Nau mai haere mai – welcome to this week’s newsletter.

Sunday night’s Newshub-Reid Research poll ensured the fortunes of New Zealand’s political parties stayed front and centre this week. And while the National Party dismissed it as a “rogue poll” – at a projected 25.1% support they didn’t have much option – it was still within the broad trajectory of polls since May. As political scientist Richard Shaw argues, the overall trend suggests the centre of New Zealand politics is moving significantly to the left, with the possibility at least of a single party winning an outright majority for the first time under the MMP electoral system.

But whoever forms the next government will be faced with extraordinary challenges, and not just domestically. New Zealand is increasingly finding itself caught between the competing agendas of the US and China in what legal expert Al Gillespie describes as a “new cold war”. (After we published, the government suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong in protest at China’s new security law, which highlights the tensions outlined in our coverage.)

In turn, the China problem is a symptom of what international relations analyst Robert Patman sees as the collapse of the old rules-based order, as the likes of China, Russia, the UK and the US abandon the institutions and agreements that New Zealand and other smaller nations depend on.

As if that isn’t enough, there’s climate change too – but there’s some (slightly) good news here. In the latest instalment of our Climate Explained series, Robert McLachlan looks at why it’s not helpful to focus on worst-case scenarios.

So let’s look on the bright side for now! I hope you enjoy the reading in this newsletter and on our New Zealand homepage, and thanks as ever for all your support.

Noho ora mai – till next time.

Finlay Macdonald

New Zealand Editor: Politics, Business + Arts
AAP(various)/NZ Greens (CC-BY-SA)/The Conversation

Rogue poll or not, all the signs point to a tectonic shift in New Zealand politics

Richard Shaw, Massey University

With the polls showing a clear trend to the left, are we also witnessing a fundamental shift in the way New Zealand governments are formed?
GettyImages

The dangerous new cold war brewing with China will test New Zealand even more than the old one

Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato

Between trade and traditional security alliances, New Zealand is being pulled in opposite directions over China. A new foreign policy is urgently needed.
AAP (various)

When great powers fail, New Zealand and other small states must organise to protect their interests

Robert G. Patman, University of Otago

The power vacuum in world leadership means New Zealand and other small states will have to create a new rules-based international order.
Thongden Studio/Shutterstock

Climate explained: are we doomed if we don’t manage to curb emissions by 2030?

Robert McLachlan, Massey University

To limit warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels, we'll need to cut global emissions by 7.6% each year this decade. It's difficult, but not impossible.

From our foreign editions

Explainer: why is the South China Sea such a hotly contested region?

Greg Austin, UNSW

As tensions in the disputed waters mount, it's important to understand how this conflict began and what international law says about freedom of navigation and competing maritime claims.

Carbon emissions are chilling the atmosphere 90km above Antarctica, at the edge of space

John French, University of Tasmania; Andrew Klekociuk, University of Tasmania; Frank Mulligan, National University of Ireland Maynooth

Carbon emissions are chilling the atmosphere 90km above Antarctica, at the edge of space

Coronavirus: how countries aim to get the vaccine first by cutting opaque supply deals

Duncan Matthews, Queen Mary University of London

Instead of a global response to the pandemic, we're seeing an outbreak of vaccine nationalism.

Peter Green: troubled Fleetwood Mac founder leaves legacy of brilliance that shines still

Adam Behr, Newcastle University

A virtuoso guitarist and songwriter, Green's career was blighted by drug-amplified mental health problems.

At the evangelical Creation Museum, dinosaurs lived alongside humans and the world is 6,000 years old

William Trollinger, University of Dayton; Susan L Trollinger, University of Dayton

A Kentucky museum tells the history of the universe according to the Bible in an effort to debunk evolution. Its owner, the Christian group Answers in Genesis, promotes right-wing political causes.

4 lawsuits that challenge Trump’s federal agents in Portland test issues other cities will likely face

Sarah J. Adams-Schoen, University of Oregon

The lawsuits filed in Portland sparked by the presence of federal law enforcement agents sent there by President Trump are a preview of the legal battles to come in cities across the US.

South Africa faces mass hunger if efforts to offset impact of COVID-19 are eased

Gabrielle Wills, Stellenbosch University; Leila Patel, University of Johannesburg; Servaas van der Berg, Stellenbosch University

South Africans have experienced significant shocks to their livelihoods, and the threat of hunger presents a major concern for health, political and social stability.

A brief history of masks from the 17th-century plague to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic

Catherine Carstairs, University of Guelph

The COVID-19 pandemic is not the first time people have been required to wear face masks for protection. Mask-wearing has a long history, and reflects society's sense of shared responsibility.