| Volume 16, Issue 4: summer 2024 |
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| Welcome to the Milking the Weather e-Newsletter: summer 2024 |
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| Managing seasonal risk successfully |
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December 2024 farmer case studies
Sarah Clack, Agriculture Victoria Dairy Extension Officer
In the last week of spring and first week of summer, I caught up with Kevin and Jason Fitzsimmons from Merrigum in northern Victoria, Stephen and Jessica Knight from Stratford in Gippsland, and Craig Dwyer from Bullaharre in south-west Victoria.
This time around it’s 6 months since our last update with Kevin and Jason, and Stephen and Jessica, while it has been 12 months since our last update from Craig. So as part of hearing about what they’ve been up to since, we’ll also find out about how last winter and spring worked out for them and what management strategies they have planned for this summer and beyond.
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| Kevin and Jason Fitzsimmons, Merrigum, Northern Victoria |
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In May when I caught up with Kevin and Jason, they had an easy summer with rains reducing irrigation requirements followed by a dry autumn. Pastures were growing well, and temporary water prices were dropping late in the season. They had been developing the block they had recently acquired with upgrades to fencing and stock water system commenced. In late November I had a discussion with Kevin and Jason, and they shared the following:
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Slower pasture growth over winter
Winter turned out drier than what was predicted it would be, with a lot more frosts reducing pasture growth. The increased farm size, with the addition of the new block, allowed us to extend the grazing rotation to maintain the volume of pasture that the cows required. The cow’s diet was also supplemented with hay on the feedpad. With the extended drier and frosty conditions, we fed hay for a longer period. This reduced the amount of hay we were hoping to carry over.
We started irrigating as soon as the irrigation season opened. With one section (20 acres) of sub clover pasture we got caught out while still grazing, it then got too dry and resulted in decreased quality and halving our hay production on this area.
We have harvested 400 rolls of sub clover silage. Currently in the middle of our hay harvest, having harvested 1200 rolls with around another 200-300 rolls to be harvested of pasture hay.
This year we purchased 200 bales of oaten hay from a neighbour for the springer cows as part of their lead feed ration. We were able to cart them ourselves, which removed transport costs.
Hopefully this will be the only hay we need to buy in. We are trying to avoid the hay market if we can and be self-sufficient.
Vetch – a loss in one way but a win in another
The vetch we planted in the autumn was on the dryland area and it really suffered due to of lack of moisture. Our initial plan was to cut it for hay, but it was going backwards so we ended up cutting it early as silage. We got 580 rolls of silage off it but were hoping for 800 rolls of hay which is about half, in terms of dry matter.
A few weeks after we baled the vetch, we got 40 mm of rain. This led to some regrowth which the dry cows have been able to graze putting them in the best condition they have ever been. Being in such good condition we are on the watch for any calving issues and milk fever.
We may not have got the quantity of vetch off but we have been able to utilise the regrowth and there is still plenty over there, so we are going to run some beef cattle on it.
Easy on the cows
It was an easy winter for the cows with no mud. Their production was very good with no mastitis outbreaks or sore feet. The spring calving went well. We are rearing the most calves we ever have with 120 calves. We used sexed semen with beef semen used on the cattle we didn’t want to breed from. (Older cows, cross bred cows etc).
Milk production is up
Spring has seen plenty of good quality feed available. Milk production is up 15 to 20% up on this time last year with only 20 cows more than last year. The herd’s spring milk production peaked at 32 L per cow per day across the 3 different calving groups. At our last herd test in early November, we had about a dozen cows producing over 50 L per day and 3 over 60 L per day off grass and 6 kilograms of grain per cow per day. Normally we would average 25 L per cow per day across the herd at this time of year.
With such good quality feed, the fat and protein percentages in the milk inverted. Protein levels remained within normal range at 3.3 to 3.4% while fat percentage declined with the lowest test being 2.9%. Fat has now corrected and back to normal at 3.5%. We could have fed hay to increase fat percentage, but this would have reduced pasture intake and milk production. Overall, our solids production has been high. We have consulted with our nutritionist to see what options we may have in the future.
Fortifying calf milk
The inversion in the fat percentage has led us to fortify our milk fed to the calves with milk powder which we haven’t done before. The low-fat percentage resulted in reduced energy in the milk impacting calf growth rates. We tried upping the volume of milk fed but this didn’t really do anything, so we fortified the milk, and it turned them around within a week and back to expected growth rates.
