Volume 16, Issue 4: Summer 2025      

Welcome to the summer edition of Milking the Weather

Farmers successfully managing seasonal risk

Bec Cameron, Dairy Extension Officer, Agriculture Victoria

As the festive season approaches, the weather continues to play a starring role in shaping life on our dairy farms. From managing pasture growth to keeping cows comfortable during summer heat, understanding and preparing for the seasons ahead is more important than ever.

In this summer issue of Milking the Weather, we’ll unwrap the latest seasonal outlook, share practical tips for navigating summer conditions and celebrate the hardiness of our farming community during this busy time of year. 

A very busy past 6 months both on and off the farm

Firstly, we have welcomed 2 new members to our family, a boy now 6 months old and a little girl just 2 weeks old and we are all are doing well.

On the farm this spring, the cows were averaging 28 litres (last year was 33) but our milk solids were higher than last year, 3.1 fat last year has improved to 4.2 to 4.3, so overall the total milk solids in the vat have increased slightly. A big improvement came from switching to a complete ration instead of crushing grain ourselves. In the past, we had problems with crushing failures which led to quality and an inconsistent grain ration. The other improvement that was made was we renovated and over sown our worst performing perennial pastures (19 hectare) and it’s made a huge difference, with improved quality.

We haven’t had any health problems at all. Twelve months ago, we were dealing with mid-lactation milk fevers, several cases at a time and at one point we had about ten cases in just two weeks. That’s all calmed down now, thankfully.

Last year we faced a few challenges as has been documented previously. We had dry cows with lupinosis after grazing vetch and then pasture issues that became very couch infested over last summer, this resulted in a big drop in milk production after Christmas. Also, our somatic cell count (SCC) spiked to around 160-190. That was a real concern at the time. Thankfully, things have improved significantly since then, we received an award for our milk quality (BMCC), but we dropped from gold to silver, so the challenge now is to get back there. Our most recent BMCC reading was 56 and lately it’s been sitting between 48 and 60.

Last autumn we sprayed out 10 hectares of permanent pasture, which was very couch dominant and planted it to shaftal and rye grass, which we decided to graze right through rather than cut for hay. We have now over sown that area with millet. Historically, those paddocks have caused milk volume drops in summer, so we’re hoping that won’t happen this year. We might see a slight drop in solids, but we’re confident milk volume will hold.

Calving is going well too (summer calving, we calve 3 times a year). When they are all in, we will peak at around 320 cows, so far there haven’t been any major issues. I (Jason) have taken back control from my brother (Sam) of the calf rearing management to improve calf health and make sure everything was done properly. I am very fussy about cleanliness in the calf shed. Our mortality rate had increased and now those little 1% make a big difference in cleanliness and bacteria control. Mortality rates are much better than before and overall we’re really pleased with how the spring calving season, and the summer calf rearing season has turned out so far.

A mixed hay season

Our cereal crops were down on volume due to the dry finish but quality was still very good. Our pasture hay was very good in both volume and quality, because we could irrigate and finish them off.

We produced around 700 rolls of cereal hay and over 2,000 other rolls, including silage and pasture hay across about 500 acres. Feed reserves were tight at the end of winter and we were down to our last seven bales. We stopped feeding out once our pasture was starting to take off and had a surplus. It was a fine margin. Comparing this to last year, we now have more hay on hand.

Young stock

We have been managing the young stock area, watering every 10-14 days. The Heifers will stay at home for 12–14 months before moving to the lease block for joining at 15–16 months of age, and they’ll calve down at 2 years.

We have a large number of heifers coming through in the next 12 months due to using sexed semen. This gives us the option of increasing the milking herd or selling excess heifers on the point of calving, but we’re happy around 300–330. Our culling regime is - older cows prone to mastitis, high cell counts, any structural problems like sore legs or feet, back problems and cows that have any temperament problems. That’s just part of the usual running of the business.

