Volume 17, Issue 3: Spring 2026      

Welcome to the spring edition of Milking the Weather

Farmers successfully managing seasonal risk

Bec Cameron, Dairy Industry Development Officer, Agriculture Victoria

As we move into spring, many dairy farmers are starting the season with good soil moisture reserves and plenty of potential for pasture growth. Winter rainfall has helped recharge soil profiles across much of the state, setting up favourable conditions for strong feed production in the months ahead. While seasonal conditions can always bring their share of challenges, having moisture in reserve provides greater confidence when planning grazing rotations, managing feed supplies and making key business decisions.

In this spring edition of Milking the Weather, we look at seasonal conditions across Victoria, the latest soil moisture trends and what they may mean for dairy farm management. We also share practical insights and on-farm experiences from dairy farmers who are adapting to seasonal variability and making the most of the opportunities that spring can bring.

A strong start to the season 

We're heading into spring in a strong position after what could be described as a very good autumn. The rain came when we needed it, pasture growth responded, and feed supply never really became a concern. If we could order a season, this autumn would be in the top 10%. 

Winter also treated us kindly. We got enough moisture to keep pasture growing, but not so much that paddocks got churned up. Mud is our biggest fear, so getting through winter with very little mud was a real win. 

At this stage, the farm is tracking much the same as it was this time last year. Feed cover is strong, stock are performing well and, looking back over the past few months, there isn't much we would've done differently. 

Rethinking chicory 

We still used a couple of sacrifice paddocks over winter, although we've expanded our feed pad and are hoping to reduce the need for them in future years. 

Those paddocks will be going into chicory, which has always been an important part of our system. Chicory is one of my favourite plants because it provides excellent summer feed and can play a useful role in pasture renovation. What has changed is the way we think about its value. 

Through discussions with other farmers, we’ve spent more time looking at the opportunity cost of establishing chicory. It's easy to focus on the tonnes of feed it produces, but less easy to account for the feed you're not growing while waiting for it to establish. The reality is those paddocks can be out of production for potentially three or four months, and that lost grazing has a value too. 

There is still a place for chicory, particularly on runoff country and in pasture renewal programs, but it's made us think more strategically. Although there is extra production in summer, you've got to wait a long time to get it. It's a bit like having a bird in the hand and two in the bush. 

Refining the fertiliser program 

Over the past few years, we've continued refining our fertiliser strategy using results from our own on-farm trials. We're currently applying around 60 to 80 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare alongside double rates of Gibberellic acid, and we've found it delivers comparable pasture responses to heavier urea applications while reducing costs. 

There was plenty of scepticism when we first started looking at it, but the figures have consistently stacked up. For us, if you look at the numbers, it works. The result has been strong pasture growth through winter without pushing fertiliser costs as hard as we might have in the past. 

Lessons from facial eczema 

Facial eczema was probably our biggest learning experience over the past year. 

We were caught out in calves last autumn and learned that waiting until spore counts are high can be too late. Our view now is simple: if you wait for the spore counts to be high, the damage is already done. 

Since then, we've made sure we're prepared. We've secured enough zinc capsules for the coming season and will be much more proactive about using them. Some calves were badly affected before treatment was applied, including a couple that could barely stand, but their recovery was surprisingly quick. Within days they were back on their feet and doing well. 

That experience reinforced the importance of understanding the conditions that trigger outbreaks and acting before problems appear. 

Feed reserves and spring outlook 

Last spring was one of the best we've had for producing conserved feed. We managed three cuts of silage, which isn't something we achieve every year, and we're still carrying around 40 per cent of those reserves into this season. 

That gives us a useful buffer for whatever summer might throw at us. If conditions turn dry, we're in a much stronger position than we would be without that feed sitting in the pit. 

April and November remain the two key months of the year. November rain and April rain are probably the two key months in the year for us because they set up the rest of the season. Looking back, the November rain we received last year was what really drove feed growth and created much of the silage surplus. 

Forecasts for the upcoming spring are mixed, but we remain reasonably positive. We can't control what the weather does, but we can be prepared for it, and at this stage we've got a reasonable amount of optimism around the season. 

Herd performance 

We've made a few small changes to joining dates this year, mainly to tighten up the calving pattern rather than shift it significantly. So far, that hasn't affected production, which is similar to where we were last year. 

Last season we finished about 4% up on production and we're hoping to improve another 2% to 3% this year. Some of that improvement has come from making tougher herd decisions. Over time we've culled cows that weren't contributing enough to the system. 

The cows are milking well, the heifers have settled in nicely and overall herd performance has been very pleasing. 

Trialling teat sealing in heifers 

This year we also tried something different by bringing veterinarians in to carry out teat sealing in our heifers. 

The process itself wasn't as straightforward as we'd hoped. Our facilities weren't ideally set up for it and moving cattle through the system created a few challenges. Looking back, it was definitely a learning experience. 

That said, the results were hard to ignore. We came through with no mastitis cases in the heifers, which was an excellent outcome. We'll make some changes to improve the process next time, but it's certainly something we'll continue to consider. 

