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Take 29 leading economists and ask them about the financial year ahead and you'll find surprising agreement.
Three-quarters of experts who took part in The Conversation's financial-year forecasting survey published this morning expect interest rates to be lower before the middle of next year.
On average, the cut amounts to 0.35 percentage points, followed by another 0.3 in the second half of next year.
If delivered and fully passed on, those cuts would take $335 off the monthly cost of servicing a $600,000 mortgage.
Our panel made the forecasts in the knowledge of the jump in monthly inflation reported last Wednesday. Most left their predictions for 2024–25 unchanged. Some predicted an increase in interest rates this year followed by cuts next year.
The first cut would most likely come before the next election, which is due in May, just as the first increase came before the last election in 2021.
Other things to look for in this morning's survey are lower inflation – the panel expects it to be back within the Reserve Bank's target band by the middle of next year – and even higher home prices. The panel sees no let-up.
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Peter Martin
Economics Editor
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Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation’s expert panel expects the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates two to three times over the next 18 months, with the first cut likely in March.
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Lester Munson, University of Sydney
The president is a stubborn man, but if he were able to annoint a successor, he could salvage a significant amount of his reputation.
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Caroline Leicht, University of Southampton
Joe Biden’s poor debate performance has prompted widespread speculation that the Democrats will seek another nominee for November’s eleciton.
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Renee Carey, Curtin University; Chandnee Ramkissoon, University of Adelaide
Here are some options and what they mean for the health of tradies who cut and install them.
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Steven Roberts, Monash University; Stephanie Wescott, Monash University
Parents need to understand how algorithms work. These can drive misogynistic content towards boys and young men and can make extreme views seem normal.
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Michelle Arrow, Macquarie University; Beth Radulski, La Trobe University; Lisa French, RMIT University; Rachel Williamson, University of Canterbury; Stuart Richards, University of South Australia
This month’s pickings offer three home-grown productions with a stellar lineup of Australian actors.
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Stanislav Roudavski, The University of Melbourne; Alex Holland, The University of Melbourne; Philip Gibbons, Australian National University
Trees are better at designing habitat than we are. Can we use machine learning to get some tips?
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Stuart Khan, University of Sydney
Growing and changing demands for water and the increasing impacts of climate change are adding to the challenge of ensuring everyone has access to a safe and reliable water supply.
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Sambit Bhattacharyya, University of Sussex
The west wants to punish Russia for the war in Ukraine, but there are huge potential downsides.
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Caitlin Macdonald, University of Sydney
100 years in the future, 40-year-old Esther is the first of 47 sleepers to be ‘woken’ from cryogenic suspended animation in an underground bunker. Where are her children?
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Christopher Arnott, Griffith University
You’ve heard of debunking, but what about prebunking? Getting ahead of misinformation can pay off, but it’s not a silver bullet.
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XN Iraki, University of Nairobi
Kenya’s slow economic growth, large educated youth population and limited job opportunities are some of the factors that gave rise to the protests.
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Dennis Wesselbaum, University of Otago
For decades, New Zealand has struggled to substantially improve its productivity levels. But there are key ways the government can address this issue – improving the economic wellbeing of the country.
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Politics + Society
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
On Sunday, Albanese summoned recalcitrant senator Fatima Payman to the Lodge and told her she was suspended from caucus until she accepted caucus discipline.
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Emma Shortis, RMIT University
The pressure on Joe Biden’s candidacy will now be immense. And whether he can turn it around is much less clear now than it was before the debate.
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Jack Anderson, The University of Melbourne
A betting scandal using inside information has rocked UK politics ahead of the July election. But what exactly is inside information and how can it be misused?
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Health + Medicine
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Jon Wardle, Southern Cross University
Several Australians have been hospitalised after consuming ‘mushroom gummies’. This highlights the challenges of regulating products that fall somewhere between a food and a medicine.
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Hazel Keedle, Western Sydney University
Your estimated due date isn’t always accurate but can impact the care you receive.
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Environment + Energy
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Sean Buckley, Edith Cowan University; Luciano Beheregaray, Flinders University; Mark Allen, Murdoch University; Stephen Beatty, Murdoch University
Over millions of years, a stable climate helped create this biodiversity hotspot. Climate change now threatens it.
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Arts + Culture
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Sarah Austin, The University of Melbourne
Rising has great potential to transform the arts ecosystem in Melbourne. But this requires some deep consultation and consideration as it contemplates what the future holds.
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Sasha Grishin, Australian National University
Should a public art gallery exhibit his work, highlighting the fact he was a seriously flawed human being? Or is this to quietly condone domestic violence and paedophilia? I do not know the answer.
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Business + Economy
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John Quiggin, The University of Queensland
On one hand, the government has just waved through one of the biggest banking mergers of the last 20 years. On the other, they’ve been waving the big stick at Australia’s supermarket oligopoly.
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