| Volume 15, Issue 2: winter 2024 |
|
|
| Welcome to the Milking the Weather e-Newsletter: winter 2024 |
|
|
|
|
| Farmers managing seasonal risk successfully – June 2024 farmer case studies |
|
|
Milking the Weather caught up with regulars Kevin Fitzsimmons from Merrigum in the Northern Irrigation Region and Stephen and Jessica Knight from Stratford Gippsland in the Macalister Irrigation District.
|
|
|
|
| Kevin and Jason Fitzsimmons, Merrigum, Northern Irrigation Region |
|
|
When we last caught up with Kevin six months ago at the start of December, the season was looking promising with a good hay harvest with plenty of fodder reserves, milk production was on track for a 10% increase for the season and there was plenty of irrigation water around. This time at start of the 2024 winter season Kevin was joined by his son Jason and they shared the following.
|
|
|
|
An easy summer
Summer was one of the easiest management wise, with regular rainfall events commencing on Christmas Day followed by further rain every 7 to 10 days through January, which has never ever happened in our farming life. Normally in January we are going flat out with irrigating perennial pastures. Every time I was thinking of putting an order in, we get another lot of rain come through, which wasn't predicted with models forecasting El Nino conditions may develop.
We didn’t have to irrigate in January at all which was extraordinary. It also brought the price of water down, from a season peak of $160 per megalitre. It was really timely for us, we didn't have to purchase a lot of water over summer and when we did, later in the season, it had dropped down to $30 per megalitre and at the very end of the season we paid $20.
Weeds
The rain created weed growth in the annual paddocks, but we managed this by running the cross bred beef calves (speckle park and angus crosses) over these areas and this saved us having to feed them hay or other feed. These paddocks were then over sown with a rye grass and shaftal clover mix prior to watering in the autumn.
Beef calves
Back in September 2021 Kevin discussed plans to utilise sexed semen and breeding crossbred cows to Speckle Parks.
We have continued to use sexed semen to breed heifers for the herd. The crossbred cows and cows we don’t want to breed replacements from are bred to a speckle park or angus bull. Rather than aiming to milk 500 cows we are running 150 to 200 head of beef crosses ranging from 2 years old down to poddy claves to diversify our risk.
Currently beef prices have come back but we haven’t sold any recently, but with prices in America and this rain, prices may start to pick back up. Our core focus is the dairy and if we aren’t making money out of beef, or if it puts too much pressure on feed or labour, we will stop doing it.
Dry autumn
A dry autumn saw the sowing of the annual pastures on the dairy platform to shaftal and ryegrass. We over sowed the newly acquired farm with ryegrass as we were planning to utilise the area for young stock and hay. Since sowing, part of this area will be incorporated into the milking platform.
We have completed our first grazing and starting the second rotation. We have had cold weather over the last two weeks which has seen pasture production slow down. We will look to put urea on to keep the grass growing.
We will dry the August calving cows off in the middle of the month taking the pressure off and allowing us to focus on other areas of the farm.
The recent laser graded ground has been resown to perennial pasture but hasn’t been grazed yet and will graze when we dry the stale cows off, as long as it doesn’t get too wet increasing the risk of pugging.
Vetch
We have now sown most of the lease block, 110 hectares, to vetch as a break crop from cereal crops we have grown on this area for several years. There is also 200 grams of canola in the mix per hectare to provide a scaffolding for the vetch to grow on. The rain in the last fortnight has germinated the crop and looking to make some good quality hay.
We have sown vetch as we have bought vetch hay in the past and have seen the difference in milk production when we have fed it out compared to cereal. It may be a bit more difficult to make quality hay if it is a wet spring (the long range forecast predicting a wet spring) and will need to assess what the options are with round bale silage is an option, but it is more work and cost.
Fodder Supplies
With the dry autumn we have less hay at this stage in the season than we initially anticipated, as we have been feeding a fair bit out, but won’t need to buy in any and should still have some left over going into spring which will go towards building a reserve. Our goal would be to have a 12-month reserve. With limited shed space most of the hay is out in the open and it starts to deteriorate if left in the open for longer than 12 months. We aren’t in the financial position, at the moment, to build big sheds to store it all.
