In this highly politicized and frightening period in politics, we’re all arm-chair analysts. We try to find meaning in every election result and often make overly dooms-day or optimistic predictions about looming elections. The truth is, no one knows what’s going to happen until all the votes are counted, including pollsters.

There have been two provincial elections in the past few days in Canada. In B.C., the province’s resurgent Conservatives have seemingly failed to fell the long-serving New Democrats. But in New Brunswick, the Liberals won a big majority and brought down Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs, who lost his own riding. The theory that voters want to kick incumbent governments to the curb didn’t seem to apply in B.C. Did it in New Brunswick, or would Higgs have won if he hadn’t implemented such a hard-right agenda in the province?

Today in The Conversation Canada, Noah Fry of McMaster University argues that Higgs’ brand of grievance politics became a real turnoff to voters. As he took aim at francophones, trans kids and Indigenous Peoples, Higgs embraced a neoconservative social agenda that other Conservative premiers in Atlantic Canada have avoided. His loss is at odds with the idea that conservatism is on the rise in Canada.

Fry writes: “After repeatedly focusing on social issues over matters like housing, the grievances lost their allure. Even for the most steadfast Conservative voters, Higgs’ targeting of minorities came across as bullying.”

Also today:

• What are you really eating? 1 in 5 seafood products in our study were mislabelled
• ‘Nobody Wants This’ amps laughs about intermarriage in Judaism but intended humour hurts
• The Canadian Arctic shows how understanding the effects of climate change requires long-term vision
• As a federal election campaign looms, Canadians must demand stronger ethics laws from politicians