Models indicate a neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for the South West Land Division (SWLD) for summer (December 2025 to February 2026), meaning extreme wet or dry conditions are unlikely, although a broad range of rainfall outcomes remains possible. Both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal for summer (December 2025 to February 2026) and into early next year (January to March 2026).
Recent conditions:
- A series of low-pressure systems and several troughs drawing tropical moisture southwards brought showers and storms throughout November. Some parts of the Central Wheatbelt and Great Southern experienced hail, and dry lightning ignited fires in the Central West. The highest November total was 130 mm at Bureau of Meteorology (The Bureau) weather station Kimberley (near Denmark).
- Days above 32 °C from August to November were below average across much of the SWLD, resulting in a relatively mild finish to the season. The Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) weather station at Mullewa recorded the highest number of days above 32 °C, with 28. Northampton West was the warmest site, reaching 41.5 °C.
The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for summer 2025, released by AFAC (the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services) indicates increased risk of fire over summer from high fuel loads in Yalgoo and Geraldton sandplains. Persistent soil moisture deficits are driving increased bushfire risk in the South West and South East Coastal forecast districts.
Rainfall summary
Rainfall for November was above average due to a series of low-pressure systems and several troughs drawing tropical moisture southward. As a result, the month saw numerous showers and storms, including hail in parts of the Central Wheatbelt and Great Southern. The highest total for November was 130 mm at the Bureau’s Kimberley weather station near Denmark, while the lowest was 2 mm at Muresk.
Figure 1: Rainfall (mm) totals for November 2025 in the SWLD. Kimberley (near Denmark) has recorded the highest total of 130 mm, Muresk the lowest with 2 mm.
Number of days above 32 °C (heat stress)
Temperatures above 32°C during the flowering and grain-filling stages can negatively impact yield by reducing pollen viability, which subsequently decreases grain size and weight, and can alter protein content. The map showing the average number of days above 32°C from August to November for 2000–24 indicates that the Central West forecast district experiences the highest number of heat days, with the season typically finishing earlier as a result. For instance, Mullewa records an average of 25 days above 32°C, this year Mullewa had 28 days, however generally 2025 has been relatively mild in terms of heat events for the rest of the SWLD.
The average maximum temperature map for 2000-24 for the SWLD shows the Central West forecast district with considerable high temperatures. With Mullewa having the highest maximum temperature of 41 °C. In contrast, August – November 2025 was mild with Mullewa recording only 39.4 °C. Northampton West had the highest maximum temperature of 41.5 °C.
Figure 2: Average number of days above 32°C for August to November 2000–24 for the SWLD. Mullewa has the highest average, with 25 days above 32°C.
Figure 3: Number of days above 32 °C for August to November 2025 for the SWLD. Mullewa has the highest number of days with heat stress, with 28 days above 32 °C.
Figure 4: Average maximum temperature for August to November 2000–24 for the SWLD. Mullewa has the highest average, with 41 °C.
Figure 5: Maximum temperature for August-November 2025 for the SWLD. Northampton West had the highest temperature with 41.5 °C.
Seasonal Bushfire Outlook summer 2025
The Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for summer 2025, released by AFAC, highlights an increased risk of fire across southern parts of Australia. The increased bushfire risk potential is driven in part by severe rainfall deficits across parts of Victoria, along with high fuel loads in central northern NSW and the Yalgoo and the Geraldton Sandplains regions in WA. Persistent soil moisture deficits in parts of WA are driving increased bushfire risk in northern parts of the Swan Coastal Plain, jarrah forest, Esperance plains and Mallee regions.
Figure 6: AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for summer 2025, indicating higher fire risk for parts of the Yalgoo and the Geraldton Sandplains, Swan Coastal Plain, jarrah forest, Esperance plains and Mallee regions.
Rainfall outlooks
Three-month and single-month rainfall outlooks are derived from a range of national and international climate models. The outlooks are presented as the probability of rainfall being below, above, or neutral relative to the median rainfall (Note: A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible). To provide a more localised perspective, the SWLD has been divided into 2 regions, allowing for tailored rainfall outlooks specific to each area.
Figure 7: Rainfall outlooks are in 2 sections based on location in the SWLD ̶ first group includes Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts, second group includes Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts.
Rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 12 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for December 2025. This neutral model consensus applies up until May 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible. However, it is important to note that forecast reliability decreases with longer lead times.
Figure 8: Single month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to May 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall for January to May. Remember that forecasts become less reliable the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for summer (December 2025 to February 2026), 11 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. This neutral outlook continues until autumn (March to May 2026). A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible.
Figure 9: Three month model summaries of rainfall outlooks for the Central West and Central Wheatbelt forecast districts of the SWLD up to autumn 2026 (March to May). Model consensus is for neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. Remember that forecasts become less reliable the further ahead they look.
Rainfall outlooks for the Lower west, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD
Single month
A summary of 14 national and international models shows that 12 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall for December 2025. This neutral model consensus continues up until May 2026. A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall amounts remains possible.
Figure 10: Single month model summaries of rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to May 2026. The majority of models are indicating neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall until the end of the year. Remember that forecasts become less reliable the further ahead they look.
Three month
A summary of 17 national and international models shows that for November 2025 to January 2026, 9 models indicate neutral chances of exceeding median rainfall. This neutral outlook continues until autumn (March to May 2026). A neutral outlook suggests that extreme wet or dry events are less likely, and a wide range of rainfall remains possible. It is important to note that forecast reliability decreases with longer lead times.
Figure 11: Three month model summaries for rainfall for the Lower West, South West, Great Southern, South Coastal and South East Coastal forecast districts of the SWLD up to summer, December 2025 and February 2026. Model consensus is for neutral chance of exceeding median rainfall.
Important disclaimer
The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.
Copyright © State of Western Australia (Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development), 2025