Infrastructure on the new block
We have done a lot of development on the new block with fencing and laying the stock water line and troughs with another section still to do over summer, along with the new track to properly connect the 2 farms.
We have also completed some work on the old dairy to have working yards available for the young stock so they can remain separate from the main herd for health reasons. We have always separated them, but we can achieve this easily now.
Securing water for the season
We bought the new block without irrigation water. With the increase in irrigated land, we have gone from needing 500 to 600 ML per year to 1,000 ML per year. The owners of the block we lease have a 400 ML water right and have carried over 100 ML. They normally sell their water allocation on the temporary market. To meet our irrigation requirements this season we have purchased their 400 ML of water allocation and 100 ML of carry over water at the market price at the time the agreement was made. We have a staggered payment schedule rather than paying it out right which would be the case if we went into the temporary market assisting our cashflow. This has given us water security for the coming season.
Plans to get to 400 cows has changed
We had planned to increase the herd to 400 cows as part of the budget for the bank to purchase the new block, but we have achieved the production with a herd of 320 cows. Milking more cows could put us at the risk of not being self-sufficient and needing to buy in hay. We will still increase to probably 350 cows, which we will have by next autumn with the heifers coming in to the herd and we will reassess at the time. We don’t want to get into the situation where we need to buy in feed as we don’t think it is profitable for our business. Milk prices have come back this year and watching what is happening down south in the western district, it puts it into perspective how vulnerable you can be if you have to buy feed in. If we have a tough season we want to maintain self-sufficiency as best we can.
Plans for the beef cattle
We have 120 head of beef cattle plus 30 beef calves on hand to assist with managing pastures and cashflow flexibility. We have already sold a few beef cattle as they were ready for market and to assist with cashflow. We will be selling off another 60 head in the autumn to help with costs and reduce feed needs through winter. If it gets dry we can offload the beef cows but at the moment we have enough feed for everything.
Weather forecasts
The weather forecast back in autumn when we were sowing our pastures and crops was predicted to be wetter with talk of La Nina. This caused the water price to get down to $10 per ML. We made decisions not to buy water to carry over thinking there could be a possibility of a spill as has been the case the last 2 years, because dams were higher than they were historically for that time of year, but it has turned out the exact opposite. Water is now $110 per ML, and we could have bought it for $10. We made decisions on the information we had but the forecast didn’t come to fruition, which is disappointing.
Looking to summer
With talk of wetter than average conditions we are hedging our bets and trying to not have everything wet at once. With pipe and riser irrigation it is easier as we can water part of a section and not have to irrigate the whole section like we did in the past with the old channel system. All our recycle dams are linked together so we can move water all around the farm. Hopefully, if we get a big dump of rain, we can manage it and take advantage.
The coming autumn
We have 115 hectares of perennial pastures and will renovate as per our normal pasture rotation in the autumn.
We plan to have our annual and sub pastures irrigated up in early March to have feed for the dairy herd well in advance before winter kicks in. The new block is 70% annual pastures, if an early autumn break does happen and strikes, we have secured our water to keep it going, rather than irrigating it from scratch.
On the out block we are thinking at this stage to go with a mix of vetch and wheat and have a section of oats.
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| Stephen and Jessica Knight, Stratford, Gippsland Victoria |
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In early June when I caught up with Stephen and Jessica, they had a wet start to summer delaying hay making and reducing irrigation requirements. Conditions dried up mid-January and continued to be dry with irrigation supporting pasture production while dry land areas were moisture stressed. The dry autumn provided good conditions for making milk and calving cows. I caught up with Stephen and Jessica in early December and they shared the following:
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A dry winter
Winter conditions were drier than the last 3 or 4 years. We kept the rotation length out, did not overgraze paddocks, protected pastures from pugging and kept nitrogen up.
Gypsum and fertiliser
Over winter we applied gypsum across the whole milking area as a soil conditioner to try to unlock a few tied up macronutrients. This probably paid big dividends in spring.
