Volume 17, Issue 2: Winter 2026      

Welcome to the winter edition of Milking the Weather

Farmers successfully managing seasonal risk

Bec Cameron, Dairy Industry Development Officer, Agriculture Victoria

Winter can bring cooler, wetter conditions shaping pasture growth and daily routines, while growth rates typically slow through the colder months. Soil moisture and temperature will still play a big role in how well pastures tick along and how long feed lasts. It’s also the time of year when simple things matter, keeping both people and cows warm and dry, and managing those darker, colder mornings and evenings at milking.

In this issue of Milking the Weather  north-eastern farmers reflect on what worked well through summer, and share how those experiences are shaping plans for the months ahead. We also look at the winter seasonal outlook, along with an update on soil moisture levels across 2 dryland sites in Victoria to help build a clearer picture of current conditions and support feed planning decisions.

A great summer

Summer started well for us, with good rainfall in November, before turning very dry through December and January. We relied heavily on irrigation during that period, going through a lot of water and needing to purchase additional water. That meant significant pressure on input costs, with water prices continuing to rise. We were constantly watching the forecast, waiting for the next rainfall event.

Rain finally came towards the end of February and into March, with an initial rain event of 10-15mm, then a major follow up of 84 mm. That rainfall set us up well and kick-started our autumn pastures earlier than usual. The early rain also brought a flush of weeds, so we made the decision to spray out about half of our autumn pasture area and oversowed it (66 hectares). The remaining paddocks were in good condition, so we continued irrigating those once they struck (44 hectares). This gave us valuable early feed.

Building that early feed wedge allowed us to take the pressure off summer pastures and gave us some flexibility. Just recently we received 38 mm of rain at the start of June, which meant we could move cows back onto summer pasture paddocks we had held in reserve. That helped protect the annual pastures, particularly with softer ground conditions.

Overall, the season has come together well. We’ve sown around 30 hectares of oats and 80 hectares of wheat. We started sowing the oats 2 April. The oats are already a foot tall and beginning to fall over in some areas. The wheat is also looking good.

At the moment, we’re weighing up whether to graze the oats or cut them for silage. The ground is still too soft, so we’ll need a run of dry weather before making that call. Either way, we’ve got a good amount of feed in front of us, and we are heading into winter in a strong position.

Pasture and feed management

Our approach to pasture this autumn has been proactive. As stated earlier we sprayed out around half our autumn pastures and oversowed approximately 66 hectares. Combined with consistent irrigation this has given us a solid feed base leading into winter.

Cows are in very good condition. We haven’t made excess fodder, but we’ve put away enough hay to carry us through to spring. With the crops we have now, we’re also confident of producing additional hay, which should strengthen our feed reserves further.

At this stage, feed availability isn’t our main concern - water is.

Irrigation and water risk

Water has become the biggest pressure point in the system. Reservoir levels at Eildon are sitting around 40%, although recent rainfall in the catchments may improve that situation. Managing water now requires a much more strategic approach. With prices as high as they’ve been, it’s no longer just an input; it’s a major business decision. We’re continuously watching the market and weighing up when to buy. We’re currently working with the bank to assess whether it makes sense to borrow funds and purchase water if prices ease. Despite recent rain, we still need a significant volume of water for next season.

Strategy moving forward

We’ve been working with local field services to plan ahead and improve how we use water across the farm. One of the key changes will be our approach to summer pasture. The plan is to spray out selected summer paddocks and sow more efficient forage crops, such as millet and sorghum. The aim is to increase dry matter production per megalitre of water.

Traditional summer pastures tend to lose efficiency during seasonal transitions and can become dominated by couch grass and other weeds. Irrigating those pastures is not always the best use of water, so we’re looking to shift towards crops that deliver more efficient production per megalitre of water.

Alongside this, we’re aiming to increase our cow numbers from around 300 to 350 head. We’ve also made the decision to sell our beef enterprise. This reduces workload and frees up feed, allowing us to focus more directly on dairy. We’ll still raise a small number of steers, but we’re not carrying the same level of replacements as before.

Farm setup for winter

The farm is well prepared for wet conditions. We’ve invested in maintaining good tracks and have a feed pad available if conditions deteriorate. This comes from experience, particularly following the very wet winter in 2016 when paddock damage was significant. Having those systems in place now gives us confidence we can manage through wet periods without compromising pasture.

As we have discussed we also make a point of locking up some paddocks ahead of winter. These act as a buffer, giving us somewhere to move cows when conditions are too soft elsewhere.

Risks and outlook

There are no major risks heading into winter beyond extreme weather events. The bigger uncertainty sits around spring conditions, particularly if El Niño leads to a drier period. A dry spring would impact crop yields and could also drive water prices higher again. Both will play a role in how the next season unfolds.

