Australians are used to living in a land of extremes. This month it was New South Wales’ turn, when colossal rains inundated the state. But as Earth hurtles towards a temperature rise of 3℃ this century, how much worse will it get?

A group of eminent Australian scientists has examined that question. And the answer, quite frankly, is terrifying.

Global sea levels would rise up to 80 centimetres, drowning much of our coastline. Yields of key crops would fall by between 5% and 50%. Heatwaves in Queensland would happen up to seven times a year, lasting an average 16 days. And of course, the Great Barrier Reef would no longer exist.

As Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and Lesley Hughes write today, this is not an imaginary future dystopia. It’s a scientific projection based on our current emissions trajectory – a vision of Australia we must both strenuously try to avoid, but also prepare for.

Other important research released today reveals the toll climate change and other threats are already wreaking on our precious wild places. As Albert Van Dijk and his colleagues write, Australia’s environmental health last year scored an appalling 3 out of 10, based on a suite of indicators such as river flows, soil health and tree cover. Check out the interactive graphic to see how your region fared.

Amid the depressing news, however, there’s reason to hope. As our experts remind us, with urgent action and some luck, there is still much we can salvage.

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