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On Tuesday the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development downgraded its forecasts for just about every economy on earth.
It did this in part because two important regions, the European Union and the United Kingdom appear to already be in recession.
The United States may not be far behind. Last week the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell mused about the possibility of his program of interest rate rises leading to a US recession, while saying he expected to increase rates even more.
Share markets have plummeted in recent days on the realisation that if the US does slip into recession it will take much of the rest of the world with it.
This morning I outline the mechanism by which US rate hikes and a resulting US recession are likely to lead to rate hikes and resulting recessions in the rest of the world, along with a way in which Australia can escape that fate, as it has in the past.
It will require astute judgement on the part of the Reserve Bank. Its decisions, to be made at a series of meetings from next Tuesday, will be as important as the decisions the treasurer announces in the budget on October 25.
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Peter Martin
Business + Economy Editor
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Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
At the right moment, Australia’s Reserve Bank would be wise to stop taking its lead from the US – holding interest rates here steady, even if they’re still rising overseas.
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Naser Ghobadzadeh, Australian Catholic University
Public support for the latest protests in Iran is unusually high and widespread. Demonstrations are underway in cities large and small, neighbourhoods rich and poor.
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Culum Brown, Macquarie University
As the dead whales decompose, an astonishing and rare chain of events is likely to flow through the marine ecosystem – ultimately leading to an explosion of activity and new life.
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Christian Moro, Bond University; Charlotte Phelps, Bond University
Most people sleep on their side, which is good because those who sleep on their backs are more likely to be poor sleepers or have breathing difficulties at night.
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Melanie Woodfield, University of Auckland; Jin Russell, University of Auckland
Secondary school exams are here, with all the stress they bring. But parents can help their teenagers stay engaged by getting the motivational basics right and keeping a sense of perspective.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Under the proposed legislation for the Albanese governments anti-corruption body, public hearings would only be held in ‘exceptional circumstances’ and in the public interest.
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Politics + Society
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Rachel Gallagher, The University of Queensland; Thomas Sigler, The University of Queensland; Yan Liu, The University of Queensland
The zoning policies that planners introduced to create vibrant and resilient mixed-use neighbourhoods have had the opposite effect, as services and residential developments crowd out light industry.
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Adrian Beaumont, The Conversation
A recent NSW Resolve poll gave Labor 43% of the primary vote, and the Coalition just 30%, though the major party leaders were tied for preferred premier.
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Health + Medicine
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Helen Dickinson, UNSW Sydney; Raelene West, UNSW Sydney
The original vision for the NDIS was that it would give people with disabilities a say in how services are delivered. The appointment of an NDIA chair who is disabled is a positive move.
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Jeanine Young, University of the Sunshine Coast
Although rare, deaths of babies in slings are potentially preventable. Caregivers should visualise the baby’s airway as tube that is vulnerable and needs protection.
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Science + Technology
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Christoph Treude, The University of Melbourne
Major companies around the world rely on third-party code. What happens when a programmer has a political point to make?
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Environment + Energy
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Anthony Kimpton, The University of Queensland; Dorina Pojani, The University of Queensland; Jonathan Corcoran, The University of Queensland; Julia Loginova, The University of Queensland; Richard Bean, The University of Queensland; Thomas Sigler, The University of Queensland
Scooter share schemes actually become more popular in hot weather, as people turn to them to avoid breaking a sweat
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Arts + Culture
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Brett Farmer, Deakin University
Today she is most recognised for roles in Mary Poppins or The Sound of Music, but Julie Andrews made her professional West End debut at the age of 12.
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Books + Ideas
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Ann-Marie Priest, CQUniversity Australia
The public image of Gwen Harwood as a suburban housewife is belied by the raw sensuality of her erotic poetry. And in her personal life, she claimed her right to move – and love – where she would.
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