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Editor's note
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When analysts at the Grattan Institute set out to calculate the damage the coronavirus lockdowns could do to the jobs market, they expected something bad. But nothing as bad as what they got. In order to triple-check their work they calculated it three different ways.
Their headline finding is that between a sixth and a quarter of Australia’s workforce is likely to be out of work because of the coronavirus shutdown over the next three months.
As shocking as that finding is, it appears to line up with the government’s internal calculations.
When it introduced its coronavirus supplement, it budgeted for an extra one million Australians on welfare. When it introduced the JobKeeper payment, it budgeted on an extra six million Australians being paid to remain in work.
Because newly-idle workers on JobKeeper will still get a salary they won’t be counted as unemployed, and because many of those who do find themselves unemployed will decide not to bother looking for work (to “retire” or refocus on domestic duties) the official unemployment rate won’t climb as high as 25%.
The charts prepared by the Grattan Institute show a peak of 10% to 15%.
Leavening the bad news is a finding by Francis Markham that the coronavirus supplement will constitute the biggest improvement in Indigenous incomes since the equal pay decisions of the late 1960s and 1970s. It’ll be the first time in a long time the bulk of remote Indigenous Australia has been above the poverty line.
Anyone wanting an early end to the lockdowns and economic damage will get no support from the 118 leading economists who have signed today’s open letter to the prime minister.
They argue callous indifference to life is morally objectionable, and that it would be a mistake to loosen the restrictions for the sake of “the economy”.
“It is wishful thinking to believe we face a choice between a buoyant economy without social distancing and a deep recession with social distancing,” they write.
“The best we can do is limit the spread as much as practicable and rely on the strength of the government’s balance sheet to cushion the impact on the workers and businesses hardest hit.”
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Peter Martin
Section Editor, Business and Economy
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Top story
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Shutterstock
Brendan Coates, Grattan Institute; Matthew Cowgill, Grattan Institute; Tony Chen, Grattan Institute; Will Mackey, Grattan Institute
Grattan institute estimates suggest that up to 26% of the workforce -- 3.4 million Australians -- are likely be thrown out of work as a direct result of the shutdown.
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Dean Lewins/AAP
Steven Hamilton, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University; Bruce Preston, University of Melbourne; Chris Edmond, University of Melbourne; Richard Holden, UNSW
Leading Australian economists in four countries have signed an open letter calling on the national cabinet to think carefully before easing restrictions 'for the sake of 'the economy'.
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Bianca De Marchi/AAP
Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Malcolm Turnbull's publisher was in a stoush at the weekend with Scott Morrison's office over its leaking of the former prime minister's autobiography, A Bigger Picture.
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Shutterstock
Francis Markham, Australian National University
The Coronavirus Supplement will boost the total income of very remote Indigenous Australai by one quarter.
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Arts + Culture
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Lindsay Kelley, UNSW
Anzacs biscuits are the perfect treat to bake in COVID-19 isolation. Recipes emerged from another world-changing crisis, the first world war, yet we can still bake together online.
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Donna Lee Brien, CQUniversity Australia
Humans have been pickling for at least 4,000 years. Maybe it's time you tried?
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Health + Medicine
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Katherine Gibney, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity; Jodie McVernon, University of Melbourne
Scott Morrison said it will be at least four weeks before any of the current restrictions are eased. There are a few boxes we want to tick before we can start to take a foot off the pedal.
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Trent Yarwood, The University of Queensland
The latest Doherty Institute modelling also indicates the spectre of 'unidentified community transmission' is very unlikely indeed.
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Sunanda Creagh, The Conversation; Phoebe Roth, The Conversation; Sophia Morris, The Conversation
Once you get older, the focus moves to trying not to lose your muscle tissue. So as you age, your protein requirements actually start to go up.
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Haydar Demirhan, RMIT University
Don't just tell us how many new cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed, tell us how many people you tested as well. That helps us to know if things are getting better or worse.
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Business + Economy
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Martin Berka, Massey University
On Monday, New Zealand will announce if it's ready to relax some of its COVID-19 restrictions – among the strictest in the world. Based on international and local data, I argue it's time; here's why.
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Stephen Fankhauser, Swinburne University of Technology; Matt Ebbatson, Swinburne University of Technology
The federal government's dilemma is whether it is better to bail out Virgin Australia or allow commercial forces to rule, as it has done in the past.
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Education
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Alison Willis, University of the Sunshine Coast
There's more to learning than content. As long as kids maintain the essential literacy, numeracy and social skills, they will be well placed to pick up content they may have missed later.
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Claire Brown, Victoria University; Rannah Scamporlino, Victoria University
Schools are online and many students may find this new learning environment challenging. But organising your time and taking effective notes can help students learn better.
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Claire Hooker, University of Sydney
People show decreased cognitive processing in high concern situations. Effective communication needs to respectfully address concerns, and build trust, otherwise information may be rejected.
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Politics + Society
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Carol Johnson, University of Adelaide
Rather than the absence of ideology, Liberals may be reverting to earlier forms of social liberalism that emphasise the common interests between labour and capital.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
The government has told the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to develop a mandatory code of conduct to address bargaining power imbalances between media companies and digital platforms such as Facebook and Google
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Michelle Grattan talks with Assistant Professor Caroline Fisher (remotely) about the week in politics.
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Mary Anne Kenny, Murdoch University
The court has found the youngest child, Tharunicca, was denied procedural fairness, which means the case against their deportation will continue.
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Caroline Fisher, University of Canberra; Sora Park, University of Canberra; Terry Flew, Queensland University of Technology
A new survey found the reputation of the news brand and journalists matters when it comes to public trust in media. Employing more journalists and being more active on social media doesn't.
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Cities
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Rachel Ong ViforJ, Curtin University
Australians faces an even more unequal future unless post-pandemic housing policy focuses on equity, solidarity and security. .
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Science + Technology
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Ian Hesketh, The University of Queensland
Understanding that germs can cause illness was an important step in learning how to stop the spread of disease
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Margarietha de Villiers Scheepers, University of the Sunshine Coast; Martie-Louise Verreynne, RMIT University
Alongside an impending global financial crisis akin to the Great Depression, Apple has announced its newest smartphone.
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Environment + Energy
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Joseph Schubert, Museums Victoria
"I arrived in Perth and bought a foam mattress for the back of my car – my bed for half of the trip. I stocked up on tinned food, and I headed north in search of these tiny eight-legged gems."
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Daniel Connell, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
There's little transparency or clarity about how much water states are allocated. This failure in communication and leadership across such a vital system must change.
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Featured jobs
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— Canberra ACT, Australia
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