4 June 2025

Shortly before Christmas of 2023, Ukrainian officials began plotting an unprecedented attack that would strike deep inside Russia and cause significant damage to their war-fighting capabilities. Over the course of the 18 months since then, Ukraine smuggled 117 drones into Russia in the roofs of wooden cabins, which could be remotely operated to release the drones. On Sunday, the drones targeted four Russian airbases, with the farthest one on the Eastern side of Russia, about 6,000km from the Ukrainian border.

US officials said they were not given advance notice of the attack, which escalated the war ahead of scheduled peace talks between Ukraine and Russia (The peace talks went ahead, both sides agreeing to a prisoner exchange, but not a ceasefire). In their drone strikes, Ukraine struck Russian bombers, which US officials said Ukraine knew were off-limits for attacks.

This highly secretive and effective attack raises questions about President Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defence initiative. Based on Israel’s Iron Dome, the Golden Dome would intercept incoming projectiles to shield the United States, through land, sea and space-based anti-missile weapons. But the success of Ukraine’s innovative attack highlights the security risks around novel threats, rather than the traditional missile threats.

As USSC Research Fellow Tom Corben explains in his brief in the new Unpacking Trump 2.0 report, the mismatch between Trump administration rhetoric and action on defence spending raises questions about the administration’s ability to deliver on initiatives like the Golden Dome.

Mari Koeck
Director, Engagement and Impact

Lead image: Ukrainian soldiers from a drone unit tasked with mining the grey zone between the Ukrainian front and Russian lines are seen at the shelter as they make preparations to go to the city of Pokrovsk, Ukraine on 27 May 2025 (Photo by Jose Colon/Anadolu for Getty Images).

"Whatever happens in global competition, it is our shared duty – Europe’s, America’s,
and everyone who values freedom
– to defend it together."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a summit in Vilnius | 2 June 2025

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The architects of US security policy, including in the new Trump administration, generally recognise that the United States needs allies more rather than less in the face of China’s growing capabilities and ambitions. US forces cannot execute war plans without more distributed access, basing and overflight arrangements given the People’s Liberation Army’s numerical advantage in the Indo-Pacific. Allies like Japan and South Korea are indispensable, not only for geography but also shipbuilding and semiconductor technology needed in the competition for dominance in AI. Australia’s geography is critical as it was in the Second World War. Australia also brings other irreplaceable capabilities in areas such as critical minerals, space and intelligence. No official in the Trump administration has argued that the United States can go it alone against China in the Indo-Pacific, a point even tariff hawks like Robert Lighthizer emphasise.

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