| Volume 14, Issue 2: Spring 2023 |
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| Victorian seasonal climate summary (winter 2023) and outlook (spring 2023) in brief |
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For Australia as a whole, winter rainfall was 4.2% below the 1961-1990 time period average – the current international standard period for the calculation of climate averages. Whilst Victoria’s area-averaged rainfall total for winter was 173.7 mm (15.2% below the 1961–1990 winter mean of 204.84 mm), several sites mostly in the north western half of the state (including Mildura and Sea Lake) had their highest total winter rainfall for at least 20 years.
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Maximum temperatures across Australia were 1.85 degrees above average with parts of all eight states and territories having the warmest winter on record. Victoria overall had a winter temperature anomaly of 1.12 degrees above average (2nd warmest on record) with nearly all of the eastern half of the state recording warmest winter temperatures on record.
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A warming trend in sea surface temperatures (SST) has been observed in the NINO3 and NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean during the past three to six months, creating El Niño like oceanic conditions.
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A majority of surveyed climate models predict sustained warming to at least 0.8 °C above average in the NINO3 and NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean for the next 6 months.
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The average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was –7 or lower for most of winter, occasionally behaving El Niño like. Currently the SOI is significantly negative to indicate El Niño like pressure patterns.
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The Indian Ocean surface temperatures have been in positive Indian Ocean territory for the last 2 weeks. Cloud patterns also appear +IOD like. Models predict a +IOD to continue for the next 3 months.
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The ENSO outlook is currently at El Niño Alert mostly due to the observed behaviour as listed above of three of four El Niño Alert criteria, namely the SST, SOI and NINO3/NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean taking place. The fourth one being that Trade Winds need to have been weaker than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any two of the last three months, which has not been strictly observed. Weak or reversed trade winds are a critical feature of fully coupled El Niños. However, when three of the four El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.
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Based on assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria for spring 2023 it is likely to be drier and warmer. Obviously, every year is different and a dry outlook (El Niño alert) does not necessarily mean it will come to fruition. Rather, it reflects how the odds are stacked.
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| Relevant and useful climate summary outlook links |
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For regular updates on oceanic and atmospheric climate driver activity, along with summaries of model predictions for rainfall and temperature forecasts in Victoria, (which previously appeared in the milking the weather newsletter) visit the Agriculture Victoria’s Break Newsletters’ page. You can also become a regular subscriber to Break Newsletters by visiting this website if you aren’t already.
Also check out the following links that cover a range of climate related information. In addition to the regular resources included in this section you’ll notice a few different additions that may pique your interest this time around (marked with *).
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| Farmers managing seasonal risk successfully – September 2023 farmer case studies |
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Maria Rose, Dairy Extension Officer, Agriculture Victoria
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I recently caught up with case study farmers Kevin Fitzsimmons from the Northern Irrigation Region (left), Chris Nixon from Orbost in East Gippsland (middle) and John Versteden from West Gippsland (right), over the last week of winter 2023. We were last updated by these three six months back.
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This time around, Kevin, Chris and John share with us:
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What key issues and events went well for them over last winter and the previous autumn
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What challenged them over these 6 months and the associated management changes
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Anticipated challenges ahead.
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| Kevin Fitzsimmons, Merrigum, Northern Irrigation Region |
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When we caught up with Kevin six months ago in early March, we learned that ongoing rain events were manageable until early last October. When water was everywhere, wreaking havoc in terms of a substantial loss of both milker quality hay and milk production.
Despite this set back they were able to make enough hay and silage to replenish their fodder reserves, although it was at lesser quality than usual due to flood conditions. Also, the December calving herd was dried off three weeks early. This time our chat with Kevin post dealing with major flooding, sees him preparing for the spring.
A hectic autumn
Last autumn was hectic indeed with all the oversowing we needed to do to get all our pastures back on track, due to the hammering they got with the floods. On our home place, all autumn pastures were sown with a shaftel and ryegrass mix, which has come up very well. We also put wheat into the lease block, which was around 110 hectares worth, which we sowed dry (late May), so we were stressing for timely moisture to get that up and going as the weather forecast then was for a dry outlook.
