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There are always more ways than one to slice and dice an election result. In the case of Reform’s byelection win in Runcorn and Helsby last night, you could say that it only squeaked home by six votes and call it a close race. But you could also look at the size of the majority it overturned and call it a massive blow. Labour won that seat by 14,696 votes in a general election held less than a year ago. Now it has handed the seat to Nigel Farage, who adds a fifth MP in the form of Sarah Pochin to his ranks – Reform’s first woman in parliament.
Jon Tonge wrote this morning that the battle for this seat, and the campaign tactics Farage used, show that he is learning as he goes.
Arguably, something even more seismic has happened in England’s mayoral contests. Andrea Jenkyns’ victory in Greater Lincolnshire and Luke Campbell’s win in Hull and East Yorkshire put Reform into government positions for the very first time. As the first members of the anti-establishment party to cross into the establishment proper, their performance in the job could prove a first major test for whether Reform is capable of running administrations as well as criticising them from the sidelines.
As Alex Nurse found when he mined Jenkyns’ manifesto, she’s proposing to introduce a DOGE Lincolnshire, following Elon Musk’s lead on government “efficiencies”. But she’ll find that mayors, more than any other government officials, have to learn how to play nicely with others. And no offence to Andrea, but that’s hardly her brand (she’d already stormed out of a Sky News interview within moments of taking office). Mayors are powerful people but they have to have a good working relationship with central government to secure funding. And for the first time, Reform figures will be accountable if promises made don’t turn into promises kept.
Counts are still ongoing but it was clearly Reform’s night there, too. It has taken control of county councils for the first time and has added hundreds of councillors to its ranks. Again, here, we’ll soon find out if Reform is really interested in fixing potholes, making arrangements for social care and ensuring buses run on time, as well as the million other difficult, and at times boring, tasks that make up life as an elected official.
All that said, these elections have left both of the UK’s political parties facing some uncomfortable truths. Nigel Farage has worked out a formula that undermines them both. The inevitable conclusion is that Reform will only grow in strength between now and the next election.
As he attempts to mount a defence, could Keir Starmer learn anything from his ally Mark Carney, who has just pulled his party off of life support to win an election in Canada? Steve Hewitt notes that while the two men share many traits and values, they’ve taken divergent paths when it comes to handling Donald Trump. While Starmer has cosied up to the US president in the hope of winning a trade deal, Carney has gone on the attack. His win was partially off the back of a wave of nationalistic sentiment inspired by Trump’s desire to make Canada the “51st state”. British voters are also less and less enamoured of Trump, so it’s possible that
standing up to him is the better option for Starmer.
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