A windy September
We started watering earlier than other years at the start of September. Getting the water on to maintain the soil moisture profile. September was really windy and by mid-September we were down to 10-to-12-day irrigation intervals to try keep the soil moisture profile full. These irrigations may have been slightly closer than ideal but being river diverters irrigating on a roster system and with the potential for river flows to change rapidly we would prefer to irrigate earlier than ideal than be caught out.
We got a little amount of rain with storms, but the wind would just dry everything out, and the next day it was like we had not even had any rain.
Dryland pastures finished in September. Neighbour’s dryland area had one cut of silage, and it didn’t regrow. As we are running so many replacements, we deliberately don’t chase silage too hard on the dryland. A couple of paddocks were able to be harvested for silage, but we would prefer to leave it for the replacements.
One tonne of fodder per cow
Spring pasture growth was good, and we started silage making early. At the start of harvest, we had 100 tonnes of hay on hand. We have harvested 400 tonnes of pasture silage and opportunistically purchased 50 tonnes. This meets the one tonne per cow of fodder we aim to have on hand.
A dry start to November
Conditions were getting nasty at the start of November with reduced flows on the Avon River. In the 2019 drought it was November when they cut off irrigation from the river and we didn’t get any more water until May the next year. It was looking similar this year and as if it might be a long summer, so we pulled the trigger and planted 40 hectares of millet to utilise the water we had in the dam reserve. The millet will be utilised for young stock. We also booked in loads of hay.
Since then, there have been a few storms in the hills increasing river flows. We are feeling comfortable now, we have 6 weeks until drying cows off the autumn calving cows, which make up 50% of the herd, and grazing pressure comes off and we can focus on gearing up for the autumn.
The cow’s diet
Weather conditions were good for calving cows and animal health. Over winter, we fed the herd 4 to 5 kilograms of silage per cow per day in addition to 8 kilograms of grain and pasture to maintain rotation length and protect pastures. In early August, we stopped feeding silage with pasture and grain remaining at 8 kilograms per cow per day. Even though milk price has come back, all our modelling showed it paid to feed the higher level of grain and keep stocking rate up.
Production is floating around 2.1 to 2.2 kg milk solids per cow per day with half of them only having 6 weeks before drying off. Body condition is good, animal health is good with mastitis levels at the lowest ever. The spring calving was easy with good calf health following. We currently have 554 cows in the herd which equates to 4.6 cows per hectare.
We added in an extra kilogram of corn into the heifer’s diet to assist them maintain condition leading into joining as they were shedding a little more weight than we would like after calving. This has had a good result, and we will continue to feed until mid-January when the autumn cows will be dried off.
Splitting the herd into two
We have split the herd into two, one with fresh spring calved cows and the other with the autumn calved cows, and they just seem happier. It is currently working well with staff and joining management as all cows are being joined at once. There have been animal health benefits with less time standing on concrete at the dairy reducing lameness, and more access to shade and shelter in the paddock.
The pressure on the tracks has reduced with the cows coming up to the dairy on different tracks especially in wet conditions. The farm layout allows one herd to be milked and released back to the paddock unrestricted while we bring the other herd up to the dairy. The two herds also move at different paces with the fresh cows storming to the dairy quicker and the later lactation cows wanting to waddle up nice and slow. We were hesitant but it has been a game changer.
New calf shed
We have built a new calf shed with capacity for 160 calves. This calving we kept calves in the shed until 12 weeks and weaned them in the shed before putting them out on pasture. The weights at weaning were phenomenal and there were no set back when they were weaned. Prior to the new shed we didn’t have enough capacity to house all calves until after they were weaned. Previously we had the calves in the shed for 6 to 8 weeks, due to shed capacity, before putting them in the paddock and feeding them until 10 to 12 weeks with a trailing feeder. Also, we had some really awful weather this spring and it was really nice knowing that they were in the shed, happy and safe.
We found the calves were more content in the shed with no bellowing when you went to the shed in the morning. We were topping up grain and hay twice to 3 times a day making sure they have all the feed there. We find in the paddock they munch on the grass, but it isn’t filling them as much.
Vaccinations and drenching
With the humid weather we have ensured all the young stock are vaccinated and drenched. A concern coming into this season is pink eye with the humid weather and we are unable to get the Piliguard vaccine for pink eye prevention. We have had really good success with the vaccine in previous seasons. We are utilising backline fly treatments to minimise risk.
