7 October 2026

The US midterm elections are less than a month away. This year’s election is one of the most dramatic midterms in recent memory due to the mid-decade redistricting battles, voting rights challenges, ongoing war in the Middle East and cost-of-living issues facing voters. Here are three big questions the midterm elections will answer:

Will it be a referendum on Trump 2.0?
President Trump’s second term has been marked by reform at a breakneck pace, an ask for forgiveness rather than permission approach to issues like tariffs and a reversal on campaign promises, such as “no new wars.” The midterm elections will be the first time voters have gone to the polls nationally since his victory in 2024. Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the sitting president. President Trump seems even more determined to make this the case, holding a major midterms rally in Texas and begging voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. Polling shows his disapproval rating at its highest level (61%) and key voting groups are signalling a significant shift away from the president.

Can Democrats win both houses of Congress?
The latest polls have Democrats likely to win an additional 5-15 seats, securing a majority in the House. These projections even factor in the mid-cycle redistricting, which shows Republicans with an advantage compared to what they had before. However, the redrawn maps favouring Democrats undo some of this advantage and the redistricted maps themselves carry some risk by diluting previously “safe” seats. The Senate will be a harder battle and the balance will likely be determined by one or two seats. Of the 35 Senate seats up for election, 22 are currently held by Republicans. The closest Senate races to watch include: Maine (Collins-R vs Jackson-D), Ohio (Brown-D vs Husted-R), Michigan (El-Sayed-D vs Rogers-R) and Texas (Paxton-R vs Talarico-D).

If Democrats win control of the House, they will have the power to launch investigations, influence the budget and decide which bills get voted on. If they win control of the Senate as well, they will have much more power in driving the legislative agenda.

Will the polling get it right?
Polling for the midterm elections has been more accurate in the last three cycles than the polling for the general elections. However, while midterms polling may get the balance right between Democrats and Republicans as a whole, it has been less accurate at the state level. Given how tight many of the races are for both the House and the Senate and how close the balance will be for the majority on both sides, we may not know the new balance of power until the final mail in ballots are tallied in slower states like California, Arizona and Maine.

If US politics is the equivalent of your sporting final, I hope you can join us for our special midterms events both before and after the midterms. View the latest events here. Our politics events often sell out, so sign up to our event email list so you will always be the first to know.

Lead image: This year’s election is one of the most dramatic midterms in recent memory due to the mid-decade redistricting battles, voting rights challenges, ongoing war in the Middle East and cost-of-living issues facing voters. (Photo by Jeff Dean/Getty Images)

"MY RALLIES ARE SAVING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AGAIN!!!"

President Trump on Truth Social | 6 October 2026

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