Take 29 leading economists and ask them about the financial year ahead and you'll find surprising agreement.

Three-quarters of experts who took part in The Conversation's financial-year forecasting survey published this morning expect interest rates to be lower before the middle of next year.

On average, the cut amounts to 0.35 percentage points, followed by another 0.3 in the second half of next year.

If delivered and fully passed on, those cuts would take $335 off the monthly cost of servicing a $600,000 mortgage.

Our panel made the forecasts in the knowledge of the jump in monthly inflation reported last Wednesday. Most left their predictions for 2024–25 unchanged. Some predicted an increase in interest rates this year followed by cuts next year.

The first cut would most likely come before the next election, which is due in May, just as the first increase came before the last election in 2021.

Other things to look for in this morning's survey are lower inflation – the panel expects it to be back within the Reserve Bank's target band by the middle of next year – and even higher home prices. The panel sees no let-up.

Peter Martin

Economics Editor

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Michelle Arrow, Macquarie University; Beth Radulski, La Trobe University; Lisa French, RMIT University; Rachel Williamson, University of Canterbury; Stuart Richards, University of South Australia

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Some of us don’t have high-quality drinking water, and it’s putting public health at risk. How do we deliver universal access?

Stuart Khan, University of Sydney

Growing and changing demands for water and the increasing impacts of climate change are adding to the challenge of ensuring everyone has access to a safe and reliable water supply.

G7 plan to use Russia’s frozen financial assets to help Ukraine fund the war: an economist weighs up the risk and rewards

Sambit Bhattacharyya, University of Sussex

The west wants to punish Russia for the war in Ukraine, but there are huge potential downsides.

‘I had failed to prepare my children for their future’: Alice Robinson’s dystopia raises unsettling ethical questions

Caitlin Macdonald, University of Sydney

100 years in the future, 40-year-old Esther is the first of 47 sleepers to be ‘woken’ from cryogenic suspended animation in an underground bunker. Where are her children?

In a year of global elections, how do we stop the spread of misinformation? ‘Prebunking’ is part of the solution

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You’ve heard of debunking, but what about prebunking? Getting ahead of misinformation can pay off, but it’s not a silver bullet.

Kenya unrest: the deep economic roots that brought Gen-Z onto the streets

XN Iraki, University of Nairobi

Kenya’s slow economic growth, large educated youth population and limited job opportunities are some of the factors that gave rise to the protests.

NZ’s productivity stagnation requires a long-term plan from politicians. Here’s how

Dennis Wesselbaum, University of Otago

For decades, New Zealand has struggled to substantially improve its productivity levels. But there are key ways the government can address this issue – improving the economic wellbeing of the country.

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