Farm Changes

The main change this year was the over sewing of permanent pasture paddocks much earlier than usual. Normally we focus on other things, but for a couple of weeks everything else took a back seat so we could get these paddocks over sown. We’re grazing them now, and the couch grass is virtually non-existent in those paddocks. We have increased the amount of fertiliser used this year (Urea and Super Phosphate). The reason for all this is to improve quality, increase quantity and manage the couch grass issue we had last year. Especially when production dropped from 30–33 litres per cow down to 22–23 litres after last Christmas.

Another change is in the feed mix at the dairy by adding garlic to help with flies. We haven’t had any issues so far, but if it can help prevent flies from landing on the cows, milking might become a more pleasant experience.

In the dairy we have also changed all the silicon hoses and replaced diaphragms and plungers in the cup removers. Our normal operation is to change the inflations every 4 months being at the start of each calving. We were chasing a mastitis outbreak with 4 clinical cases, with the BMCC at 170 at one point, compared to our usual 50. After the changes, the cows seem calmer and more docile. We also installed solar and batteries earlier this year. Other than that, it’s been a steady 6 months, just ticking along, making sure we stay profitable which is a challenge.

The beef cattle

We stated previously our intention is to transition out of beef and focus on the dairy cattle. We have sold about 50 head so far, have just finished calving down 27 cows, and are now being rejoined and hope to sell them sometime before next winter. We also have another 20 head mixed sex that are 12 months old, and hope to sell them within the next 12 months.

Future concerns and strategies

1. Water will always be an ongoing problem. We need to purchase approximately 1000 megs each year of temporary water and with the potential buy backs of water, that is only going to put pressure on supply. This will have a direct effect on price and may put at risk our future in the dairy industry, and after 3 generations now a fourth and possibly a fifth that will be a sad day.
2. Milk price underpins all. We currently supply Fonterra and with the sale to Lactalis, this has the potential to reduce demand in the market. We will be watching this space closely.
3. Strategy will to be as self sufficient as we can be, including controlling stock numbers and undertaking majority of work on the farm ourselves, i.e. sowing, hay making etc. and not relying on outside contractors.

Future projects

Over summer, we’re hoping to redo the track connecting the home block to our new block. We’ve talked about it for 12 months. Last winter season wasn’t too wet, but it’s only a matter of time before it gets wet again. We need to upgrade and re-gravel the tracks before next season, and one paddock on annual pasture block needs to be re-lasered. As with any projects we need to have cash flow and that means a good milk price.

In summary

Everything’s going well; cows are milking well. Fat and protein tests are higher than last year, thanks to better grain and less couch grass. We’re not feeding hay in the paddock, cows are grazing grass and we haven’t fed out for about 2-3 months now.

Spring brought dry conditions, which meant irrigation intervals were very close together to compensate for the lack of rainfall. By irrigating intensely, we achieved strong pasture growth and even generated a surplus of quality feed for conservation. This high-quality spring feed kept cows well-fed and milk production on target. We stuck to the fundamentals of pasture management. We maintained cover, protected residuals and monitored soil moisture. We also planned early to increase summer crop area in case rainfall didn’t arrive.

The dry late winter and first two-thirds of spring were beneficial for calving and rearing calves, with no changes needed to our herd system. Fodder conservation went well; we carried over 250 tons of maize silage and produced an additional 550 tons of pasture silage. This was thanks to the purchase of an irrigated runoff block last December, which has proven invaluable for feed security. While late spring rain delayed silage making and summer crop prep, we worked around it.

Looking ahead, we expect a hot summer but will manage heat stress through proactive drying off 80% of the herd in 2 weeks, keeping milkers close to the dairy with access to shade and water and monitoring young stock closely. Water security looks strong with a full dam and Avon River still unrestricted, though we anticipate restrictions soon.