Herd and animal health

Calving has generally gone well, with good calf health and minimal issues overall. We did see an increase in milk fever this season, which may have been linked to carryover lead feed, although we’re still reviewing that. Cows responded well to treatment, and the issue was managed with no ongoing health impacts.

We’ve also reduced calf numbers by selling surplus animals. This has eased pressure on feed and labour. After a period of using sexed semen and increasing replacement numbers, we’ve returned to conventional semen to better match herd requirements.

Costs and pressures

Input costs have continued to rise, particularly water, fuel and fertiliser. Water has been the most significant cost this year and has had the greatest impact on our margins. While we’ve managed the situation so far, sustained high input costs would be challenging and remain a key risk moving forward.

Despite a dry summer, the season has come together well, with early decisions around pasture, feed and irrigation setting us up heading into winter. Planning ahead, managing water strategically and maintaining flexibility in grazing have been key, along with having backup paddocks for wet conditions. Sticking to a consistent system has proven more effective than reacting to forecasts.

Water cost and availability remain the biggest challenge, but we’re entering winter in a strong position with good feed reserves and a clear plan ahead.

Victorian seasonal climate autumn summary and winter outlook 

Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria, Seasonal Risk Agronomist

Autumn 2026 summary

Rainfall through autumn was variable. Northern Victoria was particularly wetter, with a good break in March, which decreased the amount of start-up irrigation. A warmer and drier April (parts of the Murray Valley received less than 10 mm) resulted in very stressed pasture before average May rainfall arrived. The south west received a closer to average break in April with good follow up rain in May.

Profiles are starting to fill with some runoff occurring. Gippsland has been most variable with the Macalister district breaking in March followed by West Gippsland later than average in April, and central coastal Gippsland breaking later than average in May. The Macalister had poor follow up in April with less than 10 mm falling putting pressure on germinating pastures. Warmer than average autumn increased growth where moisture was available to sustain it, but increased evaporation and led to poorer establishment where moisture was more marginal.

Winter 2026 outlook

Rainfall across much of Victoria is predicted to have a higher chance of being below average, with a 60–80% chance of reduced totals particularly in northern Victoria. Some areas of coastal west Gippsland and far East Gippsland are predicted to have stronger odds of rainfall being much lower. For June specifically, the prediction is for wetter to average except in far East Gippsland. Overall, conditions point toward a drier-than-average winter, although rainfall outcomes may still vary at the local level.

Temperatures are expected to be above average across Victoria, with a greater than 80% chance of warmer-than-usual daytime conditions in most areas. There is a strong likelihood of unusually warm days, across the state. Overnight temperatures are also likely to be above average with a 70% chance of above average, with an increased chance of unusually warm nights across Victoria.

The Pacific Ocean shows a gradual shift towards a potentially drier phase, with central Pacific temperatures now arriving at an El Niño stage. A strongly negative SOI suggests the atmosphere is in the early stages of coupling with the ocean pattern, though cloud and winds along the equator are yet to make a move. The Indian Ocean is currently exhibiting a wetter, rather than a drier pattern but most models predict a drier condition positive Indian Ocean Dipole for spring.

How this season plays out will depend on whether the ocean and atmosphere strongly couple together and whether oceans cool off to the north of Australia. How our nemesis high pressure behaves over winter could also be problematic, irrespective of how the tropical oceans turn out. Many areas will be reliant on timely winter rainfall events to maintain production and to run off into farm dams. 

Source 1: BoM Long-range weather and climate (www.bom.gov.au/climate). Source 2: Agriculture Victoria Fast Break

Terang permanent pasture, south west summary  

At the Terang permanent pasture site, soils entered autumn relatively dry following decile 1 summer rainfall and limited moisture remaining deeper in the profile. With autumn rainfall recorded at 140.6 mm the soil profile began to recharge. By late autumn, there was an overall improvement in plant available water in the soil profile. The soil is at 100% and provides opportunities for runoff into dams with continued rainfall on saturated soil and sustain pasture growth into the season ahead.

Finf out the current and overall, soil moisture data for the Terang site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

Yarram prairie grass pasture, West Gippsland 

Autumn rainfall was consistent with small amounts but nothing above 10 mm for a day had limited infiltration. Rainfall in March- May with 91.4 mm was good for topsoil and supported a response in pasture growth. However, the remaining soil moisture deficit indicates that the profile has only partially refilled, with subsoil moisture still below optimum.

Looking ahead to winter, soil moisture conditions are considered moderate but somewhat vulnerable and at a similar percentage to this time last year. While recent rainfall has reduced immediate feed pressure, continued pasture growth will rely on additional follow-up rain. Maintaining ground cover and careful grazing management will be important but above average rain is required to continue recharging the soil profile.

Find out the current and overall, soil moisture data for the Yarram pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

About Milking the Weather

The Milking the Weather newsletter provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry, 4 times per year (summer, autumn, winter and spring).

Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit author. To view a copy of this licence, visit creative commons.

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