Securing home grown feed
We have been busy with the recent acquisition of the remaining portion of the neighbour’s property to secure home grown feed. The plan is to milk off part of the property, raise the young stock on the other part which is further from the dairy, and harvest extra hay in the spring. The farm is well laid out with good irrigation infrastructure. We have commenced upgrading fencing and the stock water pipes. Work to connect the laneways with the dairy platform will happen over summer.
This is part of the plan to increase cow numbers to 400 cows. The aim will be to increase numbers to 350 at the August calving and to 380 with the December calving with herd numbers reassessed with the seasonal conditions and price of water.
New glycol chiller
We have just installed a second-hand glycol chiller a bit over a month ago and upgraded the plate cooler. Using the old plate cooler, the milk was entering the vat at 18 to 20 degrees Celsius, and the vat was running for a couple of hours after milking. With the glycol chiller the milk is now entering the vat at 6 degrees Celsius and when we turn the machines off the vat is already off.
The season ahead
We have parked water for the first time to carry over into the 2024-25 irrigation season. We have lost water to spills the last couple of years and we are not prepared to lose water this year with Eildon at 90% capacity and a long-range forecast of a wetter than average spring.
With the long-range forecast and irrigation water availability, we haven’t made any drastic changes to the plan for the season ahead.
After investing in the farm infrastructure over the last couple of years we plan to spend the next 12 months consolidating.
|
|
|
|
| Stephen and Jessica Knight, Stratford, Gippsland, Macalister Irrigation District |
|
|
The last time we caught up with Stephen and Jessica, the ryegrass pastures were dropping off in quality, 10 hectares of chicory had been sown to fill the summer feed gap and the harvest of silage and hay was underway. They also shared their long-term plans to upgrade their irrigation infrastructure to meet best practice standards, with three center-pivot irrigators on the way. We caught up with Stephen and Jessica in early June to see how they are managing the autumn and their plans for the season ahead. They shared the following.
|
|
|
|
A wet start to summer then turned dry
The first half of summer was wet, delaying hay making and reducing irrigation requirements.
The 10 hectares of chicory we sowed in spring was disappointing as it was too wet. It was an insurance policy we didn’t really need in the end, this season. When we normally need it, due to feed gaps, we were growing enough grass. The season then flipped, and we made the call to bring it back into pasture quicker than normal.
Conditions dried up in mid-January and we irrigated flat out to the start of April, that’s when we got a good 60 mm rainfall event, but no subsequent rain events resulting in irrigating since then.
The irrigated milking platform has been fantastic with really good growth rates. The milking herd stocking rate is well matched to the irrigated area. We applied water as needed to meet pasture demand.
The dryland support country has been difficult to manage as there has been minimal growth right through from the spring.
Heavily feeding stock
We have been heavily feeding all classes of stock since February. We have fed the milkers about 300 tonnes of silage, and have around 250 tonnes left with another 100 tonnes of vetch which will get us through to spring with some carryover.
We are carrying a lot of young stock this season and have been hand feeding silage, grain, and hay since the start of February and still are. This has depleted dry cow feed and young stock feed. We had to buy a little bit of feed and will buy the tonnages we need to get through the winter now, which should only be another load of hay.
Autumn pastures
Any underperforming or underachieving pastures were knocked out late January and we tried to have all pastures sown by mid-March. This worked well on the milking platform (which is irrigated). We were able to water pastures up on the milking area and they were back in the round quickly.
Pastures were sown to perennial or Italian varieties of ryegrass with clovers occurring naturally in our paddocks. We try to buy varieties with endophyte, despite these being more expensive, to mitigate insect attacks. We learnt this during the big drought and this strategy has worked well for us again this autumn.
The sowing of the dryland country was delayed until late March to early April as we waited for moisture. Some of the dryland areas have been grazed but others are moisture stressed and sitting there not doing a lot waiting for rain.
Wet start caused some issues
The wet start to summer caused foot rot in the spring calves which was attributed back to moisture hanging in the paddocks. Pink eye occurred in young stock despite vaccination. It took us back to times before we routinely vaccinated, undertaking the lengthy process of treating them.
