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To hear some of the immediate reactions to Tuesday night’s budget, you would be forgiven for thinking the treasurer had reignited inflation and was about to send interest rates still higher.
No longer. Before Thursday, money markets were pricing in a small (5%) chance of an interest rate increase this year.
Following the release of the latest employment figures at lunchtime on Thursday, though, they are pricing in a 50% chance of a cut.
Unemployment and underemployment ticked up in April. Deutsche Bank penned a note to clients headed “Australia’s labour market is cracking”.
It’s a sentiment endorsed by Aruna Sathanapally a former NSW Treasury official who has headed the Grattan Institute since February.
She writes this morning there’s a very good reason why the extra spending in Jim Chalmers’ third budget won’t reignite inflation – working households are increasingly likely to be unemployed, increasingly likely to be working fewer hours, and increasingly less likely to spend.
It’s the “sad truth” at the heart of the budget.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s budget reply speech last night promised lower immigration, something that would itself cut recorded economic growth, even if it left growth per person unchanged (and presumably going backwards as it has been for the past year).
In her analysis piece, Michelle Grattan assesses Dutton’s alternative vision for the country, with a focus on the “electorally emotive issues of housing and immigration”.
“The Dutton pitch on immigration will likely go down well with many voters,” she writes. “But there are quite a few questions the opposition will have to answer in coming days as the experts dissect his proposal.”
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Peter Martin
Economics Editor
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Aruna Sathanapally, Grattan Institute
In normal times, a boost in government spending would boost inflation. The budget papers show these are not normal times.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
In his budget reply on Thursday night, Dutton tapped into the electorally emotive issues of housing and immigration with the new measures he put forward.
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Alison Reeve, Grattan Institute
Without a green energy transition Australia won’t meet its emissions reductions promises. But despite punching above its weight for years, the electricity sector isn’t transforming quickly enough.
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Lisa M. Given, RMIT University; Sarah Polkinghorne, RMIT University
More than 40,000 people petitioned to reverse Cumberland City Council’s book ban, showing the power of collective action against censorship.
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Alexander Howard, University of Sydney
The culture wars have been around forever, but keep taking new forms, and US variants threaten to spill over to Australia – as seen in the recent (overturned) ban on same-sex parenting books in Sydney.
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Michael Toomey, University of Glasgow
Russia is already capitalising on the situation, while government ministers are blaming the media for spreading ‘hate’.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
A Coalition government would drastically slash migration as its main way of freeing up more than 100,000 homes over five years, Opposition leader Peter Dutton has promised in his budget reply.
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Nicole George, The University of Queensland
Four people have been killed in civil unrest in New Caledonia’s capital, Noumea. People on the ground say the crisis isn’t just political.
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Timothy J. Ralph, Macquarie University; Eman Ghoneim, University of North Carolina Wilmington; Suzanne Onstine, University of Memphis
Why build pyramids in the desert? A centuries-old puzzle may be answered by the slow wandering of the Nile.
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Sarah Diepstraten, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute; Terry Boyle, University of South Australia
That depends on a number of factors, including the cancer you had initially, as well as your genes, environment and lifestyle.
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Yolanda van Heezik, University of Otago; Christopher K. Woolley, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington; Jacqueline Theis, University of Otago; Maibritt Pedersen Zari, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
The majority of 25 surveyed developments around New Zealand lacked healthy, ecologically meaningful vegetation. Applying biodiversity targets for medium-density housing could turn this around.
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Politics + Society
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Rob Nicholls, University of Sydney; Terry Flew, University of Sydney
A new parliamentary committee will look into how social media operates in Australia, including how children access it. Regulating the industry won’t be easy.
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Ryan Storr, Swinburne University of Technology; Carleigh Yeomans, Swinburne University of Technology; Kath Albury, Swinburne University of Technology
Young LGBTQI+ people are much less likely to play sport than the broader population, new Australian research has revealed.
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Health + Medicine
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Bridget Haire, UNSW Sydney
Funding announced in this week’s federal budget moves Australia closer to eliminating HIV.
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Science + Technology
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Brad Elphinstone, Swinburne University of Technology
Genomic research stands to help develop new medical treatments – and we need donations of lots of data for this to work. But people don’t want data on their genes to be exploited for profit.
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Business + Economy
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John Quiggin, The University of Queensland
Many of the party’s more ambitious proposals – like free cancer treatment and dental care for pensioners – were abandoned after the 2019 election, and have not resurfaced.
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Alexandra Allen-Franks, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
Pop-ups and limited-release menus are just some of the ways international businesses maintain their New Zealand trademarks for decades.
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