Increased milking area
At the end of August, we lost a dryland lease block and straight away took over the lease on another 70-hectare irrigated block adjoining our farm with 35 hectares under a pivot. The area under the pivot will be incorporated into the milking platform with existing farm laneway having been extended and paddocks refenced to match into the laneway system.
Securing irrigated land for fodder production
In the last week we have managed to buy a 100-hectare property 4 kilometres from the home farm in the Macalister Irrigation District (MID). The farm was a vegetable farm with 2 large centre pivots supplied straight off the pipeline. The property will be used for young stock and fodder production.
The pivots are currently sown to perennial ryegrass. One pivot will be cut for silage this week and the other we will cut for hay. The pivot cut for silage will be sown to 20 hectares of short rotation maize crop this summer for silage production before being sown to an Italian ryegrass in the autumn. All fodder on this block will continue to be cut and carried until it is fenced. After securing the purchase of this block the loads of hay ordered were cancelled as they became surplus to requirements.
Developing the new land
There are currently no fences on the farm giving us the opportunity to start from scratch and fence paddocks in uniformed sizes. As the property is in a floodplain, and when it floods it really floods, we will take this into account when selecting fencing materials we use and orientation.
There are not many trees on the property to provide shelter for stock. Every year we plant around 200 trees on farm in shelter belts for cow comfort or along drainage lines to slow water flow and minimising erosion. This year we will be focusing these plantings on the new farm.
I already sleep better knowing the block is there as it will be such an engine room and if we get pinched it will complement what we are doing at the home farm. Ordering water and understanding the irrigation system will be a learning experience as we’ve never had to order water before. We managed a farm in the MID for 8 years, but water ordering wasn’t one of our roles.
Increasing cow numbers
With the purchase of the new block in the MID and the new irrigated lease block, we will increase cow numbers to 700 to 750 cows by autumn. With this, we will be chasing another 100 to 150 tonne of silage which we should get off the new block. The maize should yield an additional 350 to 400 tonnes so we should be floating at 800 to 900 tonnes of feed on hand in April.
As cow numbers increase, we will maintain the split herds as the time the cows spend standing on concrete at the dairy will increase.
Increasing flexibility of pasture sowing
We have updated our old seed drill to a newer one a few months ago as a pasture management tool to maximise the timing of sowing, as it is everything in our system. We have enough staff so we can be either fully sowing or oversowing paddocks. There were too many times when we knew rain was coming and we needed to get something in to catch the rain, but we were unable to get the contractor here in time.
When we first moved here, we did everything ourselves. As we grew, we utilised contractors because it was too big for us. The business has grown again, and we have staff numbers to be able to start sowing our own pastures again. It is a one percenter, but it all adds up to chasing pasture harvest wherever we can, improving density and longevity of swards and catching rainfall events.
This coming autumn
We would like to think we can start dropping paddocks out in late February to begin oversowing and carry our 250 ML irrigation storage dam over the summer to start the autumn pastures if there isn’t irrigation water available.
After the last 10 days of rain and with rain forecast in the next 10 days, we are in a good place again.
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| Craig Dwyer, Bullaharre, South West Victoria |
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We last spoke to Craig 12 months ago. Works to the new block were underway with cow numbers set to increase from 310 to 330 cows in the coming season. The drier winter resulted in less pasture renovation required. In early December I had a discussion with Craig about the last 6 months and he shared the following:
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Pasture renovations
With a milder winter in 2023 we didn’t have as much renovation on the existing home block. We renovated the new block to improve the swards as it was used as an out paddock before we purchased it, and we have included it into the milking platform.
A welcome break
Our autumn was reasonably dry. We didn’t get the break until Easter with a rainfall event on Easter Sunday and Monday providing 55 mm which got our pasture away.
Good growing weather but poor runoff
Pasture production has been good after a nervous mid-year. Winter growth was okay with a dry August. We were looking for rain in late July and August to finish our silage crops. We got rain the nick of time to get us through.
We were feeding silage reserves in winter due to the dry conditions with fresh cows coming in. Over the year we exhausted our fodder reserves and needed to source milker quality hay, which we filled with vetch hay. We only had 40 rolls of dry cow hay on hand coming into September.