Gamble to sow dry pays off
Despite this we went ahead and sowed all of the lease block in the hope that we did get some rain. It eventuated at the start of June we got terrific rain. June was actually very wet overall as it turned out. That timely rain early in the month got those wheat crops up and going. Currently in this last week in August the wheat crop is going really well - so we should make some good quality hay. We would still like at least another 25 mm of rain to increase the quantity, but with a dry outlook that is not likely.
A 15 percentage annual production loss
The floods certainly affected the cow’s production. I worked out that since the floods compared to last year (when we were budgeting on a 10% production increase), we were down 1500 litres down a day on average for 8 months. This equates to a 20% production loss for that that period. That large production loss really hurt!
The only thing that saved us in regard to income was the increase in milk price. Otherwise that would have hurt us financially. This large drop in annual production was purely a direct effect of the floods because pasture quality was down and once they dropped we just couldn’t get them back up again.
Several not just one flood rain event
Looking back and thinking forward, there’s nothing we could have done to prevent this production loss. Management strategy wise, we had everything in place. We were using the feed pad fully and feeding out hay, so we saved our pastures as far as pugging goes. But because it wasn’t just one big rain event, rather it was several rain events on top of each other (creating prolonged waterlogging of pastures), there was severe damage to the quality of all pasture that took hold, resulting in unavoidable production loss.
You can’t control nature – so there’s nothing we could’ve done more than what we did. It was just a matter of managing it as best we could, focusing on not pugging up all our pastures too much. I think there was only 1 or 2 paddocks that were slightly pugged - so we managed pretty well from that point of view. We really had everything in place, from a mitigation angle to preserve all our pastures, it was just the quality of the pasture that knocked us around.
Salmonella outbreak
We had a few dramas with our autumn calving. A salmonella outbreak really knocked that group of milkers around and we lost a couple of cows. We vaccinated the whole herd and gave them a booster shot as well. On top of everything else I talked about earlier, that set us back again. So a bit of drama and a kick in the backside, but we got through that too.
Only autumn calvers affected
We don’t know if the salmonella outbreak was a direct effect of the floods. The number of ducks and other birds around this year is phenomenal and that may be as a result of the prolonged wet conditions. But why was it just the autumn calving cows that were affected? Was it something related to the calving pad? We don’t know.
We weren’t the only ones. I’ve heard of several other cases in the local area including the neighbours up the road who also lost several cows. Since the floods, we also calved at Christmas time (start of December) and we didn’t have a problem with salmonella then, it was just the autumn calving group.
Full water allocation
It’s the start of a new irrigation season now and we’ve got plenty of water currently given the full allocation of water right received. Water prices have gone up since last season on the temporary market but it’s still pretty reasonable price wise.
Given we’ve got full allocation I am not in the market to buy temporary water at the moment. I am hoping it will be at least three quarters of the way through this new milk production season before I need to buy in any. Probably after Christmas time we will look pretty closely at what we need water security wise.
Good timing with track upgrading
The new block next door has really been a godsend for us. Obviously, we’ve been able to increase our rotation with that extra land – so plenty of feed in front of the cows. A great decision we made was to upgrade all our major tracks to this new block and also those on the home block up to the dairy (which we’d had problems with in the past) while things were pretty dry. Our timing was perfect (or just lucky) as we got all tracks on both properties upgraded before the first rain in early June which was very wet overall. So that big financial investment certainly paid off!
Early dry off for December calvers
Our December calving herd was dried off 3 weeks early as they had dropped off a lot due to the floods in October 2022. As a financial decision that was the best strategy as it just it wasn’t worth milking them over that time. The rubbish in the pastures from the flood aftermath needed cleaning up. So that extra 3 weeks of having those cows dry certainly helped with getting pastures cleaned up and ready for over sowing as quickly as possible. Those cows came into production in better condition because of that extended drying off period.
