukraine, as Russia’s bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities continues to intensify and the civilian death toll rises sharply. According to new data from the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, June 2025 marked the highest number of civilian casualties in over three years including 232 deaths and 1,343 injured.

As USSC Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgić also noted in her Trump 2.0 write-up on Ukraine, 6 August is a key date because it is when martial law is currently set to expire in Ukraine. She notes that, “If no further extensions are made, this would pave the way for presidential elections,” something President Trump was also vocal about earlier this year. However, with the recent intensification of fighting and mounting civilian casualties, the prospect of holding elections under such conditions has become increasingly uncertain.

If you want to hear from experts on what is next for Ukraine, join us for a special event tomorrow night featuring Gorana, University of Sydney Senior Lecturer Dr Olga Boichak, and Griffith Asia Institute Associate Professor (Adjunct) Dr Matthew Sussex. Ukrainian Ambassador to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko will make virtual introductory remarks from Ukraine. Tickets are going fast, but there are still some spaces available.

Register here

Mari Koeck
Director, Engagement and Impact

Dr Gorana Grgić
Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy

Lead image: President Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House on
14 July 2025. President Trump warned Russia on Monday that he will impose "very severe" tariffs against Moscow's remaining trade partners if it doesn't resolve its war in Ukraine within 50 days.
(Photo by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds for Getty Images)

"It's all talk and then missiles go into Kyiv and kill 60 people."

President Trump speaking to the press | 14 July 2025

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Level 5 Refectory, Belinda Hutchinson Building (H70), corner of Darlington Ln & Abercrombie St, Darlington, The University of Sydney NSW 2006

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