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The UK election is now in full swing. The polls may all point in one direction but the stakes remain incredibly high and events so far show that this contest is far from a done deal for Labour.
We think readers like you would value a distillation of the essentials as this election picks up pace. So welcome to the first of our weekly newsletters on the 2024 election. Every Friday afternoon of the campaign and beyond, we’ll be bringing you an evidence-based take on the key developments of the week and a reality check on the promises party leaders have made.
We don’t do personality politics here at The Conversation – we know you don’t have the taste for it. As senior politics editor for The Conversation UK, I’m often asked if I have a bias and my answer is usually: yes, towards really good democracy. So we seek to add value with our coverage in a way that helps you stay informed without bombarding you with political noise you don’t need or want. We’ll be checking facts, assessing the pros and cons of the pledges being made and digging out the research evidence that helps explain what’s really going on.
This first newsletter is being sent to you as a subscriber of The Conversation UK’s daily bulletin. If you’d like to continue receiving it every Friday from next week, you can subscribe here.
Our first election newsletter features some revealing research on what happens to constituency contests when an MP decides to stand down. This is of great significance in 2024 because a huge number of MPs are retiring. There were 118 at the last count —many of whom announced their departure in the past 48 hours alone. Crucially, they include more than 75 Conservatives or former Conservatives who have been suspended from the party.
Alia Middleton, an expert in the kind of nitty gritty politics that so often ends up being decisive in British elections, has discovered that these seats are even more vulnerable than those in which the MP is fighting for another term. And in an electoral environment in which the definition of a marginal seat stretches up to majorities of 15,000 or more, the seats vacated in 2024 therefore pose a huge electoral threat to Rishi Sunak.
Have a look at Middleton’s work to see how bad things really are as we continue to watch the number of MPs standing down tick upwards.
A picture will also soon emerge of how the media is influencing the ebb and flow of party fortunes. This year is different in this respect, too, because it’s the first election to include the unabashedly partisan GB News. The controversial rightwing TV channel has clashed multiple times with broadcast regulator Ofcom over its approach to reporting politics — and that was well before we entered an official campaign, when strict impartiality rules are in place. So there may be trouble ahead for Nigel Farage and his fellow GB News presenters.
And finally, ever since Sunak made the surprise decision to hold an election in the summer, speculation has been rife that he is hoping to capitalise on the good mood that will inevitably surround the Euros football tournament, happening at the same time. Is there any evidence that a rally-round-the-flag effect could give Sunak a much needed poll boost? I asked Daniel Fitzpatrick to review the evidence, and he fears Sunak may be about to score an own goal.
We hope these stories give you a sense of how things stand after the opening days of the campaign. There’s lots more to come so sign up for our weekly digest, straight to your inbox, every Friday afternoon.
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