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Modelling is delivering mixed news to people locked down in Sydney, and especially those in the local government areas of concern who have been staying at home since late June.
Modelling by the Burnet Institute shows the latest round of restrictions imposed in those hotspots three weeks ago are working. Case numbers in these LGAs have plateaued at around 1,000 a day.
Without the curfew and additional restrictions imposed at the end of August, daily case numbers would be around 2,000 a day now, and 4,000 a day by the end of the month.
But that doesn’t mean freedom without restrictions any time soon.
In separate modelling, Raina MacIntyre and her team caution against lifting too many restrictions too soon, given vaccination can’t be our only defence against COVID-19.
In the worst-case scenario, she writes, opening up at 70-80% – while easing mask restrictions and without improving contact tracing – could result in a second peak around Christmas, with hospitals overwhelmed.
As MacIntyre explains, if you remove restrictions on movement, you need to add other public health measures to keep the virus in check.
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Fron Jackson-Webb
Deputy Editor/Senior Health + Medicine Editor
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Joel Carrett/AAP
C Raina MacIntyre, UNSW
An 80% adult vaccination rate corresponds to 64% of the overall population, leaving plenty of people susceptible to the virus if restrictions ease too quickly.
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Joel Carrett/AAP
Allan Saul, Burnet Institute; Brendan Crabb, Burnet Institute; Mark Stoové, Burnet Institute
The curfew and other tougher restrictions imposed on the 12 Sydney local government areas of concern have cut the expected COVID cases numbers by half so far.
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Dave Hunt/AAP
Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Multiple doctors’ organisations, led by the Australian Medical Association, and a major farm lobby have called on the federal government to boost Australia’s climate change ambition.
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Lukas Coch/AAP
Cheryl Saunders, The University of Melbourne
In an open democracy, there is no rationale for withholding information about National Cabinet’s decisions or any documents these decisions are based on.
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Shutterstock
Paul Haskell-Dowland, Edith Cowan University; Bogdan Ghita, University of Plymouth
IP addresses serve a similar function to postal addresses. Postal addresses allow our mail to circulate, while IP addresses allow network traffic to move around the internet.
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Shutterstock
Linda J. Graham, Queensland University of Technology; Callula Killingly, Queensland University of Technology; Kristin R. Laurens, Queensland University of Technology; Naomi Sweller, Macquarie University
Analysis shows most suspensions in SA in 2019 were given to Indigenous students with a disability, followed by children with a disability living in care. These children need support, not dismissal.
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Arts + Culture
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Julian Droogan, Macquarie University; Malcolm Choat, Macquarie University
From 1996 to 2001, the Taliban outlawed almost all forms of art while looting and destroying museums. With their resurgence, Australia must strengthen measures to stop trafficking of antiquities.
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Julian Novitz, Swinburne University of Technology
Literary author Salman Rushdie is publishing his new novella on newsletter subscription platform Substack - sparking conversations about the challenges and potential the platform offers publishing.
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Education
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Emma F. Jackson, Macquarie University; Jonathan David, Macquarie University; Melissa Norberg, Macquarie University; Veronica Sheanoda, Macquarie University
Proposed changes to the law will prevent schools from providing appropriate support for transgender and gender-diverse young people. These changes could increase their already high risks of harm.
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Business + Economy
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Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Until this year it looked as if Australia could have its cake and eat it too — low deaths form COVID and a resilient economy.
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Andrew Schmulow, University of Wollongong
The implosion of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, has gone from tragedy to farce.
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Health + Medicine
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Erin Smith, Edith Cowan University
There’s evidence that people who have been through multiple disasters experience poorer mental and physical health compared to people who have been exposed to a single disaster.
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Politics + Society
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Tim Dare, University of Auckland; Justine Kingsbury, University of Waikato
If a vaccination certificate becomes mandatory for work and other activities, does that mean vaccination is effectively mandatory too?
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Michelle Grattan discusses politics with politics + society editor, Amanda Dunn
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Bronwyn Carlson, Macquarie University
The recent Women’s Safety Summit highlighted Australia’s problem with gender-based violence. However, violence experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women is still not being addressed.
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Hugh Breakey, Griffith University
To dob or not to dob? What are our reporting obligations in a pandemic? An ethicist steps you through five questions to ask yourself before you dob (and the same rules apply for kids, too).
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Environment + Energy
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Robert McLachlan, Massey University
The way we use fossil fuels is wasteful and inefficient. A world based on renewable energy would need half as much as we produce now.
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Matthew Luskin, The University of Queensland; David Kurz, Trinity College; Fiffy Hanisdah Saikim, Indigenous Knowledge; Matthew D. Potts, University of California, Berkeley
The changing dynamic between Borneo’s pigs and Indigenous people is a powerful reminder of the fragility of the human-nature connection.
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Featured jobs
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— Batchelor NT, Australia
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Featured Events & Courses
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New South Wales, 2009, Australia — University of Technology Sydney
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Level 21, 15 Broadway,, Ultimo, New South Wales, 2007, Australia — University of Technology Sydney
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Online, Kensington, New South Wales, 2052, Australia — UNSW
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