At the core of the budget Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered last night is a really simple proposition: the best way to lower inflation is to lower prices, especially rent and energy bills.
He’s more than happy to spend money to do it – particularly given the pitifully weak condition of the economy.
As former Finance Department Deputy Secretary Stephen Bartos writes, after two budgets in which Chalmers banked nearly all the extra revenue that flowed from strong employment growth and high iron ore prices, this year he has reversed course.
Over the next four financial years Chalmers expects to take in $2 billion more than was forecast in the December budget update.
He plans to spend it all, and then some: an extra $24.2 billion. Even with that, former Reserve Bank and Treasury economist John Hawkins says Australia’s economy and the global economic situation are looking weak.
We will need that boost from the revamped Stage 3 tax cuts due to hit our pay packets in June, and also the energy price relief and increased rent assistance that will arrive at about the same time, bringing down prices and taking half a percentage point off inflation.
Michelle Grattan points out much will depend on the reaction of the Reserve Bank. If the Treasurer’s forecasts come to pass and his measures do bring inflation back to within the Reserve Bank’s target band, it should feel compelled to grant the government a pre-election rate cut.
This means that what the bank thinks of the budget will be almost as important as what the average voter thinks of it.
For more on the main cuts and spends, check out our interactive guide to the budget. And stay tuned during the week for more in-depth coverage and reaction from our expert authors.
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Peter Martin
Economics Editor
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Stephen Bartos, University of Canberra
This budget contains not only foreshadowed tax cuts, but a range of new spending measures in health, education, infrastructure and aged care.
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John Hawkins, University of Canberra
If the Reserve Bank is genuinely prepared to cut interest rates as inflation moves back towards its target, we can expect a rate cut within the year.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
The treasurer has juggled the economics and the politics by going big on spending while keeping a firm eye on inflation.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
A $300 energy rebate and an increase in rent assistance headline Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third budget.
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Matt Garrow, The Conversation; Erin Cooper-Douglas, The Conversation
Which departments are the biggest winners and losers in this year’s budget? We’ve broken the budget documents down to show you where the money’s going - and where it isn’t.
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Timothy Neal, UNSW Sydney
What’s in the budget for the environment? Lots for green industry, little for conservation
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Peter Greste, Macquarie University
It is hard to overstate the impact this case is likely to have on future whistleblowing in Australia.
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Brendan Walker-Munro, Southern Cross University
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Rebecca Trelease, Auckland University of Technology
With Bridgerton’s season three set to sweep us off our feet yet again, let’s take a look at how executive producer Shonda Rhimes pulls it off.
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Linda Gallo, University of the Sunshine Coast; Shelley Wilkinson, The University of Queensland
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Astrid Edwards, The University of Melbourne
In Splinters, Leslie Jamison confronts the expectations placed on women, especially mothers – including the dangers of making art, and being more successful at it than the man in their life.
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Samuel Chalmers, University of South Australia; Orlando Laitano, University of Florida
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Health + Medicine
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Michelle O'Shea, Western Sydney University; Hannah Adler, Griffith University; Marilla L. Druitt, Deakin University; Mike Armour, Western Sydney University
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Science + Technology
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Brett Carter, RMIT University; Hannah Schunker, University of Newcastle
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Arts + Culture
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Susan Broomhall, Australian Catholic University; Carolyn James, Monash University
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The Conversation AU
Melbourne VIC, Australia
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The Conversation AU
Melbourne VIC, Australia
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Full Time
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