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We’ve all seen the brutal polling that cornered the Conservatives into replacing their leader just a few weeks into her tenure. Some showed losses of more than 200 seats during Liz Truss’s brief premiership.
But polls provide a snapshot rather than a prediction. They show you what would happen if an election were held tomorrow rather than what will happen at the next election in a few years time. Paul Whiteley has sought to go a step further, crunching 70 years of data to see how accurately we can predict the results of an election held in May 2024 – widely seen as a likely date for the next vote.
The seats-votes model he uses in this analysis has proved remarkably accurate at predicting election results over the decades – though Sunak may wish it were otherwise once he reads the results.
BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, the latest omicron variants, are spreading quickly. But how worried should we be? We put the three most essential questions to an expert. And some heartwarming research from the animal kingdom shows friendship runs
deep for chimps and gorillas.
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Laura Hood
Politics Editor, Assistant Editor
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Alamy/Reuters
Paul Whiteley, University of Essex
Polling only provides a snapshot of the current moment but modelling across decades can help us predict the next election result.
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Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock
Manal Mohammed, University of Westminster
Two new omicron subvariants, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 could lead to another COVID surge. Here’s what we know so far.
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Chimpanzees are highly social but recent research suggests they can be with gorillas too.
apple2499/Shutterstock
Chris Young, Nottingham Trent University
Friendships between these two very different primates likely outlasted your promise to be best buds forever with your school classmates.
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Ukraine Invasion
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Stefan Wolff, University of Birmingham
Russia’s decision to pull out of the life-saving grain deal has already caused a spike in the global price of wheat and corn.
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Matthew Sussex, Australian National University
There are 3 reasons why we shouldn’t discount the possibility that defeat in Ukraine might make the Kremlin’s edifice crumble.
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Politics + Society
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Anthony Pereira, King's College London
A very tight election victory, a divided country and an economy in tatters.
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Georgios Giannakopoulos, King's College London
The Ottoman empire once stretched from Vienna to Cairo, an expert explains its power.
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Arts + Culture
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Zohar Hadromi Allouche, Trinity College Dublin; S. Jonathon O'Donnell, Queen's University Belfast
Religious belief in the devil may have declined, but western demons are alive and well in popular culture and contemporary politics.
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Adam Behr, Newcastle University
HIs outrageous talent was matched by a personal life marked by bigamy, violence, drugs, alcohol and his 1958 marriage to his 13-year-old cousin.
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Business + Economy
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Jannine Poletti-Hughes, University of Liverpool
Voluntary regulation has helped company boards become more diverse but has been more successful in certain countries.
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Environment
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Chris Hilson, University of Reading
A legal expert explains how climate activists could use the government’s own legislation to their advantage.
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Shantanu Mullick, Coventry University; Erica van Herpen, Wageningen University; Sebastian Schuster, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment & Energy
People tend to waste more of their meals when buying the ingredients from shops, our survey showed.
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Health
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Amy Clair, University of Essex; Emma Baker, University of Adelaide
When people’s homes became cold, their risk of severe mental distress significantly increased.
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Podcasts
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Gemma Ware, The Conversation
Listen to the first episode of Discovery, a new series available via The Conversation Weekly podcast, telling the stories of fascinating new research discoveries from around the world.
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