Best group of young cattle
All groups of heifers (6 in total) are going really well. We have a couple of properties that we lease, so that gives us the area to rotate them. We also had plenty of hay (only average quality) that we’ve been able to top them up with. We’ve also had plenty of summer pasture that we’ve been able to water. Probably the best group of young cattle we’ve had and looking forward to when they calve.
Enough young stock coming through
The boys (my two sons who are both back on the farm) are wanting to increase milking herd numbers to 400 cows from the current 300. So we are in a dairy business growth phase. I keep telling them as long as we can feed them that’s the main thing. I don’t want to be getting on that merry go round where you’ve got to be buying in feed all the time. I guess in the back of my mind we still want to purchase the rest of the farm next door (200 acres). So we are trying to build the herd to facilitate this.
We’ve got the young stock coming through that we reckon will be enough to get that extra 100 in the herd through natural growth in around 18 months potentially. If the rest of the new block sale comes through within that time frame as we are expecting, we’ll have the milking numbers there ready to milk off that future area straight away.
Dealing with dry conditions forecast
Obviously, the forecast of dry conditions which they predicted 3 months ago is top of mind for us. As I said earlier we have a full allocation of water so as far as irrigation goes we are fine. We’ve been getting rain events of 5 to 10 mm quite regularly and that’s going to hopefully finish off our wheat for summer hay – so that’s looking pretty good. As far as our clover and sub clover pasture hay goes, we can irrigate those paddocks which we can easily get going when we need to. So we should be able to make plenty of hay out of that as well.
If summer and autumn rains are low
Obviously if it stays dry longer, we’ll go back into the temporary water market as we haven’t got enough water (even with a full allocation) to water everything right through to the end of the season. We are probably around 200 ML of water short if it doesn’t rain enough over summer and autumn.
Eye on weather forecasts and water trends
For the next 3 to 6 months we are just keeping an eye on the water market and the weather conditions simultaneously and we will enter the water market when we perceive it’s the most economical time. If conditions start to get drier and there’s a trend of the water price increasing, we’ll buy then most likely before the prices get high.
I’m thinking that we might be buying in temporary water around Christmas as the worst case scenario – but we’ll be ready for it! We watch both the water price trends and weather forecasts constantly as those two components are front and centre of our decision making.
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| Chris Nixon, Orbost, East Gippsland |
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The last time we spoke with Chris Nixon was at the start of autumn, a week after they had harvested the first of their sorghum crop for silage. Grazing had stopped on the hill country (half of the farm) as it was too dry for growing milker feed. On the other half of the farm (the flats) grazing had been slowed down to a 30 - day rotation to accommodate the stocking rate of 5 cows per hectare required. Now six months on as we head into spring 2023, Chris said.
A successful autumn
Last autumn came off the back of a very wet 12 months. It finally stopped raining in January. As we had a lot of subsoil moisture and the weather was not so hot we had good pasture growth over most of the summer which continued into autumn. Overall autumn was on the drier side, a nice change to the prolonged wet conditions. We managed to successfully over sow our paddocks with annual rye grass and a couple of renovated paddocks were sown down to permanent pasture.
A good and bad winter
Winter was very dry overall which was good and bad. On the one hand, that made calving the herd down this year incredibly easy - we haven’t had it that easy since the last drought. But on the downside, up until this last week in August, we’ve only had 270 mm of rain for the calendar year which is as bad as the worst previous drought years. Fortunately because of the previous wet twelve months, there is still a little bit of soil moisture but it’s starting to disappear now. We are now in the situation where we are desperately seeking decent spring rains.
Less production
For the 2022-23 financial year was slightly down on the previous year. Which was due mainly to the incredibly wet spring we had.
We made up ground due to a mild summer and autumn of 2023. But we are very happy with the profit we made this last financial year thanks to the annual milk price received. Cow condition I consider was good, but not fantastic, because we were coming off quite an extended period of prolonged wet conditions.
Sacrifice paddock system was a great success.
We’d been feeding out for quite a long time, since March in fact, including running a sacrifice paddock system in which we were fully feeding all through winter. Unlike previous winters this worked wonderfully well because it was so dry and therefore there was minimal paddock damage and oversown paddocks have come out very nicely from it as a direct result.