A positive out of the negative
The dry autumn saw fantastic conditions for making milk and calving cows. There was no mud. We didn’t have any calf sickness at all, no bugs or viruses came into the calf sheds. The calves came in and we reared them. We have been really happy with one of the best batches of calves we have had and an average weaning weight of 4 kilograms above the spring calves. These conditions have also been ideal for drying off cows.
Irrigation and water security
The wet first half of summer allowed water to be carried into the autumn. We have used our allocated water this season, but we still have our entire 250 megalitre turkey nest dam in reserves so have been comfortable to put water on as needed. An advantage of being an Avon River irrigator has enabled us to continue irrigating after the traditional irrigation season in the Macalister Irrigation District has closed.
Irrigation upgrades
In the last six months, we have improved irrigation on 14 hectares. In this dry season where there is a notable difference in dryland growth rates, we look forward to being able to develop more in the next 12 months.
We have been looking at our irrigation infrastructure with the aim of making it more efficient and easier to manage and operate. We have put in three new center pivots to replace old bike shift sprays and one replaces old flood bays which had badly worn-down check banks, so when irrigating you were irrigating the whole paddock. The new pivots are much easier as there is no need to do bike shifts, you can just click a button and you know everything is going to work. We can see improved pasture response compared to when we were moving sprays.
Overall, an 8/10 season
We have had to irrigate heavily this season, but we are an irrigated dairy farm, and it is what we do and how we farm.
It was predicted it was going to be dry. We have had such good seasons for the last three years and it couldn’t stay that good for that long. We expect one dry year out of five. We try to be proactive instead of reactive and be ready with water.
As soon as it dried up, we were straight on to everything and trying to grow as much as we could.
Managing the winter
There is a substantial feed wedge on our milking platform which we are comfortable and happy with.
We are currently managing pastures so they are ready to grow when the days start to get longer by protecting residuals in paddocks so when we get rain they will respond. We will leave a healthy residual in the paddock, looking into the future growth of that paddock.
The milkers are supplemented with silage fed out in the paddock and grain in the dairy. The rotation and supplementation are based on Feeding Pastures for Profit principles; grazing at the three-leaf stage, protecting residuals, and monitoring the milk vat. Our assistant manager has just completed FPFP so we are working with them so they can gain the skills to manage the pasture as well.
The plan for the season ahead
The concern is if the rain doesn’t come over winter, delaying silage and hay production and putting things back a step.
Looking ahead if the rain doesn’t come, we will be asking ourselves what are we going to do? What are our feed reserves? What do we need to buy in?
Moving into spring we will be looking at the seasonal forecast and at hay and grain prices, along with market trends. If we see a load of hay at a reasonable price and the prediction is that prices are to go up, we will buy it. The same with grain. If there is a good price to lock in on contract, we are going to do that as we don’t want to be in the middle of spring with no grass and need to buy in feed at a really high price. We have the storage space to store 700t of hay. We maintain good relationships with our grain company and when they are on the lookout, they ring us to say this is available.
|
|
|
|
| Victorian seasonal climate summary (autumn 2024) and outlook (winter 2024) in brief |
|
|
|
|
-
Autumn rainfall across Australia was 32.1% above the 1961-1990 average and highest since 2011. In Victoria, total autumn rainfall averaged 84.99mm, 46.6% below the average.
-
Victoria’s west and east saw below average rainfalls with the northeast and southwest regions in particular receiving very much below average. For the central third of the state, rainfall was generally average.
-
Both March and May were below average for rainfall across much of the state, with parts of the Southwest, Central, North Central and West and South Gippsland district recording their lowest March rainfall on record. This is likely due to a greater frequency of large high pressure systems, resulting in dryer conditions across the state.
-
On the other hand, many sites across the state recorded their highest April rainfalls totals for at least 20 years with both central and southern parts of the state recording above average April rainfall totals.
-
Strong cold fronts on both April 2 and May 31 brought may areas of the state their highest rainfall day this autumn.
-
Nationally, Autumn area-averaged mean temperature was 0.53°C above the long-term average (1961-1990).
-
Victoria’s average area-averaged mean maximum temperature was 21.44°C and 1.15°C above the long-term average and 7th highest on record. The area-averaged mean minimum temperature was 8.73°C and 0.33 °C below the long-term average.
