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There are many factors that affect how we decide to vote in an election. The Conversation often publishes analyses of how age, class, location and education level make someone more or less likely to support any one political party. Election analysts look at long-term trends and shifts associated with these characteristics for insight into which way the political winds are blowing.
I was interested to learn that different Christian denominations in Britain have longstanding associations with the major parties. But the entry of Reform UK into the political landscape has shifted things. New polling by YouGov for the University of Exeter, published exclusively in The Conversation, shows that the party is winning over the Catholics who would once have supported Labour, and the Anglicans who would have backed the Conservatives. Stuart Fox, whose research focuses on political participation, breaks down the numbers here.
In his quest to win over voters of all stripes, Nigel Farage has warned that Britain is on the verge of “societal collapse” due to rampant crime. Earlier this week, he laid out Reform’s plans to halve crime. One of his proposed solutions is “tougher” police officers, saying that society needs a “tiny little bit of fear”.
With new crime statistics out this week, it’s worth taking a look at where he’s getting his data, and what the political implications of leaning into a narrative of fear can be. Emily Gray and Steve Farrall do just that in this piece.
They have studied how the political rhetoric during your formative years can shape what crimes you fear, well into middle age. If you grew up in the Thatcher years, it was property crime. If New Labour, it was antisocial behaviour. These fears, they found, persisted even as stats showed these crimes decreasing.
I grew up in the US, but was also exposed to this phenomenon. Thanks in part to the missing children panic of the Reagan years and the subsequent “stranger danger” narrative, I was terrified of being kidnapped. Though I now know that the vast majority of missing children are runaways, and most abducted children are taken by relatives, not strangers, this fear has stuck with me.
As Gray and Farrall write: “Our own analysis suggests the accuracy of crime statistics often matters less than how politicians frame public anxieties.” What will the effect be on a generation hearing rhetoric about societal collapse?
Several people have been arrested this week, as protests at hotels used to house asylum seekers turned violent. As Epping council votes to close a hotel, catch up on why Britain became dependent on asylum hotels in the first place.
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