Looking ahead 

Overall, we’re very happy with where the farm sits heading into spring. We've got good pasture cover, strong feed reserves and some valuable lessons from the past 12 months that will help guide our decisions going forward. We couldn't be happier with how the season's been to date.  

There's still plenty of season left to play out and a lot will depend on what November delivers, but for now we're well positioned and ready to make the most of whatever opportunities come our way. 

Victorian seasonal climate winter summary and spring outlook 

Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria, Seasonal Risk Agronomist

Winter summary

Winter delivered mixed but generally favourable seasonal conditions across Victoria. During winter, rainfall remained uneven across the state. Northern and central Victoria experienced above-average rainfall, while parts of Gippsland recorded below-average totals. Despite this variability, Victoria recorded a wetter-than-average winter, providing valuable moisture for many farming systems.

Temperatures were above average throughout winter. Warm autumn conditions promoted pasture and crop growth, while winter continued the trend, with Victoria recording exceptionally warm temperatures and well above-average overnight minimum. These conditions generally supported strong pasture and crop growth where rainfall was sufficient, while also reducing the frequency and severity of frosts across many districts.

Climate drivers were closely monitored during winter. Winter saw a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean where the Indian Ocean Dipole remained neutral. Seasonal climate models indicated an increased likelihood of warmer and potentially drier conditions heading into spring, highlighting the importance of ongoing climate risk monitoring and management.

Overall, winter provided generally positive growing conditions for many Victorian farming businesses. The combination of timely rainfall in many regions and consistently warm temperatures supported pasture production and crop growth, although ongoing rainfall deficits in parts of Gippsland continued to present challenges for some farm businesses.

Spring outlook

• A strong El Niño is now established in the Pacific Ocean, with ocean and atmospheric indicators aligned. Historically, this increases the likelihood of a warmer and drier spring across much of Victoria.
• The Indian Ocean has been neutral and delivering moisture but is predicted to develop a +IOD like condition. This would likely reinforce the drier predictions.
• The Bureau of Meteorology and other models forecast a higher chance of below-average rainfall across southern and eastern Australia, including Victoria, through spring.
• Warmer-than-average daytime and overnight temperatures are likely across Victoria, increasing evaporation rates and potentially accelerating pasture maturity.
• The combination of warm temperatures and lower rainfall increases the risk of earlier pasture feed deficits, particularly if spring rainfall is unreliable.
• Spring pasture growth may still begin strongly in many districts due to winter moisture and warmer temperatures, but there is an increased likelihood of growth slowing earlier than normal if dry conditions develop.
• Feed budgeting and maintaining flexibility around silage conservation and supplementary feeding strategies may be important risk-management tools this season.
• To date, the El Nino has had limited influence on rainfall, but historically spring has had the strongest effects.
• Farmers are encouraged to closely monitor seasonal updates as both El Niño and the IOD continue to evolve, as their combined influence could significantly affect spring rainfall outcomes.

Source 1: BoM Long-range weather and climate (www.bom.gov.au/climate). Source 2: Agriculture Victoria Fast Break

Bessiebell, permanent pasture, south west  

The Bessiebelle district experienced a favourable winter, with regular rainfall replenishing soil moisture reserves in June and supporting strong pasture growth. Soil moisture levels remained adequate throughout the season, resulting in good plant available water. Entering spring, soil water reserves have been slightly depleted as a below average rainfall decile in August has not met pasture water requirements.  Continued pasture production will need to be supported by average to above rainfall or the season could be short. 

Find out the current and overall information for  Bessibelle - Soil Moisture Monitoring in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

Foster, permanent pasture, South Gippsland 

The Foster site received regular rainfall throughout winter, helping to maintain good soil moisture levels and support steady pasture growth. Soil water reserves remained throughout the profile, with moisture levels at field capacity across all monitored depths. These conditions have provided ample plant available water. As the district moves into spring, strong soil moisture reserves are expected to support ongoing pasture production and good feed availability, although additional rainfall on already wet soils may increase the potential for runoff. 

Find out the current and overall information for Foster - Soil Moisture Monitoring  in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

Longwarry, perennial pasture, West Gippsland 

At the Longwarry perennial pasture site in West Gippsland, regular rainfall through autumn and winter helped maintain a full soil moisture profile and support strong pasture growth. Current soil moisture levels indicate that the profile is fully replenished, with all monitoring depths from 10 cm to 80 cm at field capacity. This has provided excellent plant available water reserves and reduced the risk of moisture stress. As the district moves through spring, the full soil profile is expected to support continued pasture production and strong feed availability. Further rainfall on already saturated soils may increase the likelihood of runoff. This time last year the soil profiles were only 30%.   

Find out the current and overall information for Longwarry (perennial pasture) - Soil Moisture Monitoring  in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

About Milking the Weather

The Milking the Weather newsletter provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry, 4 times per year (summer, autumn, winter and spring).

Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit author. To view a copy of this licence, visit creative commons.

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