We’ve planted 28 hectares of maize and 11 hectares of irrigated chicory to fill feed gaps. Seasonal variations reinforced the importance of planning multiple scenarios early; our advice to others is to stay vigilant and ready to act quickly.

Fertiliser and water management remained consistent, with adjustments based on soil tests for cost efficiency. We’ve invested in irrigation development, laser grading 6 hectares, adding a small pivot on the runoff block and planning another 12-hectare pivot for the milking platform when feasible to strengthen resilience for future seasons.

Victorian seasonal climate spring summary and summer outlook 

Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria, Seasonal Risk Agronomist

Spring 2025 review and summer 2026 outlook 

Spring delivered highly variable conditions across Victoria. Southern and Gippsland regions recorded above-average rainfall, with Wilsons Promontory reaching a record 474 mm for the season. In contrast, northern Victoria remained dry, leaving the state’s overall rainfall about 11% below the long-term average of 160 mm. Temperatures were slightly warmer than usual, with mean maximums at 19.8 °C and minimums at 7.9 °C. 

Climate drivers 

Several climate drivers shaped these patterns. A weak La Niña developed late in spring but is expected to fade by January. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole persisted but behaved atypically, reducing its usual wet influence. A negative Southern Annular Mode in October dried East Gippsland while pushing storm systems closer to the south west. These factors contributed to uneven rainfall distribution and soil moisture stress in many dairying areas. 

Summer outlook 

The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts no clear rainfall signal for summer, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average totals. However, warmer than average days and nights are likely across most of Victoria, increasing the risk of heat stress and bushfires. Soil moisture remains below average in many dairying regions, except for parts of Gippsland where late spring rains improved conditions. 

Source 1: BoM Long-range weather and climate (www.bom.gov.au/climate). Source 2: Agriculture Victoria Fast Break

Bessiebelle Permanent pasture, south west summary  

Entering summer, the Bessiebelle site was sitting at 58% plant available moisture after briefly reaching field capacity during 2 period in September and October. Despite >100mm for the month of November, soil moisture reserves have slowly decreased and reflect the high pasture growth that rainfall is almost meeting those plant water requirements.

For the 3 month outlook (December - February) at Bessiebelle, the BoM is forecasting 42% chance of exceeding median rainfall. The forecast has impacts for the summer growth and extension of the season and delay supplementary feeding. Soil temperatures are improving and are currently 15 degrees at 10cm and is 3 degrees lower than this time last year due to the wetter conditions.

For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Bessibelle site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit: extensionaus.com.au/soilmoisturemonitoring/Bessibelle-permanent-pasture/  

Longwarry pasture, West Gippsland 

Entering summer, the Longwarry site was at 100% plant available soil moisture. Moisture infiltration during November has been remarkable and is now at its wettest point for over 12 months. Pasture growth was already high during October due to optimum soil moisture in the top horizon but not being too wet. A 45% improvement in November and soil water infiltration can be observed to a depth below 50cm.

BoM rainfall forecast for the 3 months is forecasting a 39% chance of exceeding above median rainfall. For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Longwarry pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit: https://extensionaus.com.au/soilmoisturemonitoring/longwarry-chicory-2/

Terang pasture, south west 

Entering summer, the Terang site was at 100% plant available soil moisture. Moisture infiltration during winter has been high and field capacity was reached by July. That soil moisture status has been maintained for the past 5 months and over 200mm of rain has fallen during spring. Soil temperatures are improving and are currently 13 degrees at 10cm and is 3.5 degrees lower than this time last year due to the current wet conditions.

BoM rainfall forecast for the next 3 months is forecasting a 40% chance of exceeding above median rainfall. For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Terang pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit: https://extensionaus.com.au/soilmoisturemonitoring/Terang-permanent-pasture/

About Milking the Weather

The Milking the Weather newsletter provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry, 4 times per year (summer, autumn, winter and spring).

Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit author. To view a copy of this licence, visit creative commons.

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Disclaimer

This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.

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