-
Most of the state recorded above average mean maximum temperatures, particularly parts of the north-east that were very much above average.
-
Mean minimum temperatures varied, with the far east recording very much above average temperatures in comparison to the very much below average recording in the far west.
-
In line with the Bureau’s long-range forecast for autumn, the state saw above average day temperatures but night temperatures were closer to normal forecasts suggest warmer temperatures will continue over the next few months, with many models also suggesting that high pressure systems are likely to persist across the Bight this winter.
-
Autumn saw the end of the El Niño and a La Niña attempting to form in the eastern Pacific Ocean and many climate models predict one to occur this winter. However, currently there is no atmospheric support from winds, cloud or pressure for this formation. It’s worth noting that ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) predictions made in late summer and autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. The BoM warns that significant global warming of oceans over the past 50 years may impact future ENSO events differently to historical patterns. Therefore, ENSO forecasts beyond June should be noted with caution.
-
The eastern Indian Ocean warmed during May and atmospherically has been normal. Low pressure and greater cloud paired with warmer waters in the west shows some +IOD like behaviour.
-
An assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria suggests another season of planning for anything in terms of rainfall, with mixed predictions, although it is likely to be drier in the Southwest. Temperatures are likely to be warmer. Historic model accuracy for winter is moderate to low.
-
During winter, look for developments in both the Pacific and Indian Ocean which will provide a clearer outlook for spring. In particular stronger easterly winds in the central Pacific and/or stronger easterly winds around Sumatra which might indicate formation of a La Nina or +IOD. At this stage, anything is possible.
|
|
|
| Current relevant and useful climate links |
|
|
Visit Agriculture Victoria’s The Break Newsletters’ page for regular and latest updates on oceanic and atmospheric climate driver activity, summaries of model predictions for rainfall and temperature forecasts in Victoria. While you are there you might like to subscribe to the monthly break e-newsletter if you are not already receiving it.
Below is a comprehensive list of useful website that cover a range of climate related information on past conditions, climate industry and driver maps, as well as educational products.
|
|
|
My Climate View is a digital information product that provides Australian farmers with tailored insights into their changing climate to help inform decision-making and build their climate and drought resilience into the future.
|
|
|
|
Climate Analogues is a web application that displays three locations and their respective climates, each of which has a similar climate today as a location defined by what the user could have in the future.
|
|
|
|
Past conditions
Latest seasonal rainfall decile maps
Latest seasonal rainfall total maps
123 Years of Australian rainfall maps: a pdf document of 123 Australian maps showing the decile rank of rainfall for each calendar year from 1900 to 2022.
Latest Victorian soil moisture map
Maximum and minimum temperature deciles and other temperature related maps
113 Years of Australian temperature maps: a pdf document of 113 maps showing the anomaly of mean temperature for each calendar year from 1910 to 2022, compared to the average over the standard reference period of 1961- 1990.
|
|
|
|
|
| Victorian dairying areas seasonal soil moisture condition assessment: autumn review and winter update 2023/24 |
|
|
Richard Smith and Michele Jolliffe, Dairy Extension Officers, Agriculture Victoria
|
|
|
Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture probes on dryland sites greatly assist farmers with making early decisions related to crop and pasture management in the cropping, meat and wool grazing, and dairying industries.
Currently there are 30 probes installed on a range of soil and pasture types across Victoria in dryland sites. Three of the more established sites are located on dryand dairy farms in Jancourt (south-west Victoria), Longwarry (west Gippsland) and Jack River near Yarram (south Gippsland).
Telemetry at Jack River soil moisture monitoring site guarded with stock protective fencing.
|
|
|
|
The installed probes measure adjacent soil moisture at each of these 30 monitoring sites and are best described as capacitance types. They are are 80 centimetres long with eight internal sensors to provide soil water content values and temperature every 10 centimetres. Sites are best assessed individually as the different soil types means they can not be directly compared to others. Also, these probes are useful in showing total soil moisture levels from estimated plant available water and relative movement/use of moisture down the profile.
|
|
|
A monthly analysis of all monitoring sites is produced by Agriculture Victoria as an e-newsletter
A live interactive Soil Moisture Monitoring Dashboard can be found here
In this article, we feature the Jancourt, Longwarry and Yarram site (marked with a green tick) through a detailed update on the key recent soil moisture level observations from autumn as well as relevant future insights for this winter.
|
|
|
|
|
| Longwarry Perennial pasture, West Gippsland Update |
|
|
Soil Type: Brown Dermosol
Soil Texture: Clay Loam
Entering autum, the site was sitting 35%, this drying condition continued till April. When the rainfall occurred raising it 46% and over the next month a steady raise was observed till the end of May were it sits at 87%.