Adjusting our silage mix
Primarily the feed used in this paddock sacrifice system was all home grown fodder of maize that we grew 2 years ago and a crop of oats and peas that we also put into silage last year. We feed test all the components for a changing silage mix to make sure the cow’s diet is balanced for protein and energy as required.
As we moved into winter we changed that ration into more of a dry cow ration which included sorghum that we grew on our turnout block (instead of the usual maize because that was too wet and too risky and too late to grow). We mixed the sorghum and the peas and oats and maize silages to bulk up the dry cow ration to the cows.
At the start of this year’s calving, the first week in July we were back into the milker silage ration mix and we’re just winding that down as spring approaches. We’ve only got 100 cows left to calve at the start of this last week in August.
Sacrifice grazing strategy pays off
As autumn conditions were so dry and we had slowed our rotation right down we weren’t winning profit wise, so we actually dried off a little bit earlier again this year. We were totally dried off by the end of May except for a few carryover cows we milked over winter and they’ll continue into early spring.
That’s why we ran the sacrifice system over winter so we could get the cows into one paddock, feed them as much good quality fodder that we could and to try to develop a feed wedge before calving started. This strategy has worked quite well as now in the last week of winter we have a reasonable feed wedge in front of us as we head into spring.
Dairy herd destocking strategy
This year we are calving down around 550 cows plus 85 carryover empty cows from last milking season. Those 85 cows won’t be re-joined and will be sold at the appropriate strategic time. If it stays dry, then we have a list of cows that have poor udders etc.
From previous droughts and related experience we can destock if it stays dry as long as we don’t buy in too much feed to try and hold milk production up for a larger number of cows. We can still make a profit on the dairy farm if we have to milk less cows. I’m not adverse to dropping back to 400 milkers. I don’t want to but I can and will if I have to!
Feed pad maintenance
Because it was dry over winter we got by without having to do any repairs on the feed pad. We will be waiting for enough spring pasture growth and we stop feeding cows (other than a light ration in the bale). We’ve been feeding cows flat out which has also prevented us from finding any free time to pull things apart in the feeding pad area and making the relevant adjustments.
We’ll now wait until we get more into spring, when we are no longer feeding, and have a bit of maintenance time to spare as we suffered a little of subsidence because of the long period of waterlogging underneath the feed pad. We’ll try to patch that up and get back to a good reasonable base under it.
Noticeable improvement in herd health
As you know we’ve stopped using conventional fertilisers - this being our fourth year now using a biological based fertiliser program. We are not seeing any adverse pasture growth because of the lack of chemical fertilisers. That doesn’t mean we can’t use a strategic application of a conventional fertiliser such as Nitrogen if we need to. But for now I don’t think we need to use any conventual fertilisers at this stage.
We have put a lot of gypsum and lime on in the last couple of years. We’ve also been putting the fish kelp and biological fertilisers in the hope that this approach helps with balancing soil nutrient content resulting in improved herd health. Our herd health does seem to have improved dramatically in the last year or two and in particular this year we’ve seen very few retained membrane and only a few cases of mastitis.
However we will still be drenching our cows for worms and parasites and taking precautions with salmonella using conventional treatments. I am not looking to go organic but I am seeing that since we’ve been focusing on non-conventional fertiliser application there’s quite an improvement in herd health.
As that is the only management practice we have changed, it appears (whether anecdotally or not) that the longer we use these non-conventional fertilisers, the more our herd health is improving. We used to get a lot of retained membranes constantly every year. However this year I’ve only treated 15 to 16 cows of the 400 calved so far.
Another early drying off
At the start of May, we virtually had no feed wedge left because nothing was growing back behind it after grazing. We couldn’t get to a 45 (minimum) day rotation like we were supposed to, because the growth rate was so slow. We therefore made the decision to dry the whole herd off about 10 days early (last week in May compared to the usual first or second week in June) milking only those carryover cows right through for a bit of regular income. We managed to hang onto our entire milking herd, providing them with just the home grown silage and normal supplement feed in the dairy, which we were very happy about.