Keeping inputs up
Over the season we never put the fertiliser spreader away, we didn’t skimp on anything which has kept us in the game and taking advantage of rainfall events. We didn’t alter our inputs and kept the place ticking over which served us pretty well. The dry conditions allowed access all areas of the farm where in previous years we have needed to utilise a helicopter for fertiliser applications.
Lime was applied at 1 tonne per acre on the new block and has assisted to reduce the available aluminium. We will continue our maintenance application of lime to 20% of the farm each year going forward.
Good quality silage
Silage cuts have been as good as any other year if not slightly better as our silage quality is great which has been handy. We finished our hay harvest in late November, which is one of the earliest times I remember us finishing harvest. We got our target of 3 bales of silage per cow, and as for hay we have harvested what we hoped for and hope it will be enough for the autumn to come. We have been following the harvest with fertiliser to aid regrowth. From now on in I would like an inch a week to keep things going.
Silage quality is great, but the flip side is we have just started feeding out selectively depending on which paddock the cows are going into. We would endeavour to not be feeding out until just after Christmas, that would be a normal year. The quality has been there, but the pasture may not hang on quite as long with the rain slowing down.
As we are feeding 3 weeks earlier than we like to we will probably look to the hay market late this year or early next year and stick into the hayshed as I prefer to be looking at hay rather than looking for it. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. With croppers harvesting frosted cereal crops we hope we can take advantage of their unfortunate season.
Cow production is flying along
The cows are flying along with production per cow the same as last year. We are about 80 days from drying the first cows off with calving to start around ANZAC day. Herd numbers have increased from 310 cows last season to 330 cows this season.
This year was the first with the new block included in the milking platform. With the dry conditions this year we haven’t been able to identify where the wet spots on the block are. This has been beneficial as we have been able to cut everything we have hoped for and get back on it quickly but we haven’t had a learning year on it yet so we will keep cow numbers as they are for next season.
Calves
We drenched all the 6 to 8 month-old calves. We have identified those who we will need to give some extra attention to get them to joining weights.
The pregnant heifers are being pregnancy tested next week and anyone who is empty at that point in time will be sold to make the most of the feed that is available. We have done a fixed time AI followed by jersey bulls. We have about a dozen more than we need so if they are not in calf they will be sold.
Water is a concern
We only have 75 to 80% of the water I would like on hand for stock water and dairy wash down. On the 10th of July we were in the bottom of a dam cleaning it out. This is something you shouldn’t be doing on the 10th of July. We got runoff by the 22nd of September and the creeks only ran for around a month which isn’t good. Feed isn’t our biggest concern this season, stock water is.
Summer forages
Eighteen hectares of tired pasture in need a full renovation this coming autumn have been sown to a rape crop and clover. We will be irrigating this crop with effluent and applying urea application if we get a rainfall event to keep the rape crop going to feed the herd.
The new block is up and running
Works on the new block are complete with all fencing, tracks and troughs installed generating paddocks about 10 paddocks of 4 to 5 hectares across the 50-hectare block.
We hit the new block hard with fertiliser to get fertility up to where we would like it. Soil tests will be completed in February to have results back for fertiliser March application.
Being water wise
With water levels below where we would like them, we will be very, very water wise this season. The new block was 6 paddocks with 6 dams. A lot of the dams are “swallow holes”, they aren’t anything substantial. We will utilise them first before they evaporate then get back on to our main dams, which are at 75 to 80% capacity, later on. I would love to get one of those storms which give you 3 inches in an hour, and we will probably fill up instantly. We will take this opportunity to clean out a few more dams at the end of summer to remove silt and restore the dam capacity.
The season ahead
We are hoping for a wet December which I will take any time. I would like February to dry off as I don’t want to be too wet leading into winter and that happened in 2022, and it doesn’t go well.
We didn’t get ridiculously wet over winter, so we won’t have a large area to fully renovate. We have identified the areas which will require a full renovation to plant the rape crop. We will identify the paddocks which will require an oversow early in the new year.
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| Victorian seasonal climate summary (spring 2024) and outlook (summer 2024) in brief |
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Total spring rainfall was 149.2 mm this is 18% below the 1961-1990 average.
- Victoria’s spring rainfall total was below average for large parts of the south, west and east of Victoria, and very much below average (in the lowest 10% of all springs since 1900) for the far east.
- Gama (Near Lascelles, Northwest) recorded it highest daily spring rainfall at 58 mm.
