NEWS WRAP

Russia’s chemical weapons threat

• Chemical weapons a game changer | Asked if the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine by Russia would be a red line that would trigger NATO involvement, Polish President Andrzej Duda said: "If he uses any weapons of mass destruction then this will be a game changer in the whole thing." His comments come after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine would constitute a war crime. READ MORE
   

• Russia strikes near Poland | Dozens of people were killed as Russian troops launched multiple air raids on a large Ukrainian military facility outside the city of Lviv near the Polish border, Ukrainian officials said. The attack appeared to be the westernmost attack since Moscow launched its invasion. NATO member nations have so far supplied Ukraine with weapons and sought to isolate Putin by imposing harsh economic sanctions, seeking to avoid becoming directly involved. READ MORE
   

• Bombing near US consulate in Iraq | Two explosive-laden drones were shot down by Iraq's air defences as they approached the Ain al-Asad air base, which hosts US forces. It is the second attack in two days after two drones were downed near Baghdad international airport. Iran claimed responsibility for a missile barrage that struck near the US consulate in northern Iraq shortly after negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal were put on pause. READ MORE
   

• Trump accused of breaking finance law | One of the biggest Democratic Party fundraising groups, American Bridge, said it filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission accusing Donald Trump of breaking campaign finance law by spending political donations on a 2024 U.S. presidential bid he has yet to formally launch. It follows Trump’s rally in Florence, South Carolina, where he hinted at running in 2024. READ MORE
   

• Interest rate rise tipped to combat inflation | US consumer price gains accelerated in February to a fresh 40-year high on rising petrol, food and housing costs, with inflation poised to rise even further following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The consumer price index jumped 7.9 per cent from a year earlier following a 7.5 per cent annual gain in January. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates next week for the first time since 2018. READ MORE

ANALYSIS

The prospects of transatlantic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Dr Gorana Grgic
Senior Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy, United States Studies Centre

The Biden administration’s strong transatlantic credentials and commitment to repairing relations with Europe raised concerns among Indo-Pacific allies about a potential shift in US regional priorities. Transatlantic cooperation was undermined by two crises: European criticism of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the French government’s fury at AUKUS, which was announced just a day before the European Union released its long-awaited strategy for the Indo-Pacific.

These diplomatic imbroglios seem a distant memory now the United States and its European allies face the reality of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Given the seismic impact of the events unfolding in Eastern Europe, worries abound that the acuteness of this security crisis might demote the imperative of transatlantic coordination and cooperation on China and their Indo-Pacific strategies. At the moment, such efforts appear inchoate at best and mostly limited to trade and technology talks. Yet, before “Europe’s 9/11” happened, 2022 was poised to be an important year for the course of transatlantic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. This was primarily due to the publication of key strategies and the crystallisation of domestic politics in the leading European states.

First, following a number of defence initiatives put forward over the past half a decade, the European Union is set to adopt its first common threat analysis and signal the extent to which it sees itself evolving as a military actor in a Strategic Compass in March 2022. There remains widespread criticism of the European Union for the absence of a European consensus on defence priorities and the perennial mismatch between instruments the European Union wields and the spectrum of security challenges it identifies.

Another key strategic document will be unveiled at NATO’s Madrid Summit in June 2022. The alliance’s new Strategic Concept will replace the 2010 version, which made no mention of China and saw most security challenges in the context of threats from non-state actors and crisis management outside the transatlantic space. This time around, NATO’s global partnerships, including that with Australia, will be an important feature of the Strategic Concept. This is part of the endeavour to elevate the importance of cooperative security — NATO’s core task since 2010 — and particularly in the context of coordination with Indo-Pacific partners to address global challenges ranging from traditional security matters to the emerging and disruptive technologies.

Lastly, the United Kingdom is already on the diplomatic march in the Indo-Pacific given its quest to build global influence in the post-Brexit era, as evidenced by the fact that it plans to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in 2022. This will add to the more recent developments aimed at building the United Kingdom’s presence through initiatives such as AUKUS, joining of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a dialogue partner, and deployment of a maritime task force.

This is an excerpt from a feature in State of the United States: Biden's agenda in the balance

BY THE NUMBERS | STATE OF THE UNITED STATES
Americans barely differ from Australians in levels of authoritarianism, but the US connection between political preference and authoritarianism is stronger
Distribution of authoritarianism by country and political support, formed by analysis of USSC surveys December 2021. In the US data, respondents are grouped by recalled vote in the 2020 presidential election; in the Australian data, by recalled 2019 House of Representatives vote. Details on scale construction appear in the methodological appendix.

Authoritarian support: Aus vs US .11 units apart | Biden vs Trump voters 1.18 units apart

In our State of the United States (SOTUS) report for this year, we explored authoritarian versus populist tendencies in Australia and the United States.

Overall, Americans score a little higher on authoritarianism than Australians, but these aggregate, cross-country differences are overwhelmed by the variation within each country. As reported in SOTUS appendix Table A3, the average difference between the United States and Australia is just 0.11 units, with the difference between Trump and Biden voters more than 10 times larger (1.18 units). Moreover, the probability that an American chosen at random has a higher level of authoritarianism than a randomly selected Australian is barely better than a coin flip, at 54 per cent; in contrast, a randomly chosen Trump voter has an 80 per cent chance of being more than a randomly chosen Biden voter.

The Trump influence in both the United States and Australia will also be explored in an upcoming book from Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe. Add it to your 2023 reading list now.

This is adapted from America's illiberal turn? by Prof Simon Jackman in this year's State of the United States report.

VIDEO

State of the United States 2021 | Keynote address from Ambassador Atul Keshap

In 2021, the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and the Perth USAsia Centre at The University of Western Australia hosted a conference for the launch of their joint publication, “State of the United States: An evolving alliance agenda”. The half-day event featured panel discussions and a keynote speech from Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Ambassador Atul Keshap.

Tune in here to watch his remarks from our inaugural State of the United States conference.

Catch more analysis on the United States on the USSC YouTube channel.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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