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17 May 2023

Biden's Quad quandary

The highly anticipated Quad Leaders' Summit planned in Sydney next week was cancelled following the announcement today that President Biden would postpone his trip to Australia. Biden will return home to the United States straight after the G7 meeting in Japan this weekend to address the looming debt ceiling crisis and avert potential fiscal disaster if a bipartisan agreement is not reached by 1 June. 

Biden's decision to publicly prioritise domestic issues ahead of international diplomacy mirrors a similar decision by President Obama in 2010, and comes less than one month after the official launch of his 2024 election bid.

The Quad Leaders’ Summit is only one area of tension between domestic and international priorities. The House Foreign Affairs Committee will soon hold hearings on modernising the US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) export regime. While ITAR seeks to control access to sensitive defence technology, it is increasingly seen as a major impediment to cooperation with allies as items ranging from bolts to critical software fall under the same rules, and allies face restrictions targeted at foes. A new United States Studies Centre (USSC) report released today explores these issues around ITAR and suggests a pathway forward.

 

NEWS WRAP

Positive debt negotiations despite Biden trip postponement

  • Debt talks continue | Both Republicans and Democrats have said they are optimistic about the prospects of a deal on the US debt ceiling after the latest talks, despite US President Biden postponing a trip to Papua New Guinea and Australia in favour of addressing the debt issue. READ MORE HERE
     
  • Title 42 expires | Uncertainty came over the US-Mexico border as Trump-era Title 42 restrictions, enacted as a result of the pandemic, expired. The restrictions were replaced by new rules that introduce tougher penalties for unlawful border crossings. READ MORE HERE
     
  • Senate chats ChatGPT | The CEO of OpenAI, which produced ChatGPT, urged US lawmakers to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) at a Senate hearing on Tuesday amid concern over AI's growing sophistication. READ MORE HERE
     
  • Staffers attacked | Two staffers of Democratic Congressman Gerry Connolly were injured in an attack at the congressman's Virginia office in the latest instance of violence directed at US legislators and their staff. READ MORE HERE
     
  • Drug deal reached | In a compromise deal, Washington state lawmakers resolved not to decriminalise drug possession. Washington would have followed Oregon in becoming only the second state to decriminalise drugs. In Australia, the Australian Capital Territory became the first jurisdiction to do so in October. READ MORE HERE
 

WEBINAR

The optimal pathway for ITAR reform

Price tag aside, one of the biggest obstacles to the success of AUKUS is export controls. Stakeholders in all three AUKUS countries are increasingly concerned that the United States International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) present a significant challenge to the timely sharing of equipment, information, and technology between the three countries.

How might ITAR provisions hamper the implementation of the AUKUS agreement? Why did previous efforts to reform US export controls for Australia and the United Kingdom fall short? Is the best route to enduring ITAR reform through legislative action or an executive order?

In a new report released this week, non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Dr William Greenwalt and United States Studies Centre (USSC) Research Fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence Tom Corben tackle these questions and provide a roadmap towards reforming ITAR to realise the full potential of AUKUS. Please join the authors, along with USSC non-resident fellow Jennifer Jackett, for a webinar discussion on reforming US export controls to realise the potential of AUKUS.

WHEN
Friday, 19 May
11.00am–12.00pm

WHERE
Zoom webinar, register here.

COST
Free, but registration required.

REGISTER HERE
 

"We long ago passed the time where opposition parties tried to hold up supply in Australia [...] but that effectively is what you've got in the US."

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese | 17 May 2023

 

REPORT

Breaking the barriers: Reforming US export controls to realise the potential of AUKUS

Dr William Greenwalt, Non-Resident Senior Fellow; Tom Corben, Research Fellow

Realising the full potential of AUKUS will not be possible without major changes to the way that the three countries cooperate on defence industrial and technology issues. As the Biden administration’s own 2022 National Defense Strategy makes clear: “Business as usual… is not acceptable.”

The obstacles to making good on these pronouncements are significant. Foremost among them, however, are US defence export control regimes, particularly the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). Designed in and for an era of US technology and strategic dominance, these regulations have increasingly figured as roadblocks to defence industrial and technology integration programs with the United States’ closest allies, including Australia and the United Kingdom.

In fact, AUKUS represents at least the third bite at the export control reform apple.

 

This is an excerpt from a new USSC report.

READ MORE HERE
 

PODCAST

The Asia Chessboard | Economics, security and alignment: The perspective from Australia

Co-hosts Dr Michael Green (CEO of the United States Studies Centre) and Jude Blanchette (Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies) are joined by Scott Morrison, former Australian Prime Minister and leader of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party from 2018–22.

The conversation begins by assessing developments in China-Australia relations during Morrison’s time in office, delving into the various equities at play and domestic debates that unfolded as the government reevaluated the links between economics and national security and moved to a tougher approach on China. 

The Asia Chessboard is co-produced by the United States Studies Centre and Center for Strategic and International Studies and features in-depth conversations with the most prominent strategic thinkers on Asia.

LISTEN HERE
 

BY THE NUMBERS

Sydney Quad cancellation a missed opportunity for the region

The cancellation of the Sydney Quad Leaders' Summit slated for next week misses an opportunity to showcase US commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. As Research Associate Alice Nason showed in a report last year, high-level US diplomatic visits to Europe in the first 18 months of the Biden administration outnumbered those to the Indo-Pacific by a factor of three.

There are numerous obstacles to greater Quad cooperation. Another upcoming USSC report will explore the issues facing the Quad grouping and propose new pathways for cooperation between the four partners. Subscribe to receive publication notifications and be in-the-know as soon as the report is released.

READ MORE HERE
 

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney is a university-based research centre, dedicated to the rigorous analysis of American foreign policy, economics, politics and culture. The Centre is a national resource, that builds Australia’s awareness of the dynamics shaping America — and critically — their implications for Australia.

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