The dry condition during March saw pasture showing increased moisture stress. The rain during April led to good growth in the area for mixed grasses and chicory. With the winter sowing schedule continuing during this time. During May pastures still maintained good growth even with decrease in soil temperature.
As shown by the moisture speedo graph below the Longwarry site is typical of west Gippsland with green pasture still on offer. With the current moisture above the just slightly behind last year.
For Longwarry, BOM rainfall forecast indicates no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall for June to August. Over the same period maximum temperatures well above average with unusually warm condition with a likelihood of 89%, minimum temperatures are well above average and unusually warm are expected with a likelihood of 81%. Currently BOM forecast model is for neither above or below-median rainfall. For current and overall soil moisture (10 to 80 centimetres) data for the Longwarry chicory probe site, as shown below, visit here.
|
|
|
|
Moisture Speedo for chicory mix pasture probe (7 June 2024).
|
|
|
| Jancourt perennial pasture, south-west summary |
|
|
Soil Type: Grey Dermosol
Soil Texture: Clay Loam
Entering autumn soil moisture was very low sitting at the refill point. During autumn rainfall was well below average with only 123.8mm falling, with 34.8mm falling on the 1 April. This saw soil moisture spike however by 2 April this fell to 30.5% and continued to slowly decrease and plateau to finish Autumn sitting at 19%.
Entering autumn dryland pastures showed little growth with only green pick in some areas, forage crops showed moisture stress. As March progressed pasture browned and were only suitable for dry feed. Silage and fodder crops were being fed out. This progressed and saw an increase of conserved feed being fed and hay being fed out. For Jancourt the BOM rainfall forecast indicates no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall for June to August.
Over the same period maximum temperatures are expected to be well above average with unusually warm condition with a likelihood of 94%, with above minimum temperatures well above average and unusually warm are expected with a likelihood of 85%.
For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Jancourt pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit here.
|
|
|
|
Moisture Speedo for Jancourt perennial pasture probe (7 June 2024)
|
|
|
| Yarram pasture, south Gippsland summary |
|
|
Soil Type: Brown Sodosol
Soil Texture: Clay Loam
Jack River was typical of those in South Gippsland, with the site entering autumn with a soil moisture at 51%. Drawdown continued till the start of April when rainfall increased soil moisture, level plateaued and exited autumn sat at 54%.
The dry condition during March showed with pasture showing increased moisture stress. The rain during April led to good growth in the area for mixed grasses and chicory. It also saw ryegrass pastures emerge and winter sowing schedule continuing during this time. During May pastures still maintained good growth. For June to August, the BOM is forecasting maximum temperatures well above average with unusually warm condition with a likelihood of 89%, minimum temperatures are well above average and unusually warm are expected with a likelihood of 83%.
BOM rainfall forecast indicates no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall for June to August, the typical winter rainfall for the Jack river is expected. For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Yarram pasture site in Agriculutre Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit here.
|
|
|
|
Moisture Speedo for Yarram pasture probe (7 June 2024).
|
|
|
| Receiving Milking the Weather |
|
|
The Milking the Weather newsletter provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry, 4 times per year (summer, autumn, winter and spring).
Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.
To subscribe to the Milking the Weather e-newsletter, click here.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit author. To view a copy of this licence, visit creative commons.
Accessibility:
If you would like to receive this publication in an alternative format please telephone the Customer Service Centre on 136 186, or via the National Relay Service on 133 677 www.relayservice.com.au.
Disclaimer:
This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.
|
|
|
|
To provide feedback on the newsletter, request the latest edition in PDF format, or for assistance to subscribe/unsubscribe, please contact: Del Delpitiya
|
|
|
