For the South West Land Division (SWLD) models indicate below median rainfall for winter (June to August). Both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal for winter (June to August) 2026.
Recent conditions:
- Rainfall in May was below average for the SWLD, despite the late cold front
- For May, maximum temperatures were above average and minimum and temperature below average.
- The current outlook indicates an El Niño, a potentially positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and an increased prevalence of high-pressure systems during winter and spring. Together, these climate drivers are likely to reduce winter rainfall and bring higher temperatures across the SWLD.
- The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter 2026, released by AFAC (the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services), predicts an increased risk of fire across the northern parts of the Great Sandy Desert and surrounds in Western Australia (WA), and parts of central and northern New South Wales (NSW). In WA, risk of fire is expected to be mostly average, with increased risk in parts of Dampier Peninsula, the northern Great Sandy Desert and the Ord Victoria Plain as the dry season progresses.
Rainfall summary
Rainfall since April was average across the majority of the SWLD, with the DPIRD weather station at Pemberton receiving 254 mm of rain. In contrast, the Bureau’s weather station at Cadoux has received only 16 mm. The latest soil moisture map indicates generally good level of soil moisture for the SWLD.
Figure 1. Rainfall (mm) totals for 1 April to 1 June 2026 in the SWLD. Pemberton recorded the highest total of 254 mm and the lowest total is Cadoux with 16 mm.
Figure 2. Rainfall decile map for 1 April – 1 June 2026 in the SWLD. Indicating decile 4-7 for the majority of the SWLD.
Figure 3. Plant available soil water map for the SWLD using rainfall up to 1 June 2026, uses the two-layer fallow Ritchie model and represents the mean of ten soil types. The map indicates dry conditions in some parts.
Break of Season
Traditionally, the ‘break of season’ was defined as the first rainfall event delivering 25 mm over 3 days after 25 April. This has since been refined to 15 mm over 3 days from 1 April. Using data up to 1 June, the map shows that a break has occurred across the majority of the SWLD. There are, however, a number of locations that are still awaiting a break. Historically, the average break date for most of the South West Land Division is early to mid-May, meaning the break is later than average in some areas. However, some of these regions received good rainfall in late March, which would have effectively provided an earlier break.
Figure 4. Break of the season map based on 15 mm of rain over 3 days from 1 April 2026, for 1 June 2026 for the SWLD. Indicating that the majority of the SWLD has received a break to the season.
Figure 5. Average (2000-2025) break of the season based on 15 mm of rain over 3 days from 1 April for the SWLD. Indicating for the majority of the SWLD the break is early to mid-May.
Thermal time
Thermal time is calculated by accumulating daily temperatures from 1 April, using the average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. This provides an estimate of plant growth when compared with the average thermal time baseline (2017–2025). The current thermal time map shows values below the long-term average, reflecting below-normal minimum temperatures and suggesting that plant growth rates are likely to be slower than normal.
Figure 6. Change in thermal time from the (2017–2025) average as of 31 May for the SWLD. Below-average minimum temperatures have resulted in below-average thermal time for this time of year.
Seasonal Bushfire Outlook autumn 2026
The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter 2026, released by AFAC (the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services), identifies a heightened risk of bushfire risk in parts of Dampier Peninsula, the northern Great Sandy Desert and the Ord Victoria Plain due to elevated grass fuel loads following a wet season.
Figure 7. The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for winter 2026, released by AFAC (the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services), identifies a heightened risk of bushfire risk in the northern parts of the Great Sandy Desert and surrounds in Western Australia (WA), and parts of central and northern New South Wales (NSW)
Rainfall outlooks
Three-month and single-month rainfall outlooks are derived from a range of national and international climate models. The outlooks are presented as the probability of rainfall being below, above, or neutral relative to the median rainfall (Note: A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible). To provide a more localised perspective, the SWLD has been divided into 2 regions, allowing for tailored rainfall outlooks specific to each area.
Figure 8. Rainfall outlooks are in 2 sections based on location in the SWLD ̶ first group includes Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, second group includes Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts.
Rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international climate models shows that 9 models indicate below median rainfall for June 2026. This tendency towards drier than normal conditions continue through to October. There is currently no clear model consensus for November. It is important to note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 9. Single month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to November 2026. Model consensus is for below median rainfall for June through to October. There is no model consensus for November. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international climate models shows that 13 models indicate below median rainfall for winter (June to August). This tendency towards drier than normal conditions continue through to August to October. There is currently no clear model consensus for spring (September to November). Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 10. Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to spring (September to November) 2026. Model consensus is for below median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international climate models shows that 8 models indicate below median rainfall for June 2026. This tendency towards below median rainfall continues through to October, although there is currently no clear model consensus for November. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 11. Single month model summaries of rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to November 2026. Model consensus is for below median rainfall for June to October. No model consensus for November. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for winter (June to August) 2026, 14 models indicate below median rainfall. This model consensus continues through to spring (September to November). Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Figure 12. Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to spring (September to November) 2026. Model consensus is for below median rainfall. Note that forecasts are less accurate the further ahead they look.
Important disclaimer
The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.
Copyright © State of Western Australia (Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development), 2026
