Nau mai, haere mai.

Some government budgets go down in history – Arnold Nordmeyer’s 1958 “Black Budget” and Ruth Richardson’s 1991 “Mother of all Budgets” spring to mind – but most are quickly lost to time and fading memory. Tomorrow, finance minister Nicola Willis has her first shot at immortality.

Much of the debate so far has revolved around the coalition’s promised tax cuts, how they’ll be funded, and whether they’ll add to existing inflationary pressures. So, we can expect Willis to focus on the savings generated by deep job cuts to government departments, theoretically being passed on to New Zealand’s “squeezed middle”.

Whether this, or any other spending priorities unveiled in the budget, are the circuit breaker this coalition needs won’t be immediately obvious. But as Richard Shaw argues today, the budget is the first big opportunity to convince the country that Willis’ government has a plan.

“Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s taste for regularly reporting on milestones is tactical, not strategic,” he writes. “You can’t tell much of a story about milestones, so one of Willis’ most important jobs will be to lay out the government’s overarching vision.”

That’s challenging, however, as the way this coalition has worked so far has meant National and Luxon have struggled to own their own narrative, with the minor parties breathing much of the available political oxygen. National will be wanting to put its own stamp on things.

But ACT and NZ First must be happy with the budget, too. “So there is plenty riding on Nicola Willis’ big moment tomorrow, "Shaw writes. "Getting the numbers right is important. Telling a compelling story is crucial.”

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