Five months on from the first Russian invasion, the war in Ukraine looks increasingly like a quagmire. Relentless, often indiscriminate Russian bombardment is met with increasing supplies of Western arms and intelligence. Both sides threaten to escalate; neither seems willing to compromise.
The chances of a peace agreement seem remote, especially with Russia now saying any negotiations would be on its own terms – without saying what those terms might be. But as international law expert Alexander Gillespie argues, this puts the onus on Ukraine and its Western backers to propose terms of their own.
That won’t be easy, and several big questions surround the setting out of any bottom lines: should Russia be economically liable for restoration of the damage caused by its invasion? Should those accused of war crimes be brought to justice? Should Ukraine’s territorial integrity be retained, or should the country be divided and parts ceded to Russia? What would ongoing security guarantees for the region look like?
Finally, and perhaps most significantly, Gillespie asks: even if an agreement can be hammered out over Ukraine, will the precedents and perverse incentives it creates be tolerable?
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Finlay Macdonald
Senior Editor, New Zealand
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Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato
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James Watson, The University of Queensland
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