Nau mai, haere mai.

“So here it is, merry Christmas, everybody’s having fun”, as Slade sang way back in 1973, and which has been an ear worm at this time of year ever since. According to Alison Blair, the song was actually a response to particularly tough times during that British winter – so it still resonates today.

Whether the government and finance minister are having fun right now is another matter. As predicted, yesterday’s half-yearly fiscal update from the Treasury confirmed a sluggish economy, poor productivity, a low tax take and longer-term deificts.

On the other hand, economist Stephen Hickson writes, there are glimmers of optimism amid the general gloom. Unemployment (while likely to rise) won’t hit the peaks of the post-GFC era. And interest rate declines will take some pressure off household budgets. A recovery is likely, albeit on the mild side.

So, in the spirit of cautious optimism, we wish you all the best for the festive season ahead. And thank you for valuing and supporting our work during what has been a tough year for local media organisations in general.

Thanks also to all our valued authors from every New Zealand university, without whom we could not publish the kind of evidence-based and impartial journalism that helps constructive democratic debate and discussion to thrive.

This weekly newsletter will take a break, too. But if you’re not already subscribed, you can sign up for the daily Australia & New Zealand edition here. In the meantime, ngā mihi o te Kirihimete me te Tau Hou – merry Christmas and happy New Year to you all.

Finlay Macdonald

New Zealand Editor

The fiscal update is no Christmas present for the government – but signs of a slow recovery are there

Stephen Hickson, University of Canterbury

Treasury’s half year update tells the story of a sluggish economy and weaker tax take. While 2025 could be the year New Zealand’s economic fortunes lift, it depends on a number of factors.

Glam tidings of joy: how Slade made Merry Xmas Everybody a seasonal hit for the ages

Alison Blair, University of Otago

Released during the grim British winter of 1973, the song was written to lift people’s spirits during tough times, and has become a classic of the genre. This year, it seems more relevant than ever.

NZ’s government may ask the public to underwrite the risk of fossil fuel exploration – this could be unlawful

Nathan Cooper, University of Waikato

Subsidising fossil fuel exploration seems contrary to New Zealand’s international commitment to phase out incentives for the industry. It also erodes human rights to a healthy environment.

Superpower rivalry is making Pacific aid a bargaining chip – vulnerable island nations still lose out

Sione Tekiteki, Auckland University of Technology

The US and Australia are increasingly attaching defence and security conditions to aid for Pacific nations – but that aid is not seeing any real progress on development goals.

A new treaty could prevent some misappropriation of Māori and Indigenous design – and shouldn’t be ignored

Jessica C Lai, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

In 2024, two treaties were signed to protect the rights of Indigenous groups. But the second one, signed in November with little fanfare, is the one that could protect Māori knowledge and design.

From ‘ghost guns’ to gangs, 5 lessons from Canada for NZ firearms reform

Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato

Canada has grappled with similar firearms problems to New Zealand. In some areas it has made more progress, but even its backward steps provide valuable lessons.

Deliberate disinformation campaigns are a public health risk – but NZ has no effective strategy to deal with it

Helen Petousis-Harris, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Studies have repeatedly shown false claims spread on social media and influence public perceptions, to the detriment of public health. But strategies to combat disinformation remain elusive.

From our foreign editions

Consider The Turkey: philosopher’s new book might put you off your festive bird – and that’s exactly what he would want

Benjamin Curtis, Nottingham Trent University

Peter Singer’s slim volume is designed to educate us about how turkeys treated, and it doesn’t make for pleasant reading.

Memo to Rupert Murdoch: now is the time to sell Fox News

Rodney Tiffen, University of Sydney

Selling the right-wing news network might cool the family tensions, and it would capitalise on the network’s market value.

International Criminal Court goes after Myanmar military chief after nearly five years of war

Alan Reid, University of Bradford

Since 2021, Myanmar has descended into civil war, repression, poverty and economic turmoil.

Why does red wine cause headaches? Our research points to a compound found in the grapes’ skin

Andrew Waterhouse, University of California, Davis; Apramita Devi, University of California, Davis

Opt for a lighter, cheaper red wine if you’re trying to dodge a headache this holiday season.

5 things to know before boarding your dog or cat this summer

Melissa Starling, University of Sydney

Boarding facilities during peak periods can stressful environments for dogs and cats. Some may not be suited to it at all.

Why you should avoid doing the exact same workout everyday if you want to get fit

Dan Gordon, Anglia Ruskin University; Jonathan Melville, Anglia Ruskin University; Ruby Cain, Anglia Ruskin University

If we don’t challenge our body enough, it will stop adapting.

Ebola: how a vaccine turned a terrifying virus into a preventable disease

Yap Boum, Mbarara University of Science and Technology

Sierra Leone was one of three countries ravaged by the Ebola epidemic 10 years ago. A national vaccine campaign is a big step towards preventing future outbreaks.

The ten best novels of 2024 – according to literary experts

Manjeet Ridon, De Montfort University; Alice Kelly, University of Warwick; Ankhi Mukherjee, University of Oxford; Debra Benita Shaw, University of East London; Edward Sugden, King's College London; Emily Zobel Marshall, Leeds Beckett University; Jane McBride, University of Galway; Orlaith Darling, University College Dublin; Sarah Annes Brown, Anglia Ruskin University; Scarlett Baron, UCL

These are the ten books that made the most lasting impression on our expert reviewers