In the lead-up to the next big climate conference, COP28 in Dubai, an independent group of global leaders called the Climate Overshoot Commission has been concentrating on a vexed question: what do we do when global warming pushes past the crucial threshold of 1.5℃?

Not if, but when. Let that sink in.

They haven’t given up on the central goal of the Paris Agreement, limiting global warming to 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial average. But they’re contemplating the possibility of exceeding and then returning to this “safe” level – rising into the danger zone, just for a little while.

The commission’s very existence is a tacit admission that the world has failed to avert dangerous climate change. As Jonathan Symons writes in his expert analysis of the report: “The idea we can avoid dangerous warming completely seems increasingly quaint. Like baggy jeans, the boy band NSYNC and the iPod shuffle, it reminds us of a more innocent era.”

The report recommends four ways to manage this period of “overshoot” and hopefully make it as short and painless as possible. Cutting emissions and phasing out fossil fuels remains the first priority. Step two is adapting to the climate change that’s now unavoidable. Step three is “draw-down”, pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and the ocean by any means possible.

Step four – attempting to deflect the Sun’s rays via “solar radiation management” – is a last resort. So much so that the commission wants governments to place a moratorium on it, for as long as it takes for scientists and policymakers get their heads around the prospect.

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