- Boort (Northwest) recorded its highest daily spring rainfall at 75.8 mm.
- Total area averaged rainfall for Victoria in September and October was 32.9% and 32.8% which was below the 1961-1990 average respectively. In November rainfall was 14 % above the 1961–1990 average, however the majority of this rain fell in the last week of November.
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Victoria’s area-averaged mean maximum temperature was 21.4°C and 1.96°C above the long-term average. The area-averaged mean minimum temperature was 8.8°C and 1.23 °C above the long-term average.
- Much of the state recorded very much above average mean maximum temperatures for spring. This was recorded statewide except for the far southwest.
- Mean minimum temperatures varied, most sites recorded above average, very much above average (in the highest 10% of all springs since 1910) for the south and reaching the highest on record for parts of the Central district and the east of the Southwest district.
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Most models predicted a warmer spring, which eventuated, with a split between greater chance of wetter or a neutral forecast for spring rainfall (equal chances of wetter, average or drier). The majority of the state turned out to be drier.
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Currently climate models are split between the formation of a La Niña this summer or not. The central equatorial Pacific warmed in recent weeks to normal temperatures, away from the La Niña threshold, although they are still cooler than the historical average. The Pacific Ocean atmosphere is behaving in a La Niña fashion, with less cloud at the dateline, a positive Southern Oscillation Index and stronger easterly trade winds blowing into Papua New Guinea. The BoM warns that significant global warming of oceans over the past 50 years may impact future ENSO events differently compared to the historic patterns.
- The eastern Indian Ocean surface is predicted to be warmer but a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole phase. The atmosphere however is behaving as a strong negative IOD, with stronger westerly winds, lower pressure and greater cloud off Sumatra. The water off the Kimberley coast is a record warm temperature.
- Warmer oceans exist to the north of Australia with atmospheric conditions driving further warming, greater cloud and moisture. The right weather system passing across Victoria will be capable of tapping into this source.
- An assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria is split between increased chances of being wetter and neutral (i.e. plan for anything). Models are also indicating temperatures are likely to be warmer over the same period.
- The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently weakly negative and predicted to slowly return to neutral over the last half of December. A negative SAM in summer can decrease moisture flow into the eastern half of Victoria. With the seasonal uncertainty that has abounded this year and likely over summer, make important decisions on known knowns, soil moisture, feed availability, fodder/grain/water reserves rather than hoping climate models come through with the goods.
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| Victorian dairying areas seasonal soil moisture condition assessment |
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| 2024 spring review and summer update |
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Richard Smith and Michele Jolliffe, Agriculture Victoria
Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture probes on dryland sites greatly assist farmers with making early decisions related to crop and pasture management in the cropping, meat and wool grazing, and dairying industries.
Currently there are 30 probes installed on a range of soil and pasture types across Victoria in dryland sites. Three of the new sites are located on dairy farms in Bessibelle (south-west Victoria), Koorooman and Foster (south Gippsland).
Pictured: Telemetry at Jack River soil moisture monitoring site guarded with stock protective fencing.
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The installed probes measure adjacent soil moisture at each of these 30 monitoring sites and are best described as capacitance types. They are are 80 centimetres long with 8 internal sensors to provide soil water content values and temperature every 10 centimetres. Sites are best assessed individually as the different soil types means they can not be directly compared to others. Also, these probes are useful in showing total soil moisture levels from estimated plant available water and relative movement/use of moisture down the profile.
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A monthly analysis of all monitoring sites is produced by Agriculture Victoria as an enewsletter.
A live interactive Soil Moisture Monitoring Dashboard can be found here.
In this article, we feature the Koorooman, Foster and Terang site’s (marked with a tick) through a detailed update on the key recent soil moisture level observations from winter as well as relevant future insights for this spring.
Below - map image of front page of the soil moisture monitoring dashboard.
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| BESSIEBELLE PERMANENT PASTURE, SOUTHWEST SUMMARY |
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Entering spring, the Bessiebelle site was sitting at 73%. Rainfall for the season was mixed with a total of 195mm (rainfall from 30 November not included in total), with the highest falls occurring in September with 99mm. Rainfall during September was higher than long term average. Due to the good rainfall in September, soil moisture slowly increased, however the winds and lower rainfall in the next 2 months saw moisture levels decrease. Entering summer, the site sat at 48% summed soil moisture.
