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Israel has vowed to completely destroy Hamas in the wake of its gruesome October 7 attacks on Israelis in communities near the Gaza border.
But, as Ian Parmeter writes, wars have unintended consequences. And while Israel wants to prevent Hamas from ever threatening its people again, Parmeter asks if the government has a plan for what happens next.
Parmeter, a former Australian ambassador to Lebanon, puts forth six potential scenarios for how Gaza – and its more than two million people – could be administered after the fighting subsides. There are no good options, he writes.
For example, even if Hamas’ leadership is killed, other low-level members could reconstitute the group. Or another militant group could take its place, and Israel would not be able to control who or what that might be.
Nor would it be feasible to have Hamas’ rivals in the West Bank take charge, or an outside force, say, from the UN or Arab countries in the region.
Parmeter says Israel has long believed the threat from Gaza could be contained, but with a rising population living amid a worsening humanitarian and economic crisis, this is no longer the case.
It remains to be seen what Israel will do over the coming weeks – and in the long term.
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Justin Bergman
International Affairs Editor
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Ian Parmeter, Australian National University
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Albert Van Dijk, Australian National University; Hylke Beck, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology; Pablo Rozas Larraondo, Australian National University
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Gwilym Croucher, The University of Melbourne; Christopher Ziguras, The University of Melbourne
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Paul Griffin, The University of Queensland
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