Dealing with current uncertainty
I believe things financially are going to get tougher than they currently are, so we aren’t taking on any new projects on at all. Instead, we’ll be focusing on just buckling down, taking on maintenance projects only, and fully feeding as many cows as we can and see how that plays out. I am glad I put in the chiller system last year in the dairy last year and didn’t delay it until this year, which was one main option I considered 12 months ago.
There’s too much uncertainty around at the moment. I am particularly concerned about milk companies having paid too much for our milk and will try to claw back price. The way interest rates and feed and cattle prices are going also adds to financial stress. This is particularly pertinent for our situation where beef cattle is a large part of our income.
Destocking our beef herd
So in addition to no new projects and focusing on maintenance projects on the dairy farm especially, I am actually destocking my beef farm with 300 head going in the next 3 to 4 weeks. That’s due to the current large drop in beef cattle prices over the last year. Those beef animals that we plan to sell are mostly weaners we grew out last year and old cows.
We’ll do several drafts and keep going with them until I get to where I need to in terms of the sweet spot of stocking rate for the beef herd. For this financial year at least, our main priority is on ‘running the minimum number’ so feeding as many cows as best we can as cheap as we can!
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| John Versteden, Longwarry, West Gippsland |
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When we spoke with John during the first week of March he indicated that the farm was actually in surprisingly decent shape despite the prolonged wet conditions over both the previous spring and summer. At that time, the milkers had recovered well from having stripped off a bit of condition from feeding poorer quality whilst they were dry, and John had his fingers crossed for a really early autumn break. So six months on, let’s find out if his wish came true and what other outcomes followed.
Best autumn break for 10 years
We did actually get that early autumn break for which we were hoping! It was probably the best autumn break we’ve a number of years - probably the best one we’ve had for 10 years. That soaking rain basically came at the end of March and we had grass by about the middle of April which is pretty special. It certainly made the finish of the milk production season much easier.
Interesting soil moisture trends
I’ve probably mentioned before that we have a soil moisture monitoring probe here on the property. This autumn was interesting as soil moisture deficits had only dropped to about 60% – so it wasn’t dry like we’d normally expect. I think part of that was due to the fact that we didn’t have a wet summer, rather it was a fairly cool one so there wasn’t anywhere near the evaporation we normally have. We actually started with a really good autumn break with a fairly moist soil profile which meant by the end of June we had a full 100% soil moisture profile.
Winter pasture growth up 30%
It was looking a bit scary because we’d had those two wet springs in a row (2021 and 2022) and we thought – oh dear the third one is bound to be a very dry one. But it basically started raining at the start of June and August has been fantastic. Growth was 30% above what we expect over winter.
I haven’t got the data in front of me but I expect that the temperatures in June and July were 2 degrees higher than we would normally get. So and so the cows have had a really easy winter and we’ve got plenty of grass ahead of us.
Exceeding our best case scenario
We did use sacrifice paddocks for a little bit. In hind sight, we possibly could’ve done without them but that didn’t matter too much as it gave us some options – if it did stay wet, we’d have had those allocated paddocks to use if needed.
I believe we exceeded our best case scenario, that being, having a bit of mud through the winter and a few tough days. I just don’t remember any tough days this last winter. It’s been really pleasant. It’s been the easiest calving in a few years. I think we calved 500 cows in the first twenty days, which made it busy but we just cruised through it. There was just a lot less stress on us and the cows, mainly because the winter weather was so much better.
Young stock rearing program changes
Although our young stock are looking magnificent condition wise, we our changing our young stock rearing program because it looks like the China market is looking pretty much dead and that’s something we’ve participated in on a reasonably regular basis until now.
We are probably going to rear less calves now because of that situation. I don’t see the point in trying to rear calves with ‘no profit.’ I believe there is a shipment going to China shortly and the price has gone from $2,500 down to $1,000 per head. So if that’s what the future looks like, I don’t think that market will last as a lucrative option for too many people.
Rearing only what we need to replace
Going forward we will rear only what we need to in order to replace the milking herd. We won’t rear any extra’s like we have been doing – although we have the capacity to rear 300 and we probably only need about 180 to come into the herd.
