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Just at the moment, the economy is looking great. On Thursday we learned that job vacancies climbed to a scarcely believable 480,000 in May, a figure that’s so high it is within cooee of the 548,100 Australians unemployed – something that’s never happened before.
But in the view of the 22-person expert panel assembled by The Conversation at the start of the new financial year, this is as good as it’s going to get.
Our panel sees unemployment edging back up, and inflation jumping to 7.1% as the Reserve Bank pushes interest rates ever higher in a bid to restrain it.
The forecasts say the bank won’t stop until its cash rate has climbed from 0.85% to 3.1%, by which point mortgage rates will approach 5.5%, where they haven’t been since the 2010-12 resources boom.
If that happens, it will add about $600 to the monthly cost of servicing a $500,000 mortgage, and $1,000 to the cost of servicing a $800,000 mortgage.
In good news for some, the panel expects home prices to slide.
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Peter Martin
Section Editor: Business + Economy
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Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The panel believes Australia will avoid a recession the year ahead, but is much less certain about the United States. It expects real wages to go backwards and economic growth to sink.
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Andrew Macintosh, Australian National University; Don Butler, Australian National University; Megan C Evans, UNSW Sydney
Labor has promised a 43% cut in Australia’s emissions by 2030 and a high-integrity carbon credit market is vital to reaching this goal.
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Robyn Gulliver, The University of Queensland
Politicians may be better served addressing the message, rather than attacking the messengers.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
David Pocock, the progressive independent who broke the Liberals’ stranglehold on one of the two ACT Senate seats, wouldn’t have expected to find himself allied with Pauline Hanson before even being sworn in
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Mia Martin Hobbs, Deakin University
Soldier atrocities are shaped by our society, culture, and political fabric. Preventing them will require a comprehensive rethinking of policies, attitudes, and approaches to war.
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Esmé Louise James, The University of Melbourne
The Hellfire Club in Stranger Things is a school DnD club – but the real Hellfire Club from history which it’s based upon is far more scandalous and notorious.
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Politics + Society
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Hugh White, Australian National University
Ending maritime patrols in waters near China may be a necessary compromise with Beijing’s rising power.
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Suze Wilson, Massey University
Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon’s response shows he is willing to set aside personal values for what is politically expedient, choosing pragmatism over idealism.
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Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Monash University; Ellen Reeves, Monash University; Marie Segrave, Monash University; Sandra Walklate, University of Liverpool
The findings are a stark reminder men’s violence against women is a national crisis and system reform is urgent.
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Mary Anne Kenny, Murdoch University; Ali Reza Yunespour, The University of Melbourne; Carol Grech, University of South Australia; Nicholas Procter, University of South Australia
Our report sets out practical reforms that can be implemented relatively simply, within existing legislative provisions and with only minimal changes to policy and regulations.
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Health + Medicine
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Jessica Kaufman, Murdoch Children's Research Institute; Margie Danchin, Murdoch Children's Research Institute
The government’s new $11 million winter COVID and flu vaccine ad campaign gets some things right, but it doesn’t connect on an emotional level or address concerns about common side effects.
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Anna Price, Murdoch Children's Research Institute; Ashikin Mohd Nordin, Royal Children's Hospital; Billy Garvey, Murdoch Children's Research Institute; Sylvie Picker-Minh, Royal Children's Hospital; Valerie Sung, Murdoch Children's Research Institute
Advice to put your baby down ‘drowsy but awake’ is an attempt to form good sleep associations.
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Science + Technology
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Dennis B Desmond, University of the Sunshine Coast
Women taking precautions to conceal their identities while seeking reproductive advice is akin to spies using tradecraft to avoid enemy agents.
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Ritesh Chugh, CQUniversity Australia
Our GoPros tend to fare relatively well submerged underwater — so why isn’t it the same with our smartphones?
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Education
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Ken Purnell, CQUniversity Australia
One teacher together with 25 kids in a classroom may no longer work as the norm for Australian schools.
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Helen Stavrou, Charles Sturt University; Brendon Hyndman, Charles Sturt University; Jennifer Munday, Charles Sturt University
It takes time and sustained effort to learn a language. Students need to find enjoyment to sustain their learning – and that’s how songs can make a difference.
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Business + Economy
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Mona Nikidehaghani, University of Wollongong; Michael Mehmet, University of Wollongong
Instead of applying for 20 jobs a month, from Monday July 4 Australians on JobSeeker payments will have to earn 100 points a month. So what will you actually need to do?
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Cranlana Centre for Ethical Leadership at Monash University
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Auckland, New Zealand
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