As the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the war seems to have been pushed off the airwaves and newspaper front pages by the conflict in Gaza.

With “Ukraine fatigue” setting in around the world, and some Western politicians increasingly wary of sending more aid to Ukraine, it’s an important moment to take stock of the devastation wrought by Russia’s invasion and occupation.

Jon Richardson, a former Australian diplomat in Russia, has done just that today. It makes for very sobering and distressing reading.

The numbers of civilian deaths, he writes, are far from certain. Revisiting the horrific bombardment of Mariupol, he says upwards of 87,000 people may have died in this city alone.

As for battlefield casualties, Richardson points to US estimates that half a million soldiers may have been killed or wounded overall.

Richardson then delves into the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure, the mass deportations of children to Russia, and the violent repression Russian forces have used to cement their authority in occupied Ukrainian regions.

In these regions, Ukrainian cultural identity is being slowly erased. This, to many observers, is evidence the invasion has been genocidal in nature.

In a companion piece, Russia security expert Matthew Sussex argues this could be a trying and pivotal year for Ukraine – and the world should be paying closer attention.

With Russia’s recent advances on the battlefield and US military aid still held up in Congress, the war could tilt in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favour.

Putin is wagering that conquest comes without consequences. If he can keep domestic discontent muted long enough for the West to lose interest in the war, Sussex writes, this could embolden him to sets his sights on other neighbouring states next.

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