If we rear 200 and something happens to a few of them then we are guaranteed we get at least the minimum we need. Particularly if our fertility in the herd continues to stay up. They’ve already had their selenium injection. That issue we talked about in the last update with selenium that we had last year will disappear this year, I am pretty confident.
Use treated seed regardless
I still think it is very important to use treated seed for sowings even when you do get that timely break. I can’t say that categorically as we don’t use any untreated seed anymore. But I think if you are sowing into a pasture that is half decent, all the critters that are going to eat your new little seedlings are already there; compared to totally cultivating the paddock and there’s no food for the bugs to eat.
So I think it’s actually even more important when you’ve got a half decent break. I just think for the sake of $1.50 a kilogram of seed, I just wouldn’t put seed in the ground without it anymore ($8.50 - $10 is the difference essentially).
Monitor pasture growth more regularly
I am keen to capitalise on what this spring delivers for us! I mean if it is a bit dry, compared to what we’ve had over the last couple of years that might actually be a bonus. Because the last two springs have been particularly challenging due to prolonged wet conditions. Who knows this spring we may even have to make silage at home if we get a real cracking early spring. But then again, it might be short lived.
I think the key focus for us is to do those farm walks to monitor pasture growth when they need to be done. This spring that might mean to get down to every 5 or 6 days if we need to. If things are humming along pretty well, the key is to make sure that those pasture monitoring walks continue to happen often enough rather than get complacent and finish stuffing it up pretty quick – because you can stuff it up pretty quickly if you slacken off.
Be prepared for all scenarios
It's all onward and upward at the moment! I don’t see too many hurdles in the way, but let’s just see how that plays out. The spring season might cut out a bit or even a lot shorter as that’s what the long term climatic forecast is hinting. It’s the same old story – you’ve got to prepare for the worst case scenario rather than count on the best one coming to fruition, especially when it comes to the weather!
Same as normal, we hope for an early break but we probably won’t get one so let’s be prepared as always for that worst case scenario. What if we don’t get that real spring break until mid-November? We’ve had seasons where probably the earliest we’ve ever started feeding is the middle of December, but that may not always be the case. Or what if we get an early break but it’s short lived?
Feed budgeting calculations are essential
The upshot is, it’s a long way from the middle of December to the first of June, when cows are close to starting a new milking season. That’s the sort of the bank of feed we need to be working on. Hence my thinking around maybe having a couple of hundred tonne of vetch sitting in the shed to try and stretch the silage out. There’s always the possibility that my contractor can’t get the 500 tonnes of silage and we have to be vigilantly ready for that. We’ve got a little bit of vetch hay left from last year which will be part of the feed budgeting calculations.
More than 100 days of summer?
I think the trick is not to be gung-ho about it when it comes to having enough fodder to get you through summer. We used to say it’s only 100 days of summer, but I think on average over the last 10 or so years it’s been more like 120 – 130 days of summer! And that likely extra 30 days of feed that you might need, if you don’t have it and you have to go out into the market place and buy it then, that feed will be a hell of a lot more expensive.
Additional challenges ahead
There’s a part of me that is worried about the future milk price and the cliff towards which we might be heading. For a start, I’ve never seen the time when the NZ price of milk is above ours by the level it currently is. There are so many flashing lights that are telling me that we need to be really conscious that our current milk price is probably not going to stay high indefinitely. So on top of varying climatic seasons, that will add an extra challenge in our farm management decision making.
Therefore we need to be increasingly aware that although today’s milk prices are very good, they may not be in the near future and we just need to be continually mindful that a less favourable variation to a current high milk price could be sitting just around the corner. So we need to be mindful of this when planning ahead for climatic seasons for all possible best case and worse case management scenarios.
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| Victorian dairying areas seasonal soil moisture condition assessment – winter 2023 review and spring 2023 update |
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Richard Smith and Michele Jolliffe, Dairy Extension Officers, Agriculture Victoria
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Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture probes on dryland sites greatly assist farmers with making early decisions related to crop and pasture management in the cropping, meat and wool grazing, and dairying industries.
