The election campaign has really ramped up this week with the release of the party manifestos. We now have detailed plans of what all the parties are promising to do if elected. But given it looks highly likely Labour will form the next government, it’s worth spending extra time looking at its manifesto.

The biggest surprise was that there weren't any surprises. We've already heard a lot on the campaign trail about most of these proposals, from reforming the planning system, to building houses, to putting an age limit on the House of Lords.

Yet, as Despina Alexiadou argues here, the radical changes are not in the policies themselves, but in Keir Starmer's overall approach to more state-led economic growth, rather than relying solely on the private sector. She compares and contrasts this manifesto with New Labour's 1997 document and believes Starmer’s proposals to be even bolder.

For the Conservatives, this campaign has become a challenge to hang onto whatever seats they can manage. But a new YouGov poll suggests that may be getting more difficult – Reform UK is now apparently neck-and-neck with the Tories. Party leader Nigel Farage claimed in a triumphant press conference today that this means Reform is the “new opposition”. Is he right? Paul Whiteley explains what has actually happened, and what it might mean come election day.

We’ve also had a team of academic experts poring over the details of some of Labour's manifesto pledges, to explain where the party will deliver, where it will struggle and where it could go further.

One example is the promise to create Great British Energy, a national energy company that Labour says will help achieve net zero and create jobs through a programme of “green prosperity”. In this piece, Jamie Speirs digs more into the possibilities of Great British Energy, and looks at some lessons from similar projects in Scotland and Wales about timing and costs that Labour should pay close attention to. Labour is also looking at some not-so-great British energy – promising to ban the sale of energy drinks to under-16s.

Labour has gone big on education, proposing to recruit 6,500 new teachers, paid for by ending tax breaks for private schools. But this, Joshua Fullard argues, misses the bigger picture of why so many teachers (43,500 in England during the last year alone) are leaving the profession.

On migration, a bit of a change from Rishi Sunak's “stop the boats” is Starmer’s “smash the gangs”. But as is the case with most pithy slogans, it’s not that easy. Smuggling researcher David Suber explains that the links between organised crime and smuggling aren’t as clear as politicians would have you believe.

We’ll have lots more analysis coming soon, but if you're enjoying this coverage, please share this newsletter with a friend – and tell them to sign up here. And to help us do even more, please consider making a donation to The Conversation.

Avery Anapol

Commissioning Editor, Politics + Society

What will Labour actually do in government? Manifesto clues point to a surprisingly radical agenda

Despina Alexiadou, University of Strathclyde

Comparing Keir Starmer’s 2024 election manifesto with Tony Blair’s 1997 document is a helpful way to understand why the vision is grander than is being portrayed.

Has Reform really overtaken the Tories in the polls? And does that mean it could beat them on July 4?

Paul Whiteley, University of Essex

Data from Ukip’s performance in 2017 shows that once a certain tipping point is passed, Reform is indeed a significant threat to the Tories.

Labour’s immigration plans: a border security expert explains why ‘smashing the gangs’ is so difficult

David Suber, UCL

Connections between smuggling and other forms of serious organised crime remain largely unverified.

Why Labour and the Conservatives think they can improve the country without raising taxes – and why it’s a gamble

Shampa Roy-Mukherjee, University of East London

Both parties hope growing the economy can help them avoid difficult choices.

Labour pledges to recruit 6,500 new teachers – but research shows the ones we already have need a better deal

Joshua Fullard, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

It could be argued that teachers who have remained committed to the profession are the ones who most deserve a reward, not new entrants.

Trust hits new low: 45% of people think politicians put party before country

John Curtice, National Centre for Social Research

More than half of people now support electoral reform.

Lib Dem proposals take social care reform seriously – but doubts remain over how they’d pay for it

Kate Hamblin, University of Sheffield; Catherine Needham, University of Birmingham

The Lib Dem manifesto addresses many of the key areas in social care that need reform. But it doesn’t say how the party would pay for them.

 

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