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There is a growing view in Canberra that Prime Minister Scott Morrison could go to the polls later this year.
This means every chance we have to measure voter sentiment on a grand scale takes on even greater significance.
Over the weekend, the residents of Upper Hunter voted in a NSW state byelection. This delivered a clear win to the National Party and a disastrous drop in Labor’s vote, which likely means the end of Jodi McKay’s time as state opposition leader. But the repercussions are being felt well beyond Macquarie Street.
Australian National University professor Mark Kenny today writes on what the vote reveals for federal Labor’s prospects and Anthony Albanese’s leadership.
With dissident MP Joel Fitzgibbon piping up (again), continued grief over the party’s climate policy as well as the distractions of COVID, things are more than complicated for the federal opposition leader.
As Kenny writes, if the pandemic hadn’t already “dented” Labor’s confidence going into a federal vote, the weekend’s byelection “must surely have done so”.
And that’s before we get to a sobering history lesson courtesy of John Howard.
Providing truthful journalism from experts is a cause to get behind now – and there’s no better day to do that than today. If you’ve already donated to our 2021 donations campaign, thank you! If you haven’t yet, please consider giving today. If you read our articles with interest, and value our public service bringing the knowledge of experts to the world, we hope you will give what you can.
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Judith Ireland
Deputy Editor, Politics + Society
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Lukas Coch/AAP
Mark Kenny, Australian National University
Labor's primary vote tanked on the weekend, buoying Scott Morrison’s hopes of a strong Coalition victory at the next federal election.
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AAP Image/ LUIS ASCUI
C Raina MacIntyre, UNSW
In the end, the best protection is mass vaccination and ensuring as many people as possible are fully vaccinated as quickly as possible.
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Shutterstock
Belinda van Heerwaarden, The University of Melbourne; Ary Hoffmann, The University of Melbourne
New findings suggest the loss of fertility at high temperatures is a major threat to the survival of some species.
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Shutterstock
Christian Downie, Australian National University
The opportunity won’t last forever. Countries that move first will gain an advantage in new industries, technologies and export markets. Those that wait may never catch up.
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Nicholas Scott, University of Sydney; Jesse van de Sande, University of Sydney
A galaxy 320 million light-years away has a surprisingly similar structure to the Milky Way, suggesting our galaxy isn't as unique as it once seemed to astronomers.
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Shutterstock
Sue Thomson, Australian Council for Educational Research
Students with expert maths teachers scored significantly higher on an international maths test than any other group. But a student's level of advantage also affects assessment scores.
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Shutterstock
Sarah Hetrick, University of Auckland; Joanne McKenzie, Monash University; Nick Meader, University of York; Sally Merry, University of Auckland
Our new Cochrane review found antidepressants led to only small improvements in depression symptoms on average compared with placebo.
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Science + Technology
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Kelly Lewis, Queensland University of Technology
If Palestinians' freedom of expression is taken away online, this risks further obscuring their ongoing struggle.
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Tanya Hill, Museums Victoria
This Wednesday night, everywhere in Australia will have a box seat for a spectacular total eclipse of the Moon.
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Business + Economy
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Lee Moerman, University of Wollongong; Sandra van der Laan, University of Sydney
In the 1700s 'burial clubs' emerged in response to fears of funeral poverty. These schemes persist today — along with marketing targeting the poor and vulnerable.
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Arts + Culture
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Beth Spacey, The University of Queensland
When it came to making sense of lunar eclipses, medieval Christians did not necessarily resort to superstition, magicians, and moon-eating monsters.
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Tiziana Ferrero-Regis, Queensland University of Technology
The fashion industry was already experimenting with technology on the catwalk, from drones to 3D glasses. Then along came the pandemic.
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Politics + Society
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Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato
Neither Israel nor Hamas will listen to New Zealand directly, but there is still more parliament can do to promote international peace efforts.
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Richard Baka, Victoria University
No sightseeing, cheering, singing or (at least officially) sex. This is what an Olympic Games during a pandemic could look like.
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Adrian Beaumont, The University of Melbourne
In the latest release of polls, the Morrison government also leads Albanese's Labor when it comes to economic management.
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