Currently there are 30 probes installed on a range of soil and pasture types across Victoria in dryland sites. Three of the more established sites are located on dryland dairy farms in Jancourt (south-west Victoria), Longwarry (west Gippsland) and Jack River near Yarram (south Gippsland).
The installed probes measure adjacent soil moisture at each of these 30 monitoring sites and are best described as capacitance types. They are 80 centimetres long with eight internal sensors to provide soil water content values and temperature every 10 centimetres.
Sites are best assessed individually as the different soil types means they cannot be directly compared to others. Also, these probes are useful in showing total soil moisture levels from estimated plant available water and relative movement/use of moisture down the profile.
Monthly analysis of all monitoring sites produced by Agriculture Victoria as an e-newsletter
Live interactive Soil Moisture Monitoring Dashboard
In this article, we feature Jancourt, Longwarry and Yarram sites (marked with a green tick in the map below) through a detailed update on the key recent soil moisture level observations from last winter as well as relevant future insights for this spring.
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LONGWARRY (WEST GIPPSLAND) CHICORY AND PERENNIAL PASTURE
Soil Type: Brown Dermosol Soil Texture: Clay Loam
Entering winter, the Longwarry site was well above field capacity, with below median rainfall. This was mixed with above average rainfall in June petering out to below average for the end July and August, causing the site to continue to sit above saturation point.
As shown by the moisture speedo graph below, the Longwarry site is typical of west Gippsland. With reports the wet conditions created waterlogged paddocks, impacting pasture growth and causing pugging. It hampered safe grazing and pasture maintenance activities and impacted silage making in west Gippsland.
With the current moisture at the same point as last year and the site above saturation, this will help to offset the below average with the BOM predication a forecast probability of 60% for unusually dry for spring.
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For current and overall soil moisture (10 to 80 centimetres) data for the Longwarry chicory probe site, as shown on the left for 6 March 2023 click here.
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JANCOURT (SOUTH WEST VICTORIA) PERENNIAL PASTURE UPDATE
Soil Type: Grey Dermosol Soil Texture: Clay Loam
Entering winter soil moisture at Jancourt site was sitting at 70%, the above average rainfall in June of 137 mm caused levels to jump to saturation. Draw down occurred as winter progressed and July and August recorded below average rainfall.
In the south west region of Victoria grass growth was limited during June and July due the saturation level and cold conditions and the feeding out of fodder. This also impacted crops as little emergence was seen during this time.
However, vigilance was needed. Slugs and snails pressure remains very high in parts of the region this season, especially in pastures, and crops saw conical snails in high numbers. The wet conditions delayed silage harvest, and in some areas, it will be several weeks until paddocks can be accessed.
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For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Jancourt pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes click here.
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These conditions hampered safe grazing and pasture maintenance activities and impacted silage making west Gippsland. With the current moisture at the same point as last year and the site above saturation, this will help to offset the below average with the BOM predication a forecast probability of 60% for unusually dry for spring.
For current and overall soil moisture (10 to 80 centimetres) data for the Longwarry probe site, as shown above click here.
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YARRAM (SOUTHGIPPSLAND) PASTURE
Soil Type: Brown Sodosol Soil Texture: Clay Loam
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Jack River was typical of those in south Gippsland, with above average rainfall in June, and below average rainfall in July and August. At the start of winter, the Jack River site was dry with moisture down the profile.
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The rainfall through June caused rapid improvements, hitting saturation late June. Then there was a drying period during July and August as plant use met lower than average rainfall in these two months.
These conditions led to producers in the south and central Gipppsland areas experiencing good pasture growth as conditions were not as wet as further west. Towards the end of winter the ground started to dry out rapidly as seen in the speedo below. Forage Brassicas showed good growth in this region and provided a good offset during July. Silage was mixed with second cuts delayed due to conditions.
This low base is a change from last year which showed a saturated soil profile. This combined with the BOM forecasting a drier than average forecast with probability at 62% of rainfall in decile 1 and 2.
For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Yarram pasture site in Agriculutre Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, click here.
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