For the 3 month outlook (December to February) at Bessibelle the BOM is forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures above median with a likelihood above 86%. The site is predicated to experience unusually high maximum temperatures. BOM rainfall forecast indicates 58% chance of exceding median rainfall in December, with January showing normal rainfall. The main risk is the forecasted of higher temperatures and average rainfall could result in continued depletion of soil moisture, potentially reducing total pasture growth, and continuing to impact water availablility.
For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Bessibelle site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, click here.
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Moisture Speedo for Bessiebelle probe (4 December 2024).
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| JANCOURT PERMANENT PASTURE, SOUTHWEST, SUMMARY |
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Jancourt was typical of those in south west, with the site entering spring with a soil moisture at 57%. Rainfall for the season was 152mm (rainfall from 30 November not included in total) with the highest falls occuring in September with 82mm. The rainfall during September improved soil moisture that peaked at 100%. This diminished during October into November as soil tempertures and day time temperature combined, to initiate plant growth. Entering summer, soil moisture is sitting at 30%.
The rain in early spring saw pastures show good growth however this was tempered in part by wind and temperatures. Although the rainfall supported silage harvest and storage in most areas crop growth remained constrained as rainfall didn’t meet plant water demands and soil moisture was depleted in October and November.
For the 3 month outlook (December to Feburary) at Jancourt the BOM is forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures above median with a likelihood above 85%. BOM rainfall forecast indicates 60% change of exceding median rainfall in December, with January showing normal rainfall.
For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Jancourt pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, click here.
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Moisture Speedo for Jancourt permanent pasture probe (4 December 2024).
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| YARRAM PASTURE, SOUTH GIPPSLAND, SUMMARY |
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Entering spring, the Yarram site was at 86% total soil moisture. Rainfall for the season was mixed with 174mm. Rainfall on the site was below the long-term average across the 3 months. Soil moisture rapidly decreased from mid October till late November as rainfall eased and average temperatures increased and plant water usage increased.
Entering spring, pasture was still showing good growth due to rainfall and subsoil moisture. Silage production picked up with farmers able to make multiple cuts, and produce good quality. Higher daytime temperatures combined with low rainfall did impact the growth of crops in the area and resulted in soil moisture decline. However, the showers did maintain the quality of these crops and allowed hay production to occur.
For the seasonal outlook for December to Feburary at Yarram, the BoM is forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures of above median with a likelihood above 90%. BoM rainfall forecast for the 3 months is predicating an above median rainfall, with December likely to have best change of above average rainfall. Pasture growth is currently being supported by soil moisture reserves, however the higher than average tempertures forecast combined with wind, could see rapid drawdown of soil moisture.
For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Yarram pasture site in Agriculutre Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, click here.
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Moisture Speedo for Yarram pasture probe (4 December 2024).
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| Current relevant and useful climate links |
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Visit Agriculture Victoria’s The Break Newsletters’ page for regular and latest updates on oceanic and atmospheric climate driver activity, summaries of model predictions for rainfall and temperature forecasts in Victoria. While you are there you might like to subscribe to the monthly break e-newsletter if you are not already receiving it.
Below is a comprehensive list of useful website that cover a range of climate related information on past conditions, climate industry and driver maps, as well as educational products.
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My Climate View is a digital information product that provides Australian farmers with tailored insights into their changing climate to help inform decision-making and build their climate and drought resilience into the future.
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Climate Analogues is a web application that displays three locations and their respective climates, each of which has a similar climate today as a location defined by what the user could have in the future.
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| Receiving Milking the Weather |
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The Milking the Weather newsletter provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry, 4 times per year (summer, autumn, winter and spring).
Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.
To subscribe to the Milking the Weather e-newsletter, click here.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit author. To view a copy of this licence, visit creative commons.
Accessibility:
If you would like to receive this publication in an alternative format please telephone the Customer Service Centre on 136 186, or via the National Relay Service on 133 677 www.relayservice.com.au.
Disclaimer:
This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.
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To provide feedback on the newsletter, request the latest edition in PDF format, or for assistance to subscribe/unsubscribe, please contact: Bec Cameron on bec.cameron@agriculture.vic.gov.au
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