To Donald Trump, it was “Liberation Day.” But to economists, finance ministers and consumers the world over, April 2, 2025 represented something quite different, and a little more painful. The various tariffs that the U.S. president announced on that day had many of them getting out the calculator to count the cost of higher priced imports and high street goods.

Economics professor Niven Winchester had already done his sums. His model on what to expect took in both Trump’s tariffs and any likely retaliatory moves by other governments, and forecast the impact it would all have on production, trade and consumption of goods and services.

The top line: there are few winners here and Americans will bear the brunt. “The tariffs decrease U.S. GDP by US$438.4 billion (1.45%). Divided among the nation’s 126 million households, GDP per household decreases by $3,487 per year,” writes Winchester. Mexico and Canada take a nasty hit too. But pretty much every country will suffer, save for a couple of lucky nations – New Zealand and Brazil, for example – that will actually gain a little from the trade war.

“Previous tariff announcements by the Trump administration dropped sand into the cogs of international trade. The reciprocal tariffs throw a spanner into the works,” concludes Winchester.

Elsewhere this week, we have been looking at how Myanmar’s generals are playing disaster diplomacy following the deadly earthquake and exploring what is really going on with China’s “invasion barges.”